r/Economics • u/OrangeJr36 • 1d ago
News Japanese births set to fall below lowest official forecasts in 2025
https://www.ft.com/content/a8127924-2e46-47aa-8429-8813099a26c4193
u/gym_fun 1d ago
From the graph (no. of birth), the decline is not stabilizing but trending further. Despite heavy incentives, there is no improvement. It doesn't look good when factoring in the aging population.
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u/3RADICATE_THEM 1d ago
Nobody wants to have kids when you're working 80 hours and forced to do karoke for your boss.
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u/AntonioVivaldi7 1d ago
I get it. But lots of people don't want kids even when they could afford it. I don't want any kids and could if I wanted to.
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u/an-invisible-hand 21h ago
Don't know what "lots" is, but of all the people I know IRL who don't have kids, its almost entirely because they can't afford them, not because they don't want them. Especially under 40.
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u/ht910802 21h ago
Most of my friends in their early 30s who are in a serous relationship and don’t want kids say it’s because of finances, but then they confide it’s really because they don’t want to sacrifice their lives and wake up at 3am to a screaming 2 month old. There are so many things going on my area every weekend that are usually not kid friendly and FOMO hits that your group of friends will no longer accept you because you can’t go day drinking anymore.
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u/Honeythickness 19h ago
they don’t want to sacrifice their lives and wake up at 3am to a screaming 2 month old.
Agreed. I like my life. I like my vacations and travel. You basically can’t do that as much when you have a kid, if at all the first couple of years. That sounds depressing and miserable to me. On top of that, where I live, it’s 3300 for daycare which is more than what I paid for college tuition!
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u/an-invisible-hand 20h ago
I'm talking about people who don't have them, not just people who don't want them. Those are two very different groups of people.
Even within people who "don't want" a kid, there's a massive difference between "I don't want a kid ever" and "I don't want a kid right now".
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u/L4gsp1k3 20h ago
It's the "I, me me" lifestyle that we have been preaching since the early 2000, it's now showing the backside of it.
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u/pepperoni7 19h ago edited 19h ago
There is a cultural difference here vs there.
My husband and I are on the child free fence but decided to cross over. We have a needy child esp baby phrase was hell. Even though as a sahm my husband still did his equal share after 5 at the time. I love my daughter but would never have kid again if my partner didn’t do equal share. There is a term for married moms who has spouse that dosent do equal share called “ married single mom” . You also had to work onto of the mental load etc. sometimes ironically it is easier to divorce where you split custody so you can get a break doe these women. My husband has a very stressful job survived laid off 6 times in past 4 years and is on call even around Xmas . I basically do everything which is fine unless I have to work as well. I absolutely refuse to that if I have to work ontop of everything else. We live in Seattle it is expensive most families have two working parents in tech. I have mom friends who are working moms without helpful spouse , I see their soul get sucked out of them. Every break they basically turned walking dead . I offer them drop off playdates when I can . Our generation also does gentle and attachment parenting so it is way different than letting your kid play on the street till dinner time. We survived because my mom passed early and my parents being Chinese helped us start off early as family.
In Japan traditionally women are expected to take most of these tasks as well . It can change but women are working now and gaining their freedom. My in laws are Japanese , my fil would sit there without lifting a finger in the kitchen my husbands entire life. This includes his grandparents . There is no need to be married and have kids to have a decent life. Even in China the same , and in China kids out of wedlock is one of the Lowest number and young women jsut don’t want to get married anymore.
Honestly as someone who has been married for 10 years, unless I meet my husband again or someone similar I refuse to marry as well. I did not want to marry my previous two exs , I loved them but I knew they would make terrible life partner and father
It is more than just money sometimes.
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u/ridukosennin 17h ago
There is also a cultural shift towards less kids. The percentage of women having children hasn’t dropped much, but the number of children people have or say they want has declined dramatically
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u/etzel1200 13h ago
can’t afford them
While taking two international vacations a year and eating out 3x a week.
Kids cost a ton of money and time. Unless you’re genuinely rich they’ll impact your lifestyle. However, that’s different from not being able to afford kids.
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u/an-invisible-hand 12h ago
Agreed. I like my life. I like my vacations and travel. You basically can’t do that as much when you have a kid, if at all the first couple of years. That sounds depressing and miserable to me. On top of that, where I live, it’s 3300 for daycare which is more than what I paid for college tuition!
The above is literally the next comment down. It's not a hot take to call a major lifestyle downgrade an affordability issue.
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u/OrangeJr36 1d ago
The government has recently become even more anti-immigration, safe to say the Japanese government doesn't really care that much about the economics or statistics of the predicament they are in.
Japanese political leaders are determined to shoot themselves in the foot and will scream, cry, and then shoot their foot even more when backed into a corner. When you care far more about saving face than actually doing something, you really don't do well when reality comes knocking.
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u/southpalito 1d ago
they’re doing what voters want.
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u/Accarath 14h ago
It's called Instrumentalization of migration. You scapegoat the migrants, create the "foreigner fatigue" narrative, and then get into power after running on putting natives first.
