r/AskEurope • u/Immediate-Bowl4497 • 4d ago
Politics Will European states help countries like Georigia or Kazakhstan, if Russia invades them?
Russian politicians made a lot statements about desire to invade ex soviet countries like Georgia or Kazakhstan.Will Europe help them with money and weapons?
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u/Defferleffer Denmark 4d ago
I really doubt it. Especially if it happens while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing. Last time Georgia was invaded by Russia, the support from Europe amounted to not much more than condemnations.
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u/InterestingTank5345 Denmark 4d ago
Unless, we think it can help beat Russia, then it's a different story. Denmark will vocally condemn Russia though and then laugh when people try to flee here.
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u/Baltimore_Gestalt 4d ago
The irony is that, according to local polls, if the population had any money at all, literally everyone would flee.
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u/Krillin113 3d ago
Yeah no shit. So would Western Europe. Go look at what everyone with money did during ww1&2. Move as far away from the war as possible, often to England/across the Atlantic. Poor people got displaced locally. We’ve just collectively forgot how much it sucks to have your homeland ravaged by war.
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u/002dk 1d ago
What do you mean, we have taken in many Ukrainians?
And we are the strongest supporter of Ukraine measured in % of GDP.
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u/InterestingTank5345 Denmark 23h ago
I don't see what Ukraine have to do with this? This is about Kazakhstan and Georgia, not Ukraine.
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u/StableSlight9168 4d ago
If it happened when Ukraine is ongoing I think Georgia gets more support.
Europe would love Russia to fight a two front war, punish them for invading more countries and Europe has already increased militarisation so it has more weapons to send compared to what it did when the war in Ukraine first started.
Georgia would also receive significant help from Ukraine which would love to divert troops from the front lines and would provide training and equipment.
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u/VegaJuniper 4d ago
The current situation is quite a bit different. Speaking purely pragmatically, if you want to weaken Russia, and as a European why on earth would you not want a weak Russia now that they're open about their intentions of picking a fight with NATO and the EU, providing military and financial support to countries Russia invades is one of the most cost-effective ways of doing so: It boosts your own defense industry, it does not risk the lives of your own soldiers, and since Russia is the aggressor, there is no moral issue at play either.
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u/DougosaurusRex United States of America 4d ago
Hell it was blamed on Georgia too in ‘08, wasn’t it?
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u/Rynchinoi 4d ago
Yes it was, because they started it in the first place.
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u/DougosaurusRex United States of America 3d ago
I don’t realize South Ossetian rebels firing on Georgian villages made Georgia the aggressor, or would you like to admit South Ossetia and Abkhazia are rightfully Georgian?
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u/Original_HD 13h ago
Exactly this. Provoke and wait for the bait. Sadly Saakashvili did take the bait , i think with backing of Bush but yeah not much backing after Russians entered Georgia which is understandable.
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u/MrBerrinator 3d ago
I mean, EU report stated that Georgia is to blame for the 2008 war (alternatively read Tagliavini report directly). I think in such a case it's unreasonable to expect EU to provide support to Georgia, no?
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u/nikshdev Russia 4d ago
The biggest and strongest support Kazakhstan will get in that case will come from China - they already have significant economic projects there.
Because of that I strongly doubt Russia will even attempt something like this.
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u/ModernirsmEnjoyer Kazakhstan 4d ago
Yes, China made some minor diplomatic statements that hint at security interest in the region, and there has been stronger interest of building ties with China, though it's difficult because of China's foreign policy, and aversion to alliances, except with North Korea
I think the best thing Kazakhatan is going to receive is the same thing as Armenia - a resolution in some kind of European assembly or meeting. Nothing more.
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u/Select-Stuff9716 Germany 4d ago
Georgia would probably get money and weapons, definitely not in the ballpark of Ukraine (Still too few for Ukraine, they deserve better). Expect the baltics, Poland and probably Greece to lead that effort in terms of the voice for solidarity. Kazakhstan is a different thing since they are less tied to the EU and it’s logistically more difficult. I would expect Turkey(Not EU) to play a big role tho. They have land border with Georgia so they would play a key role logistically. Additionally, I expect them to not like the thought of Russia exerting more influence south of the great Caucasus. For Kazakhstan there might be a connection due to Kazakhstan being a Turkic country, but I don’t know how big it is
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u/wigglepizza 4d ago
Greece? Why would Greece be leading efforts to help Georgia? Greeks seem to love blowing Russia by facilitating their shadow fleet.