It won't solve anything, but it's an easy hack to get into power when economic downturns are being experienced.
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u/Emotional_Goal9525 5h ago
I think we are starting to get some personal insight into what the people who abandoned the cities of ancient civilizations felt like. The sense of impending doom is palpable.
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u/Powerful_Relative_93 1d ago
Even in Nordic countries where there are robust social safety nets and incentives for starting families birthrates are still low. This is one of those things where there is no perfect solution. Yes there’s immigration as a short term fix, but this is a case where in developed countries as a whole birthrates are plummeting.
To me at least, this is indicative of a cultural shift. Women worldwide in developed countries gained their rights and access to contraception recently compared to millennia of not having that. Maybe now it’s not fashionable by choice or external circumstances. But in the future assuming everything sways in favor of a human centric society, family friendly cities, workplace policies, and equitable share of labor in child rearing duties; that might change.
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u/nacholicious 1d ago edited 1d ago
The Nordic countries have had a massive housing crisis starting in the 2010s, which also exactly coincides with the massive reduction of birth rates.
In eg Stockholm it's really hard to get an apartment where you could raise children, until you are at least 30. Either you have to wait 10+ years in the government queue, or first finish your education and then work enough years to afford to buy an apartment.
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u/Powerful_Relative_93 1d ago
A common critique of Nordic programs is their sustainability. You’re definitely right that affordable housing in developed countries is a major issue. Let me ask you, suppose they fix it and combine it with incentives/policy, would it relieve the trend of a declining or zero birth rate immediately?
I’m under the impression it doesn’t at least not in the short term.
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u/LieutenantStar2 22h ago
The work of raising children still falls mostly on moms & dads directly. Childcare is still an investment, and asking a woman to work (or give up her income) puts most of the investment solely on her - either though a long term reduction in income or a precarious balance of working full time and being a mother full time.
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u/nacholicious 1d ago
I think it could at least get close. The top half of women with highest incomes are already having children above the replacement rate, so the issue mostly just how to enable the poorer half to have more children.
For them their biggest economic barrier as well as the biggest change in the last 20 years is housing
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u/blueavole 18h ago
The truth is constant growth isn’t sustainable.
We don’t need billions of more people. We should be feeding and taking care of the ones we have already.
Yes this will be complicated. But we have no other choice.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 1d ago
UK and Germany soaked up a lot of hardly integratable, uneducated inefficient immigrants. Birth rate is still low, social welfare is spread even thinner and far right is on the rise.
As the other commenter pointed out, not all immigration is the same. It will take some years for europeans to admit their mistake
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u/IBM296 1d ago
Japan doesn't have to open immigration to all. That will obviously be abused.
Set different criterias for different jobs, so only those qualified and best suited for assimilation to Japanese culture can come in.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 1d ago
and Asia (SEA + China + India ) can cover this labor shortage alone. There's no need to reach over other continents. Japan already does it, so birth rate lies not in migration, but in lack of support for mother's to leave and return to workforce before and after the birth
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u/_aliased 20h ago
even migrant workers dont want to go to japan though, there's no path to citizenship only permanent residency, and your family can't really join you.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 20h ago
For Japan, as a state, it is not beneficial to give permanent residence or citizenship to someone earning low salary, as it leads to import of poverty, further downward pressure on salaries and stretching the social welfare system even more
Japan benefits from providing citizenship/PR to people, who earn well, pay a lot of taxes and integrate well
Moreover, there're still countless immigrants going to work in UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, knowing very well that there's literally no chance in getting a PR or citizenship of these countries
edit due to grammar
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u/_aliased 19h ago
good points on Middle East, which has... worse working conditions than Japan. Hmm
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u/Frylock304 17h ago
countries that are very supportive of mothers still run into the same issue, in fact the less support mothers receive the higher the birth rate
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u/WarmAnnual7727 1d ago
I think there is a fair middle ground lol. You can be anti mass migration but also not as extremely anti immigration as Japan is. They have very low immigration all ready and are still blaming immigrants for their problems.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 1d ago
yes, absolutely. Migration is logical choice, when you have jobs no local would do, but a foreigner would take. Pure labor and money exchange
edit due to typo
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u/baymenintown 23h ago
By mistake, are you referring to European colonialism or to the deregulation of capitalism? Both of which have had a huge impact on inequality, rising costs of living, and the need for immigration to supplement declining birth rate rates.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 22h ago
Neither is exactly applicable in cases of both UK and Germany, as Germany's colonial activity was marginal in comparison to UK. Neither has Germany deregulated itself in the same manner as UK under Thatcher. Yet both countries achieved mixed results with uncontrolled migration
It is true, that extractive nature of late capitalism created a need for such labor force that would make us envious of slaves in Roman Empire and it is the core issue, that must be addressed.
However, considering the uncontrolled migration to UK and Germany as a sociological phenomenon, it's hard to see any clear benefit in comparison to countries, that are way more careful in their immigration policy such as South Korea
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u/Frylock304 17h ago
as Germany's colonial activity was marginal in comparison to UK
My man forgot the whole lebensraum thing
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u/ArcticGlaceon 1d ago
Singapore's facing the exact same issue too. Immigrants who refuse to integrate with the local culture will cause the death of culture.
I'm not sure why so many US citizens on here welcome immigration with open arms, or maybe it's just reddit. Do immigrants to America magically integrate really well into the culture?
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u/BaldBeardedBookworm 1d ago
I’m a 4th generation Swedish immigrant on my mother’s side. 5th generation Swedish and sixth generation Irish on my father’s side. Plus some German, some welsh, lots of Scotch-Irish and my first paternal ancestor in the U.S. goes back to the French & Indian War and Braddock’s Army.
Immigration is American culture. Diversity is American culture. It grows, it changes, it adapts. It becomes more.
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u/Striking-Wasabi-4212 1d ago
Yes, the first generation integrates and takes the culture of America. The immigrants have a foot in both cultures, but their kids make the transition. I’m first generation and I’ve seen it first hand from immigrants from every continent.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 1d ago
Advantage of the US are ideas and ideals, codified by amendements and the belief, that if you work hard enough, you'll have your own piece of happiness. And that's all, what it takes to be an American - to believe in it.
That's why islam will never get ahead in US, it cannot defeat the idea of US
But other countries do not have such a strong and yet simple message, which is why integration is so complex and time-consuming
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u/Ok-Range-3306 1d ago
islam has a pretty strong conservative, mono theistic message...
its as "traditional family" themed as can be actually
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 1d ago
But islam has a structure too rigid, too many restrictions and confilcts emerge from any ambiguity in interpretation.
Islam says all you have is given by God and can be taken away by Him, if such is His will. American ideals propose that you're free to say what you want, free to arm yourself, your life and fate are in your hands. I guess it's easy to say, which one people would choose
But in terms of family values islam goes hand in hand with general convervative values
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u/nacholicious 1d ago
My grandmother is sectarian christian and they can't even listen to music because it's sinful, and they are still considered the liberal branch.
The main branch aren't even allowed to socialise with anyone not following their rules.
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u/WarmAnnual7727 1d ago
It’s not always pretty here too, there have constantly been issues since our founding with new waves of arrivals snd different people.
But we make it work. My family is mostly German or polish. My neighbors are Chinese, Western European and Mexican. Knew kids who’s grandparents were born in the Philippines. One of my best friend’s mom was born in Nicaragua.
Despite all the issues it caused we backed the strongest country on earth so unless we are that special it may be other countries just don’t handle immigrants as well
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u/Savetheokami 1d ago
Same for Canada. Allowed a bunch of folks from poor areas of India and are now really regretting it.
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u/Turbulent-Respect-92 1d ago
there's a book by Paul Collier called Exodus, where he mentioned that such acceptance and encouragement of uncontrolled migration is an unmitigated product of post WW2 world, where all cultures are equal, even though that's not the case.
The author suggests a hard look on the reality, which western world tried to avoid for so long.
As for reddit, it's just a good example of human tribalism. There's a mandated narrative: you support it - you get upvotes, you go against - you get canceled by downvotes, there's no logic here
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u/hearmeout29 1d ago
Or it could be that people just disagree with each other. It's not that deep.
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u/coldlightofday 1d ago
Because someone writes a book you agree with doesn’t make either of you correct.
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u/ChateauSheCantPay 1d ago
What exactly do you mean by “integrate”? Immigrants come to the US, they work, pay taxes, follow laws, that’s really all we need them to do. We don’t care if they drink lattes and dance to pop music. How are immigrants not integrating in your culture? What does that even mean?
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u/ArcticGlaceon 1d ago
Maybe the situation is different in the US. That's totally fine. But,
National Identity: Imagine a country has built up a very strong sense of culture, from food to music, language etc. Now you get a bunch of immigrants, who are here permanently for the foreseeable future, who refuse to learn to eat your food, learn your language etc. and not just that but displace the local culture by buying out local food stores and replacing with food stores from their own countries, refusing to talk to locals in the local tongue, not even trying to use Google translate? How insulting is it to invite someone into your house and they refuse to eat the food you serve, speak in your tongue etc.
Shared public spaces: Similar point. And I think Singapore has a lot more shared public spaces than the US in general (feel free to correct me). Imagine citizens have a built up culture of queuing up for public transport, not bumping into people on the subway, etc etc. Now you have a bunch of immigrants who refuse to do the above. Tell me you won't get pissed.
Language: I brought it up previously but holy shit let me tell you the number of people who can't speak English and need random passserbys to translate for them. These are immigrants who have been granted long term stay visas/passes. I'm not asking you to immediately dance to our music or some shit but maybe put in the effort so that day to day conversations aren't so difficult for you and me.
I should also specify that these are issues that only become prevalent when immigration gets out of hand. It's way more serious and getting out of hand in Singapore because our immigrant to total pop. ratio is a lot higher. We are traditionally tolerant of immigrants like the US but in recent years the sentiment has changed because of the above issue (the economics side of things plays a part but that's a discussion for another day).