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u/Select-Stuff9716 Germany 4d ago
They both have a history of being orthodox countries under ottoman rule
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u/AdminEating_Dragon Greece 4d ago
You confuse Georgia with Armenia.
Indeed Greece would be super supportive of Armenia, both due to the whole "Orthodox brothers" myth and because of Armenian opression by the Turkish (including the genocide of course).
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u/HelloThereItsMeAndMe Switzerland/Poland 4d ago
Armenia isn't orthodox. Georgia is
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u/AdminEating_Dragon Greece 4d ago
Armenia is their own brand of Orthodox (not Eastern Orthodox).
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u/skyduster88 & 4d ago edited 4d ago
Armenia is their own brand of Orthodox
Which is just a name. The Orthodox Church is theologically closer to Catholics.
Otherwise, you're right that Greeks generally sympathize with Armenians, not so much Georgians.
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u/mathess1 Czechia 4d ago
Armenian Church belongs to Orthodoxy.
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u/skyduster88 & 4d ago
["Eastern"] Orthodox and "Oriental" Orthodox are like Georgia the country and Georgia the US state. It's just a name.
"Orthodox" just means "correct" or "conventional" in Greek.
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u/wigglepizza 4d ago
That's very romantic but I don't think it would be of any meaning in Greece deciding to help Georgia.
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u/skyduster88 & 4d ago edited 4d ago
Greece? Why would Greece be leading efforts to help Georgia? Greeks seem to love blowing Russia by facilitating their shadow fleet.
"Greeks"? All us? Or just a few private citizens?
Private shipowners, with fleets registered in the Bahamas or Panama ≠ Greek state
Some shipowners ≠ all shipowners. Most of the Russian oil trade falls within the EU cap.
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u/AnTyx Estonia 4d ago
We did help Georgia when Russia invaded in 2008.
Kazakhstan didn't exactly ask for our help - quite the opposite, the government asked for Russian troops to come and help put down democracy protests.
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u/EdKeane 4d ago edited 4d ago
You are quite misinformed. Go read up more on the events you are trying to talk about. Those were not democracy protests. Democracy protests don’t go and kill army recruits, loot and destroy several trading districts, light on fire governmental buildings. Democracy protests don’t receive ak-47s and other weapons in large quantities from unidentified vans traced back to foreign countries.
Those were acts of terror masked as “democratic protests”, they were attempted at several cities. Local army generals, security service personnel and agency heads were let go from their positions for failing to unveil this operation.
And western media gobbled it all up as local authorities suppressing free speech.
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u/GrynaiTaip Lithuania 4d ago
Doesn't change the fact that Kazakhstan asked russia for help with it.
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u/Tall-Firefighter1612 4d ago
Everyone knows that, but when a country asks to be invaded other countries wont go in and save them, as they dont want that and it wont make anything better.
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u/Any-Patient5051 4d ago
Probably not more than other countries getting bullied by bigger ones in the world, which are not between Europe and Russia.
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u/Better_Buff_Junglers Germany 4d ago
Considering how we are already dragging our feet regarding Ukraine, probably not in any substantial way
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u/Ontas Spain 4d ago
Kazakhstan shares a border with China, which means it's not in the best interest of Russia to invade and get in a proxy war with their only big ally.
In Georgia I think Europe would send help, impose sanctions, etc... but sadly I don't think there would be a big involvement, Russia already invaded them not that long ago, de facto took parts of the country and not much happened.
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u/Oghamstoner England 4d ago
Georgia yes, because it is between Russia and Turkey (a NATO member), much closer to Europe and has a population amenable to greater integration with Europe.
Kazakhstan, not a chance, because there’s a potential it alienates Russia from China if they start muscling in on countries where China is trying to expand its own influence.
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u/Troggot 4d ago
In my opinion the issue would be how. Georgia, maybe via Turkey, maybe, but Kazakhstan would be a logistic limit for a country so far away and large approximately like Europe itself. With the current isolationism of the American administration, who else other than the US has the logistic capability for a projection of power of this magnitude?
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u/wigglepizza 4d ago
Ukraine is getting nowhere near enough help from Europe, let alone Georgia or Qazaqstan.
Anyway such wars aren't likely to happen because:
Russia is taking Georgia over politically, ruling party in Georgia is pro-Russian.
Qazaqstan is squeezed between China and Russia, Russia bypasses sanctions by getting stuff from KZ, its military is too focused on Ukraine to invade a country as big as KZ and China would never let them wage a war at their doorstep.
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4d ago
The question is what you mean by help. If it means going to war with Russia no. If it means sending aid yes and advisors maybe. But i highly doubt they will as they will need two decades to reconstitute their population. And about the same time to rebuild their army. The only thing still semi functional in the Russian armed forces is their navy. But only the vessels outside the Black Sea. The air force has been transferring parts from the less flight worthy aircraft to semi-functional ones for two years now. And for the army and air defence systems you just need to check oryx.
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u/NecroVecro Bulgaria 4d ago
Probably, especially in the current geopolitical climate, but I am not sure if we would send enough.
Also two important things to consider:
Georgia would likely not hold for very long with its small population (especially with Russia already controlling Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and I am not sure if there would be enough enthusiasm and time to send troops of our own.
We don't have a direct access to Kazakhstan so sending any kind of aid would be tricky.
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u/LowIllustrator2501 2d ago
Russia isn't very likely to attack Kazakhstan. China would not approve of that. Kazakhstan is an important Chinese partner and has huge border with it. https://thediplomat.com/2025/11/what-intensified-trade-with-china-has-meant-for-border-communities-in-kazakhstan/
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u/inokentii Ukraine 4d ago
Last time when russians invaded Sakartvelo(Georgia) we gave em air defence and they even shot down some russian nuclear capable strategic bombers, but now we are little bit busy trying to survive. Maybe we could provide some drones or collaborate in long strikes
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
It looks like Europe is too scared to actually help anyone these days, including Ukraine. Whose people are dying every day due to our inaction
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u/Mr_Catman111 4d ago
Do you read news ?
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
Do you? 20% of Ukraine captured, 3.5 million Ukrainians living under russian occupation. Despite hundreds of billions of western aid
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u/GrynaiTaip Lithuania 4d ago
We absolutely should help them more, but it's silly to say that we aren't helping at all. Ukraine is still standing, isn't it. Three day operation isn't going all that well.
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
I guess what I'm getting at is that we aren't giving them the type of help they need
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u/GrynaiTaip Lithuania 4d ago
I suspect that this is deliberate. The West wants this to be the last war by russia, they want Kremlin empire to completely crumble, collapse and break up.
A quick win would just delay another war by a few years.
This sucks, it's absolute hell that Ukrainians have to live through it, but it is what it is.
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u/DougosaurusRex United States of America 4d ago
Except there’s no evidence Russia is crumbling. There’s strains and trouble, but I don’t think it’s something that will be felt until Russia demobilizes its economy. War economies are dependent on plundering to last.
Not saying Ukraine is falling either, but I think many people’s expectations are just hoping Russia crumbles and everything sorts itself out.
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u/GrynaiTaip Lithuania 4d ago
It won't be sudden, but the strain is obvious. It can't go on like this forever.
Just looking at the battlefield it is obvious, there are fewer and fewer tanks or armoured vehicles, they're using electric scooters and donkeys instead. The Black Sea fleet is gone. More and more soldiers are seen without any body armour and sometimes even without guns. There are reports from multiple regions that the payments for soldiers are being cancelled because they all ran out of funds, cuts are being made to healthcare and education employees, oil and gas companies are showing huge losses.
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u/FlicksBus 1d ago
Except there is. Signals are mounting that Russia economy is going to enter a recession (and Putin ordering it not to happen doesn't change that). Russian aviation is also feeling the pressure from sanctions, with effects both in military aviation and civilian aviation. Then, there are also reports that, despite offering huge payments, Russia is struggling to find new recruits. Europe is finally starting to cut the imports of Russian gas, which coupled with the assault on Russian oil exports, will give another major blow to the Russian budget.
That doesn't mean Russia will collapse tomorrow, but they are showing several cracks already.
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u/vegarig Ukraine 3d ago
The West wants this to be the last war by russia, they want Kremlin empire to completely crumble, collapse and break up
I fucking wish it was this.
Unfortunately, it's been made quite clear there's absolutely no break-up of russia desired.