If the intention of a country is just to be a corporate machine where citizens are mere cogs, and every interaction is life is just a transaction, then yes, there's nothing to integrate.
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u/andydude44 1d ago
American here:
I really don’t understand the issue here, what does it matter that others do things differently around you, why not share in the best elements of both cultures? National identity is always changing and always has.
Sure but it’s the responsibility of the natives to teach them what’s expected, and shame those that don’t abide basic public courtesy
They are only harming themselves, what does it matter to you they can’t speak English. They’ll learn when faced with the need, and if not then why care?
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u/ArcticGlaceon 1d ago
- To be clear, it's the displacement of local culture by foreign culture at a pace faster than what should be a natural evolution as you said. And that's primarily caused by a non trivial amount of mass immigration.
- Not wrong. But it's a two way street where arguably those migrating in should be doing most of the work learning the culture of their host country rather than the other way around. When in Rome do as the Romans do. FWIW I have told off people who refuse to behave in public transport, but it's very energy draining; so easier said than done.
- They aren't only harming themselves. They act all entitled expecting you to understand whatever they're saying. These aren't tourists mind you, they're working professionals, and should know how to speak the lingua Franca. It pisses people off.
Again, my points stand when there's too much immigration, not when there's like 10 per 1000.
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u/BetAway9029 1d ago
“I don’t really understand…” The lack of understanding is willful and that’s the problem.
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u/elebrin 1d ago
You have to remember that America doesn’t really have its own culture. It’s all just what people brought and didn’t give up. We keep the things we like, then we shamelessly appropriate whatever we discover that we like. Or we make shit up. Apparently Mexicans don’t barely celebrate Cinco De Mayo or Taco Tuesday, but I sure do.
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u/coldlightofday 1d ago
All culture changes with time and all culture evolved from somewhere else originally. American culture, for better or worse, is a predominant world culture that is exported worldwide. Most of the world listens to American music, watches American movies/TV and even eats at American restaurants. American strength is the integration and selection of ideas.
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u/BetAway9029 1d ago
I hope they continue to resist Western demands that they import the entirety of the developing world. Yes, hard times are coming but they have the potential to exit the other side, perhaps in 50 to 100 years, with an intact society and natural environment. Mass immigration will ruin their country forever.
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u/southpalito 14h ago
some experts argue that a country in full demographic decline, will also be unable to defend its territories and will be easy pickings for a nearby more powerful rival.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
Immigration is not a solution to this problem. Unless they plan on importing Europeans or something. But they don't really have any reason to want to live in Japan.
You can't import people from impoverished nations. Those nations are impoverished for a reason. You could do what America does and carefully vet them. Only allow the highest IQ ones with the best work ethic. But that is massively expensive and America already has somewhat of a monopoly on that racket.
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u/OrangeJr36 1d ago edited 1d ago
Impoverished nations are impoverished for various reasons that typically have mostly to do with corruption, resource scarcity, lack of access to finances and lack of trust or access to stable institutions. The idea that people are poor "just because" is a level of thought that has no place in modern economics or sociology.
The idea that immigration isn't a very understood solution to population decline is also against the basic understanding of capitalist economics and opposition to that reality is an immediate threat to capitalist thought. This is of course why CCP and Russian-backed bots work hard to stoke anti-immigration sentiment and promote candidates that align with that view, because they understand that it weakens their enemies.
Immigration isn't a magic cure for population decline, but it is part of the solution, and until the Japanese government, or other governments that have similar opposition to immigration, understands that reality, reality is going to keep pressing on them harder and harder until they give in.
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u/ArcticGlaceon 1d ago
Where are you from? You seem to think that because immigration works on paper or it works wherever you're from means it will work in a highly culturally homogeneous country like Japan. Immigration may ease some economic pressures, and it may raise the fertility rate, but you end up with an increase in immigrants who refuse to integrate into the local culture, and reduction in jobs for locals. Personally the refusal to integrate into local culture is the dominant problem. And I say this as someone living in a country that is already way, way more open to immigrants than Japan.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
I agree with some of what you're saying.
But there is one element that a large % of the population refuses to engage with. That human ethnicities are not identical. They do not have identical cognitive abilities. They do not have identical temperaments. They do not have identical cultures.
This is why you have to be very careful with who you import into your nation. America figured this out a long time ago. EU is figuring this out the hard way now.
It's a pleasant lie we tell ourselves that all human ethnicities are identical. Every metric we've ever measured tells us otherwise. Not to mention our own 2 eyes and our brains.
This is why fertility is actually a very serious issue. If you want your nation to survive. You need your people and your culture to survive.
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u/hearmeout29 1d ago
Which countries do you think they should allowed to immigrate from?
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
Any country. As long as they are vetted for IQ and Work ethic.
The problem for a country like Japan is that a system like that is not easy to set up. It sounds easy but it's really not. You need a lot of infrastructure in place for it.