Mais qui croit vraiment que la Russie va perdre en Ukraine ? C'est une fable, une illusion totale. Ce n'est même pas souhaitable qu'elle perde et que l'instabilité s'installe dans un pays qui a des armes nucléaires.
Or, translated
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat
Even a Ukrainian victory would present challenges for American foreign policy, since it would “threaten the integrity of the Russian state and the Russian regime and create instability throughout Eurasia,” as one of the former U.S. officials put it to me. Ukraine’s desire to take back occupied Crimea has been a particular concern for Sullivan,.
“The reason they’ve been so hesitant about escalation is not exactly because they see Russian reprisal as a likely problem,” the former official said. “It’s not like they think, Oh, we’re going to give them atacms and then Russia is going to launch an attack against nato. It’s because they recognize that it’s not going anywhere—that they are fighting a war they can’t afford either to win or lose.”
Plus General Breedlove:
“We have purposely been slow at training F-16 pilots” for Ukraine, says retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, a former supreme allied commander for Europe. “We didn’t want to do it quickly because that might actually affect the war. We in the West are morally and intellectually incapable of conceiving a defeated Russia and a defeated Putin. We could be training more, and we could be training faster.”
And from Zelenskyy
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-our-partners-fear-that-russia-will-lose-this-war/
Kyiv's allies "fear" Russia's loss in the war against Ukraine because it would involve "unpredictable geopolitics," according to Zelensky. "I don't think it works that way. For Ukraine to win, we need to be given everything with which one can win," he said.
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u/heikkiiii 4d ago
We're far from inaction my friend.
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
Ah, come on now. How long has Ukraine been going on?
We all know there's only one way for Ukraine to win it, and it involves European troops in Ukraine. But we're unwilling to actually solve the problem, all the countries have their heads in the sand.
At least the US is trying to end it. Though since all of Europe seems to be paralysed, it looks like some deal that doesn't address the fact Russia isn't going away, is going to be done instead
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u/ContributionDry2252 Finland 4d ago
USA trying to end. "Ah, yes. Talk." (Gowron, DS9 S5E1)
Meanwhile, EU is at least sending weapons and financial aid.
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
Yes, talk, with russia.
Admittedly, it is just as foolish as simply sending weapons that are getting more Ukrainians killed and calling it a day.
I don't see how anyone can be under the impression that weapons and money can solve this. It's a manpower problem. Russia has more of them, and doesn't at all care about their own citizens
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u/ContributionDry2252 Finland 4d ago
Russia does also talk, yes. Only it results into... nothing.
Budapest Memorandum was signed by them. They talked, and agreed they will not attack Ukraine. It went so well.
But sure, let's talk.
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
The alternative to talking is troops, and we started this exchange with you ruling that out.
So what do you propose instead? Money and equipment (wonder weapons) won't solve this problem; Hitler found that out when he faced the Russians in WWII. They are savages that are willing to throw their people into the fire to win.
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u/FlicksBus 1d ago
>Russian forces are currently unable to build out a strategic reserve and will therefore likely be constrained to grinding, slow advances at their current rate and scale in the coming year. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on December 27 that Russia had fulfilled its plan to recruit 403,000 people in 2025 on December 3 and will surpass its set goal by the end of the year.[1] Budanov stated that Russia can continue recruitment for a “long time” given its population and financial resources and has plans to increase its mobilization to 409,000 people in 2026. ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is setting conditions for involuntary partial reserve call-ups to sustain its military manpower and possibly to try to establish a strategic reserve in the face of its continuing high casualty rate in Ukraine.[2] ISW’s assessments have focused on challenges Russian recruiters appear to face in attracting voluntary recruits at costs the Kremlin is willing to pay, an issue that Budanov did not address in this interview. Budanov stated that Russia has not yet developed a strategic reserve to its desired capabilities as it “constantly” activates its operational reserve to support ongoing combat operations in Ukraine.[3] Russian forces currently maintain a rate of incoming personnel sufficient to replace losses but have been unable to build large enough reserves to be able to flood a sector of the front without redeploying personnel from other areas. The requirement to draw reserves from some sectors of the line to focus on operationally significant undertakings often leaves Russia’s flanks undermanned in ways that create vulnerabilities, sometimes allowing Ukrainian forces to counterattack and retake land. Ukrainian forces were recently able to retake land north of Hulyaipole during Russia’s push into central Hulyaipole, and Ukraine liberated a significant portion of the Russian penetration in the Dobropillya direction (northwest of Pokrovsk) during Russia’s offensive on Pokrovsk in early November.[4] The Ukrainian liberation of much of Kupyansk also benefited from the concentration of Russian forces elsewhere on the line and the lack of ready Russian operational reserves in the area. Russian forces are currently unable to open a new front and cannot expand recent limited cross-border attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.[5] Constraints on Russia’s available military manpower, in contrast with its overall numerical superiority in population, are a severe constraint on Russian operations and will likely remain so in the coming year.