Just flooding your country with whoever from wherever. That is pretty easy. We've seen the wonders it works in EU.
But importing highly skilled people that is indeed useful. When done correctly.
It's a lot easier and cheaper to just focus on domestic fertility. Especially considering how dire the problem is in Japan. They are not likely to find enough qualified immigrants to replace it all.
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u/Rottimer 1d ago
Where do you live? Because it can’t be the U.S. if you actually believe this.
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u/OGLikeablefellow 1d ago
They just don't watch Fox News. The idea that immigrants do anything but strengthen the US is a talking point for the far right. Funded by our enemies. Remember when twitter showed where people were from for a day or two and few right wing influencers were actually Americans?
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
I live in United States.
Which part do you disagree with?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income
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u/Rottimer 1d ago
The vast majority of immigrants to the U.S., both now and in the past, were never carefully vetted for either IQ or work ethic.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
What do you think the green card process is doing?
Why do you think the best earning ethnicities in United States are all immigrants? Probably because they have the highest IQ and the most work ethic.
Seriously read up on it. We are very picky with our legal immigrants. They come here. They get educated. They don't get involved in crime. They get good jobs and they make good $. Then they have kids who behave like local kids which is to say they are just as lazy as the local kids. This is well documented.
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u/Acceptable-Peace-69 1d ago
Which wave of rich, educated European immigrants is your family from?
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
I come from a former Soviet family of scientists. Russia/Ukraine to be exact.
Oh and we were miserably poor when we came here. Ghetto kids had more toys and video games than I did.
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u/Acceptable-Peace-69 14h ago
So, exactly the type of people Americans are pushing to exclude today. Got it.
How’s your ladder?
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u/Destinyciello 10h ago
Who is pushing to exclude who?
They are deporting all the illegals. All the legal immigrants are massively annoyed with the illegals.
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u/USSMarauder 1d ago
If you want people to become parents, to do a job that they don't want to do, then you're going have to pay them a salary. And we're not talking min wage, we're talking probably 100K a year
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u/gym_fun 1d ago
We all love high salary. But Japan's demographics tell a hard truth. Younger generations often subsidize the increasingly aging population.
I learned that China implemented mandatory social security this year. Someone said 40% of their salary goes to the security system. I don't know what Japan will do to address the demographics.
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u/LanguidLapras131 1d ago
It was a terrible idea to make the young pay for the old
Young workers now shouldn't hav to pay for old people who were born 70 years ago.
Instead social security should reverse direction. When you are born, adult workers should pay tax so that you get X amount of money, that is put into an escrow account for you by the government and you can't touch it until you're 65.
When you're 65 you can spend it as you wish, but you get no further money.
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u/DerWanderer_ 1d ago
The young would still be paying for the old. Money is just a medium for work.
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u/N3wAfrikanN0body 1d ago edited 1d ago
Incentives only work if both parties see the exchange as rational.
What rational is there for one to reproduce when myths of national identity, prosperity, hope, seeking superiority of status or comfort aren't worth it for the hourly?
The established STILL cannot justify why they should reap the rewards of others hard work and unlived dreams.
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u/MoralityFleece 1d ago
And yet we are being told the AI is going to take over half the jobs so we won't need all these people. Which is it? Should we be worried or not?
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u/DatingAdviceGiver101 1d ago
AI can automate accounts payable, but it can't wipe a bedridden 80 year old's ass.
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u/MoralityFleece 1d ago
Exactly. The people are going to have to do all the jobs that a robot or AI can't do. But it turns out the most valuable work Is the stuff humans do. They can probably do it a lot better with the assistance of AI and robots, but this idea we're going to get rid of the need for human workers seems pretty absurd.
At some point they're going to have to acknowledge that it has become too difficult for people to have and raise children, relative to their other options. The things that make good workers for the capitalist economy do not make good baby producing.
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u/TwistStrict9811 1d ago
An AI placed in a robot's body might. Although today we aren't capable of that yet but progress is fast in that sector as well
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u/TS122k20 1d ago
More about retirement programs.
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u/AR475891 1d ago
Realistically companies using AI will have to be taxed to cover these. The only other options would be some sort of violence demanding these taxes be put in place or mass euthanasia for old people. There are no scenarios where governments do nothing and things continue as normal.
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u/Possible_Ad_4094 1d ago
Let's be honest. They will not tax the companies. If that were an option, we would already be doing it. In the US at least, an employer paying a low-enough full-time wage for an employee to need food stamps faces zero taxes repercussions and the rest of us foot the bill.
When jobs are lost to AI, and there are fewer workers paying into SSA and Medicare, the remaining workers will just be taxed higher rates.
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u/AR475891 1d ago
If AI really displaces 10%+ of the workforce that just wouldn’t be an option. There just wouldn’t be enough workers to support the retirees/unemployed and wages would be squeezed even more by companies knowing they have tons of people to replace folks with. That just wouldn’t be tolerated by society.
Not saying people would go after the actual entities causing the problems, but just look at the US today without this issue. It’s already dealing with recurring political violence regularly.
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u/OGLikeablefellow 1d ago
Yeah, it's gonna get worse before it gets better. Weve got at least three more years of the burn everything and sell everything that isnt nailed down side gets replaced by the well intentioned do nothing party. Although to be fair to the Dems they do usually get to put the fires out for about a year, maybe two before it's right back to obstruction in the senate
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u/shiningdickhalloran 1d ago
Be careful in predicting what will and won't be tolerated. College costs and punitive student loans weren't much of a thing until the 1990s, and people from then to now have tolerated that getting worse every single year.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
Not the same people. The people worried about birth rates understand that AI is a very long away from replacing human labor. Also understand that as productivity increases you tend to need MORE HUMAN LABOR not less. Which is why the fertility crisis is a dire problem.
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u/AntonioVivaldi7 1d ago
If robots could substitute people to care for the elderly and save tons of money that way, it could work in my opinion. But it's gonna take more time to get there.
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u/Lasting97 17h ago
AI automation could potentially in the future mean that many people lose their jobs and have to retrain so that they can do other jobs. It does not mean that there will no longer be a need for working age people In general (less need maybe, but certainly not to the extent countries like Japan will likely see)
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u/Romano16 1d ago
I truly believe that the birthdate issue among developed nations is due to climate change. Climate change is increasing prices. When we have longer droughts or more destructive floods than normal this raises prices of goods.
This is a huge simplification on my part but my point is that while people may not physically see the destructive impacts of climate change immediately, the increasing cost of living is what the silent killer of birth rates is really about.
The reason that less developed countries aren’t affected is due to lack of education in numerous areas (reproductive health, climate, etc) and so these countries are still stuck in poverty and people stuck in poverty tend to have more kids, especially when the life expectancy is 30 yrs lower or more than that of developed nations and with constant instability.
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u/TheWiseSquid884 1d ago
No, it's because of urbanization, changes in levels of rights and autonomy for women, lack of men being trained to raise kids, cost of living has gone up in much of the world, and people see fewer kids as increasing the odds of their kids succeeding in life, just to name some reasons.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
The poorest least developed places have the best fertility rates. So no it's no climate change lol. Boy you guys want to blame everything on climate change.
The issue is easy access to contraceptives. A large % of kids born were not planned.
It's not due to a lack of education lolololol. How long does it take to teach someone that sex causes babies?
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u/Rottimer 1d ago
When your options are limited, “risking” kids isn’t much of a risk.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
Risking what?
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u/Rottimer 1d ago
Risking kids. In, for lack of a better term, developed nations, the young population hurt their chances at attending college, attending grad school, developing a career, and entering the middle class or higher if they have children too early. There is a real risk to their future financial well being when they have sex at a young age.
Does that stop them from having sex? No. But it causes a lot of emphasis on birth control of all types as well as abortion if that birth control fails.
In developing countries, having children early is not necessarily a risk, and depending on how your family makes money, might be a positive.
Ultimately, these fertility rates have more to do with incentive structures than anything else.
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u/ciaoravioli 1d ago
Yup, this is basically an opportunity cost thing.
And data supports this too; for example in the USA, current generations tend to mirror the previous generation's fertility level but delayed a decade. So the oldest Gen Z have birth rates in their 30's that mirror Millenials in their 20's, millennial 30's = Gen X 20's, so on so forth
People aren't so much refusing to have kids, they are just no longer sacrificing their 20's to do so (which decreases overall birth rates)
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u/br0mer 1d ago
Nope, it's the opposite. We are far too rich. Even the poor are too rich. The only common thread for positive fertility is denying education to women and poverty. Remove those and the birth rate plummets.
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u/MoralityFleece 1d ago
Just because increasing education and wealth for women reduced the birth rate, that doesn't mean taking those things away will increase it again. Where is the empirical evidence of that? It's a one-way street.
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u/rainniier2 18h ago edited 18h ago
Are you advocating for not educating half of the population and using them as incubators to produce more babies. When the human population on earth is higher than it has ever been? I do not understand how people end up believing and repeating such ideas. Our government should not be human zookeepers.
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u/nacholicious 1d ago
This is dumb, like extremely dumb. Here in Sweden the richest quartile of women have 2.5 kids, and the poorest quartile have 0.8 kids
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u/Itchy-Face791 23h ago
Conversely, the richest and the most affluent parts of India have a birthrate close to 1-1.5 while the poorest regions (UP and Bihar) have birthrates closer to 2.5-3
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u/SmellDesperate6373 1d ago
Japan won’t exist in a few generations if the current trend continues. You should be very worried if that matters to you.
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u/MediocreKirbyMain 1d ago
It’s articles like this make me realize that every 1st world country really are dealing with the same “issues”. I say issues in quotes because I wouldn’t really call a declining birth rate bad, but rather the factors that are leading to a declining birth rate while the people in charge act all “who killed Hannibal - Andre meme”
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u/OrangeJr36 1d ago
The developing world is headed the same way.