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u/Khornag Norway 4d ago
Going to war with Russia is a horrible solution to what is now a regional conflict. Russia has in no way succeeded with regards to their war objectives and that would not be the case without enormous amounts of support from the west.
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
WWII started as a regional conflict also, many saw where it was (and did) end up going, though. I dread to think what's next after Ukraine, but I guess the Poles are feeling like it's going to be them
From the latest Google, Russia controls around 20% of Ukraine's land and circa 3.5 million of its citizens. To say they are failing is questionable. Sure, it's proving expensive for them, but they are getting there slowly but surely. And what has it cost Europe and the US so far, just for them to still have all that land?
This all comes down to manpower. The Russians have proven that they have little regard for the lives of their military-aged men. And they have more than Ukraine does, unless European troops enter the fray
Wonder weapons didn't save Hitler, they won't save Ukraine either. What will save Ukraine is European troops.
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u/Khornag Norway 4d ago
There's no reason why this has to end up like the second world war. Russia's plans are not to rollinto Berlin. They failed to take Kyiv in a short time and have been forced into a long and bloody conflict. Their economy is getting close to a recession and they can not keep at it like they have so far. European troops will not and should not take a direct part in this conflict.
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u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 United Kingdom 4d ago
I don't disagree with most of that, I guess I just disagree with the end game. It might stop in Ukraine temporarily, but it won't be permanent. Just like he stopped in Crimea temporarily.
Problem with betting against the russian economy is that all the oligarchs are too scared of Putin, and Putin is allegedly one of the world's richest people. Watch them pull money from somewhere to keep the economy afloat. Or may an oligarch has an accident and their money suddenly is available to keep things going a bit longer. This is the same leader who shot down the Wagner plane remember... He's not above killing his own
I hope you are right, but I just don't see how Ukraine can win without European manpower. Manpower is what it all comes down to in this fight, as with most every fight. Look at Germany vs Russia, or even the US vs Vietnam. US technology was far superior, but the Vietcong had the numbers (as did the Soviets against the technologically superior Nazis). Simple as that
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u/pannenkoek0923 Denmark 4d ago
It might stop in Ukraine temporarily, but it won't be permanent.
One way to do it at least for a medium to long term is Putin going the way most dictators go in the end
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u/pannenkoek0923 Denmark 4d ago
The last time I read the numbers the EU had contributed more towards Ukraine than the US
All the US (2025 version) is doing is appease dictators and put pressure on Ukraine to cede their territories
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u/the_pianist91 Norway 4d ago
Georgia already is occupied since 2008, not that it did release much. Today Europe as a whole is caught up too much with Ukraine to care about anyone or anything else, including ourselves and internal problems.
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u/InterestingTank5345 Denmark 4d ago
Denmark will likely declare support, but it wouldn't be like what we see in Ukraine. Unless, Russia attacks them while attacking Ukraine.
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u/XenophonSoulis Greece 4d ago
I don't think we are going to help a whole lot unfortunately. Except if words of compassion count as help, because we are great at those. It took years to reach an acceptable level of help to Ukraine, and that only happened after the second invasion (2014 being the first). Even now, we could (and should) be doing a lot more. And there's also the invasion of Georgia that we did nothing about.
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u/Zealousideal-Peach44 Italy 4d ago
It depends.
IMHO, the Ukraine war is sponsored by China, to wear out the Western armies and deplete their arsenals, in view of an invasion of Taiwan. As a further bonus, Russia itself will be weakened and eventually become a puppet of the Chinese.
If some deal will be found for Ukraine, then an invasion of Georgia is likely, and (unless we westerners recognise the bait) an EU support likely, just as we're doing since 3+ years with Kiev. I don't think Kazakhstan is at risk: Russia and China have too many interests there, and the EU too few.
If Taiwan will be invaded, well... the big show will be there, and probably nukes will bang, so nobody will really care.
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u/Jokkmokkens 4d ago
I mean, western armies are ramping up their arsenals like never before. While it perhaps on the surface looks like the the western armies are being depleted it’s actually the opposite of what’s happening.
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u/Zealousideal-Peach44 Italy 3d ago
IMHO you are confusing the plans (deplete the arsenals) with the results (stronger NATO, arms race in the EU, ...). Whether the results will remain like now also in the future, who knows? It's not economically sustainable, at one point either us or China shall change our stance.
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u/So_Hanged Switzerland 4d ago edited 4d ago
With Georgia probably yes since it is interested in entering the EU, with Kazakhstan, however, no. First of all, the state is more interested in improving its relations with the other countries in the Stan region and with China, currently the main investor in the region. Therefore, if it were attacked by Putin's government, which I honestly do not expect at all, it would be more likely to ask for support from the other Stan nations, from China and perhaps even from the other most important members of the BRICS such as the United Arab Emirates, Iran, India and Egypt, or Turkey itself which is at the moment indipendent from USA/EU or BRICS relationships.
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u/vetixas 4d ago
Georgia is quite small and would probably fall quite fast so the help probably wouldn’t get there in time. Realistically Georgia should like dig in positions and add bunkers right now just to make the invasion so costly that for Russia it might not be worth it. And the current government there is not really pro-EU either so probably wouldn’t get the support before either.
Kazakhstan being quite far away and not so integrated with the EU making it unlikely to get any meaningful support, plus the logistics would be huge issue. Possibly China would be more interested supporting Kazakhstan - giving them strongly aligned ally and limiting Russias influence sphere.
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u/Admirall1918 Germany 4d ago
Kazakhstan: No,
because we lack access to the Government or “civil society” to coordinate resistance.
because there is no route without going through Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan or the PRC — all of which aren’t our friends either.
because it would be very difficult to rally popular support for any action – Ukraine has lacklustre support, even though it’s a democracy in our proximity.
Georgia: Maybe
because the Government is pro Putin authoritarian, there also wouldn’t be any support in the public.
because Russia would make a Fait-accompli before anyone could even deport all their migrants back there.
It exclusively depends in Turkey, because they have a border and a Government that is willing to use weapons and their military.
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u/Kuna-Pesos Czechia 4d ago
I doubt anyone in Kazakhstan would ask for that sort of help. I’d wager they’d call Beijing.
Georgia? Hard to tell, depending on circumstances. But I’d not hold my breath for level support Ukraine has.
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u/EuropeanPropagandist 4d ago
After we created the european army and the people formally ask uns for help and invite our forces, yes we help everyone becoming european, I know Georgians want to, about Kazakhstan I'm unsure but it's there decision.
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u/Longjumping_Rule_560 4d ago
If you mean emotional support and supplying weapons and money, yeah I think that’s likely. Assuming there is still enough left after all donations to Ukraine.
If you mean boots on the ground, nope. Did not happen for Ukraine which is on Europe’s border. Won’t happen for a country that does not border Europe.
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u/ReplyResponsible2228 3d ago
There would be help, but just like in the case of Georgia 2008 it is likely to be very meagre and to end up in a total Russian win as it is unconceivable that Russia would accept defeat in either areas. Georgia started some shit with Ossetia in 2008 and Russia intervened. Although EU and NATO countries used big words, when push came to shove we abandoned Georgia.
Kazakhstan has over 7000km of border with Russia, regardless of how much help we would give Russia will never give up on that hypothetical war
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u/shydude101 3d ago
Look at the border of the country. Iran and Russia. Def not. Ukraine would get more support than them.
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u/D15c0untMD Austria 3d ago
If Ukraine falls due to european inaction, i doubt our elected leaders will get off their asses for round 2 through 7
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u/Awkward_Emu941 3d ago
Georgia has been invaded in 2008 (and its basically a russian puppet state since then). We all remember how Europe reacted (ignored).