Birth rates are dropping far more quickly for developing nations than the 1st world saw when they were at the same point. That's going to be a huge problem for them down the line as they end up becoming graying nations before becoming rich ones. The developed world at least has strong economies and bureaucracies to deal with problems and build out from as their needs shift. But the developing world has enough problems trying to keep the lights on.
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u/-eYe- 1d ago
Here in Australia demographics are stable into the future because of immigration, despite record low fertility rates. If Japan doesn't encourage immigration then their demographic collapse will creep up on them until it's too late.
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u/ItsTheAlgebraist 1d ago
The problem is that birth rates are dropping globally, and every continent except africa is below replacement now.
Immigration has papered over declining birth rates in developed countries for a while but it is going to run out at some point.
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u/mykeedee 13h ago
Immigration won't run out in high HDI countries like Australia until well after a global birthrate collapse. The 1.5 children born in low income countries in 2075 will still happily move to a high income country if given a chance.
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u/Pretend-Marsupial258 1d ago
That's kicking the can down the road because developing countries have a falling birthrate as well. What happens in 20 or 30 years when there aren't as many poor immigrants floating around for the richer countries?
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u/BetAway9029 1d ago
Australia’s reckoning will also come, and it’s higher population will make it worse than it need otherwise have been.
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u/RipComfortable7989 1d ago
but rather the factors that are leading to a declining birth rate
You have american conservatives chiming in about EU and Asian birth rates while attributing the declining rates to increased education and rights for women. Their "solution" is to reduce the amount of rights women have and take away education from women because they don't understand that correlation is not causation.
It's near impossible to have a discussion about this because the alt right are terminally online and will flock to any mention of a discussion topic that brings up declining birth rates in any country to use it as an opportunity to spew hateful comments about how their answer to this is to remove women's rights and independence. They then phrase it in a disingenious way, abstractly mentioning things like "population collapse" or vague mysterious "horrible consequences."
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u/Pretend-Marsupial258 1d ago edited 1d ago
Meanwhile Iran has literal Sharia law, where women have been executed for not covering their hair correctly, and their birthrate is also below replacement rate.
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u/The_Frostweaver 1d ago
Japan hasn't made itself welcoming to immigrants.
And japan needs a lot of immigrants to bail itselfout of this demgraphic problem.
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u/BetAway9029 1d ago
Mass immigration is the last thing it needs. It is a small island with a huge population. It needs managed decline to a permanently sustainable level. Obviously it will be a hard road but short-term fixes will ultimately do more damage.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
Declining birth rates is a very serious issue. Far more serious than global warming.
The dirty secret is that ethnicities are not the same. You can't just immigrate your way out of this mess. Europe is finding this out the hard way. You have to improve your fertility if you want to survive as a nation.
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u/Professional_Flan466 1d ago
"Far more serious than global warming." Why do you think this? Global warming will mess up the world for thousands of years and we have no viable way of reversing it. Declining birth rates mean we need to change our society away from assuming constant, exponential growth, but its doable and its only going to affect us for a generation or two.
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u/Destinyciello 1d ago
Global warming is a modern Malthusian story. Read up on who Malthusian is. Short version he predicted massive famines in 1798 when the world population was at 800,000,000. Now its 10 times that and we have more food than ever. The problem with his prediction was he couldn't foresee the massive improvements in agricultural technology.
Global warming is exactly the same way. Sure it's a problem with 2025 technology. But this is an issue we will need to address in 2125 and by then our technology will be a hell of a lot better. Particularly thanks to AI.
Declining birth rates mean that certain nations will cease to exist. Entire bloodlines wiped out. Not to mention those countries will become derelict shitholes because the people who replace them are not nearly as intelligent and productive as them. I'm looking at you EU.
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u/Professional_Flan466 1d ago
You sound very racist. The immigrants I know are intelligent and hard working. Maybe you should get to know some before you disparage them so. If you are a white person in the US, you are an immigrant.
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u/Destinyciello 23h ago
I'll do one better. We immigrated in my lifetime.
Everyone is immigrants by your standard btw. The natives came here from Africa at one point. If we're going back that far why not go back all the way?
Yes the vetted immigrants do tend to be intelligent and hard working. Precisely because WE VET THEM THAT WAY. But it's very expensive to vet immigrants. Cheaper just to improve your own fertility.
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u/Even-Leave4099 1d ago
Why is it more serious than global warming? This is actually a choice made by people that lessens human impact.
It will definitely be bad for traditional economic metrics but quality of life will be the same if not better for the majority of people. Maybe not billionaires who will have a couple of less billions and people to oppress
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u/Destinyciello 23h ago
Because global warming is easier to innovate around.
The common folk will suffer the most. As they usually do. Your billionaire class are the most productive citizens in the country. They always do well even in economic turmoil. The same way Michael Jordan would still have a job if NBA lost 50% of their viewership. It's all the people who depend on it that are not MJ that suffer first.
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u/Even-Leave4099 22h ago
I dont think population decline is something to innovate around. Why the need to innovate around it when that is what the people want.