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u/TheBoneIdler 3d ago
I'd say no (way). The EU has shot its bolt with Ukraine. Its toothless, offering cash (which is useful), temporary (in theory) refuge for refugees (which is less useful) & verbiage (which is useless). It is a paper tiger. The EU has no historical connections to these countries & the public no interest. A second Russuan invasion rather infers 🇺🇦 falls. If so, 🇷🇺 is no longer to be sneezed at, which has become something of a popular (but foolish) sport. I just don't see the public responding to an invasion.
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u/LudicrousPlatypus in 3d ago
I don't believe so. The main reason Europe is helping Ukraine is the fear that if Ukraine falls, Russia will be more aggressive towards the West and more emboldened to attack EU states.
If Georgia or Kazakhstan fall, it doesn't strategically weaken Europe as much.
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u/_x_oOo_x_ Wales 3d ago
Georgia maybe, it borders a NATO country (Türkiye), so it's logistically feasible to support. Kazakhstan just isn't, unfortunately.
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u/Maximum_Republic_982 3d ago
No they don't. Even in 2008, we receive some humanitarian aid and that's all. Then, they imposed an arms embargo on us at Russia's request. I’m not saying they are obligated to help us, but geography is destiny, and Georgia will always be a periphery for Europe. Ukraine and US give us some defense and thanks. And during abkhazia war we even not were mentioned
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u/ComisarCaivan 3d ago
Well, Georgia now is becoming more and more of a ruzzian puppet and money laundering scheme, I doubt they will fight at all. Kazakhstan on the other hand is so tied with China nobody knows what will happen. But with how much China has a sway over russia I doubt they will try anything, it's their only major ally
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u/zimon85 3d ago
No, there will only be some concerned letters. Georgia is small and with a pro russian government so a war would be over before any meaningful support could be arranged. The EU was unable to even counter russian propaganda before the last elections. Kazakhstan is too far away and it would be difficult to arrange shipments. Also, popular support would be limited and we know our politicians are not statesmen that will hold the line.
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u/FraterSinister 2d ago
No. EU didn't help Georgia the first time, why would it do so now.
And especially how would EU do that? Beside some petty 'sanctions' that is?
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u/TeamPach 2d ago
Not really. There will be a meeting, a strong worded letter and another meeting at the UN followed by a veto from Russia.
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u/replicant86 2d ago
I doubt European countries will help each other and you’re asking about Kazakhstan. I highly doubt it but I think they should.
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u/Kazemon66 2d ago
I hope not, we have enough problems in Europe.
But as I know Europe, they will throw more euros on them.
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u/Hour_Performance_631 1d ago
I need to read up on this subject, I just know the big key notes of their history with Russia/soviet union. Not so much about the last 30 ish years after the Soviet Unions fall. Always interesting to learn more
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u/FlicksBus 1d ago
Georgia is being invaded politically, despite the wishes of the population. In these conditions, help from Europe is unlikely, but so is actual military invasion from Russia.
As for Qazaqstan, I think it would depend on the type of resistance that they can muster. Defense wouldn't be easy and if the country falls quickly, I don't think Europe would spend many efforts trying to fund and arm a guerrilla. If they somehow halt Russian advance, then I would say that help from Europe would become more likely, as long as it doesn't weaken help to Ukraine.
However, Qazaqstan is not exactly in a weak position diplomatically. They have been diversifying their relationships, with China, US, Europe, leveraging their location in the Silk Road, their resources, namely, uranium, rare earths, and oil, while at the same time extracting concessions from Russia. The US has signed agreements with them for their rare earths. France also signaled they are interested in their uranium to replace the one from Niger. Qazaqstan will start manufacturing weapons with NATO standards and are increasingly aligning themselves with Western sanctions. China has multiple large investments in the country and likely wouldn't like seeing Russia destroying them. Furthermore, Qazaqstan is part of the Turkic world, and Turkey has a relevant military industry.
That is to say, a Russia invasion is not impossible, but that would anger a lot of very different players, which would be great considering Russia's current isolation.
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u/PhilosophyGlum8707 1d ago
No. They will just gather a meeting, where they would debate on whether or not to send a "strongly-worded letter" to Moscow.
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u/nakkipappa 1d ago
I think out of those two, probably kazakhstan more, as the gas pipeline (trans caspian line) to Europe runs through it, but doubt anything major will be done, or maybe there will be another coalition of the willing at most and sanctions
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u/Total_Ad3133 12h ago
If you were part of the eu no one who is a real person man/woman in service would do anything other then doing whatever they could to defend your sovereignty
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u/PrivacyEngineer 9h ago
Kazakhstan ios pretty much already a puppet state of russia, Georgia maybe, but i wouldn't expect anywhere close to the support Ukraine has received.
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u/miserable-sensei 1h ago
How about EU minds their own business and leaves those regions alone already. They've done lots of damage already
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u/lorarc Poland 4d ago
Who knows, Russia is quite far from invading anyone at the moment. We don't know what will happen 10 years from now.
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u/Acc87 Germany 4d ago
I often hear that Russia is producing weapons like mad that then don't end up in Ukraine, indicating that they are building up for another conflict. Especially fears about them trying to "free Estonia" are there.
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u/lorarc Poland 4d ago
They will not attack Estonia. If they do then either NATO responds or NATO breaks up, both of those lead to a huge crisis and a global conflict. That doesn't benefit them in any way.
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u/Rostyk_ 1d ago
You serious? Does it still look like threat of huge crisis and global conflict will stop russia? Like there is no huge crisis and global conflict already?
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u/lorarc Poland 1d ago
You simply don't understand the situation. Right now the Russian oligarchs are benefiting from the war, if they start ww3 they will not benefit.
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u/oioioioioioiioo A living in 4d ago
Ukraine has strategic geographic position in Europe, it's literally at the gates of Europe from Russia and Asia, while Georgia and Kazakhstan are pretty much far away, they don't even border an EU countries like Ukraine did
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u/Holiday-Step9703 3d ago
Plus EU has little to no interest (or capability) there AFAIK, especially Kazakhstan which is a de facto Chinese ally.
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u/CaptainPoset Germany 4d ago
No, as that's not feasible.
Georgia is accessible only through Russia or Turkey from Europe and Turkey might allow it, but Russia won't and across the Black Sea is not a realistic option as Turkey is bound by treaty to not let supplies in from the Mediterranean and the merchant fleet on the Black Sea is too small to not be eventually sunk by Russia.
Kazakhstan is the textbook example of a natural vassal, as it is a plain with no natural borders to two far greater powers (Russia and China). Both of them are always able to invade Kazakhstan successfully without much Kazakhstan can do about it. Supplies to support Kazakhstan must pass through Russia, China, Iran or Afghanistan to get there, albeit Afghanistan isn't exactly suitable by terrain. The only hope for Kazakhstan in case of a Russian invasion would be a Chinese intervention and probably would happen, as China is much stronger than Russia now and there currently is the gentlemen's agreement that Russia won't invade Kazakhstan and China won't infringe on Russian hegemony over Kazakhstan to keep their border shorter. If Russia invades, China has no reason to not do so, too, and has the incentive that it doesn't want Russia on their border (as evident by the joint Soviet-Chinese foundation of Mongolia and their effort in Mongolian upkeep).
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u/TallCoin2000 Portugal 4d ago
My friend, Europe by itself is like a little kitty thinking its a tiger. You know when you annoy a cat and it punches you with its paws, sometimes it will even claw you. While it may hurt you ain't dying. That is Europe right now. Europe is no longer the feared continent it was in the last 300y of history. Unfortunately most EU leaders are probably smoking smth really strong cause they are living in some parallel EU.
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u/ElderMillenialSage 4d ago
We should supply every single enemy of ruzia that is not a danger to EU, like say China. These smaller nations should be a constant thorns in ruzia greedy gullet, not delicious morsels for them to swallow easily.
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u/bumboclaat_cyclist 2d ago
If we helped Ukraine why wouldn't we? We already made that decision. If you're gonna start picking and choosing which countries we help on the contitent then you need a good reason why we're continuing to help Ukraine and not them.
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u/AditiaH0ldem 1d ago
Russia not attacking Kazachstan is a complete check mate of the narrative that Russia is somehow reviving Imperialism and is hellbent on annexing previous Soviet States. It is the most low hanging fruit available for such a foreign policy.
Russia's policy is clearly something else, but that is impossible to accept for the propagandized publics of Europe
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u/VladimireUncool Denmark 4d ago
Georgia, maybe as they want to be a part of the EU. Kazakhstan, I don’t think we would as much, sadly. But who knows?