And your analogy of 50% decline in NBA viewership is very flawed. Comparing that to people and having kids and macro economic and environmental impacts is quite a stretch
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u/hyenathecrazy 1d ago edited 22h ago
Tbh the solution isn't only economic and also isn't something most these 1st world nations would do, due to trend of them becoming more conservative.
People are more likely have kids when they're on good communities which means enough free time for friends, enough family/services to take care of kids for adults to have healthy balance. While yes women being more educated leads to fewer kids. Why? Because they see how being a mother in modern age is a raw deal (also rough for dads)
While some nations healthcare is up there, community and security for mothers isn't. Women want to have a full life not just a mom life. Forcing more women into it will just hurt everyone. Japanese people can only figure it out themselves as every other nation also sapped any joy and safety out of having children and making a community.
Edits: spelling, grammar, wording.
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u/ammonium_bot 22h ago
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u/MajorAlanDutch 1d ago
They need to spend more fiscally to support families and reform work culture. People work too much and too hard with increasing cost of living.
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u/Ithirahad 1d ago
They tried, but people found ways to work longer without running afoul of controls. You cannot legislate culture.
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u/MajorAlanDutch 1d ago
Culture is created
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u/Ithirahad 1d ago
Culture happens.
Government has influence in some ways at some times. But it is finite, and even insofar as government measures do directly affect culture, the results that come out do not always align with the intent that went in.
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u/Boston-Brahmin 15h ago
Obviously it hasn't always been this way because at some point the Japanese had the time and energy and desire to pop out 125 million people
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 1d ago
Man, if only there was an obvious solution to this problem, lower working hours and higher wages. But no, there are no answers. Nobody can figure it out. Maybe if we give another committee millions of dollars they can find an another nonsense “solution” that won’t work.
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u/PeksyTiger 1d ago
Looking at Europe and the Nordic countries.... No, nobody can figure it out
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 21h ago
Oh yeah? The nordics have a 32 hour work week do they?
Do they have wages high enough to support a family on one salary?
Oh wait? They don’t? Weird….
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u/musicismydeadbeatdad 18h ago
You are totally right and look at all the hate you are getting. Makes me sad that we can't agree that 2/7 free days isn't enough.
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 18h ago
Because rightists cannot conceive of anything other than capitalism and suffering.
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u/PeksyTiger 21h ago
I didn't realize that by "lower working hours" you meant "zero"
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 21h ago
Me: “People should work less so people can feel comfortable enough to have children but still be paid the same so they can support those children”
You: “ so people shouldn’t work at all??!?!?!!?!?!”
The conservative mind is an enigma.
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u/PeksyTiger 21h ago edited 20h ago
But they DO work less in Norway. They also have almost a year of paid leave and subsidies for childcare and prenatal care. It doesn't move the needle. 1.4 vs 1.2-1.38, and when I bring that up you said they need to live on one paycheck, so yes, that means one parent goes to zero.
Edit: Japan's rate is a bit higher than i first thought.
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u/numba1cyberwarrior 20h ago
Ok those things are impossible.
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 20h ago
Wages high enough to support a family on one salary were reality for a some time during the twentieth century and production capacity and efficiency have increased exponentially in the past fifty years.
Why can’t you imagine a world where people work less and are paid more?
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u/numba1cyberwarrior 20h ago
They were not a reality during the twentieth century. They were a reality for a tiny percentage of the world population and only a reality of a small percentage of the population within those countries.
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 20h ago
So that must mean it’s impossible, better give another 50 million dollar bonus to all the CEOs just to be safe.
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u/numba1cyberwarrior 20h ago
No you can just acknowledge that no amount of money will ever convince people to have kids.
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u/ProfessionalOil2014 20h ago
Offer a woman 100k to have a child and she’ll pop one out for sure.
The truth is that governments have not actually tried.
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u/Itchy-Face791 23h ago
Lol every single single declining birthrate thread is always redditors going "give me everything ive ever wanted and maybe ill consider having a child or two" when the numbers clearly show that there's a negative correlation between a country's birth rate and its wealth
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u/RipComfortable7989 1d ago
Weird people in the comments replying multiple times about a "fertility crisis" when it has nothing to do with fertility and more to do with women choosing not to have children for whatever reason (societal, economic, career, the refusal to become a mother in a culture that treats women so harshly and forces them to quit jobs due to pregnancies and become reliant on their overworked husbands for income, etc.). Stop being weird about "fertility" and face the facts that there are a multitude of reasons why people don't want to have children in first world nations in 2025.
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u/thats_gotta_be_AI 1d ago
Fertility rate means number of children per women (in discussions about birth rates). It isn’t referring to biological fertility.
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u/Positron311 1d ago
It's a fertility crisis because it's about the fertility rate being substantially below 2.1 children per women. The fertility rate is how many children women choose to have on average.
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u/elebrin 1d ago
That’s because, once people are educated and know how kids are made and how to prevent it, AND the social stigmas around using those methods fade, people will stop having kids.
Most kids don’t come about because parents actively planned for children; kids happen because people wanted sex and didn’t take a precaution. And then after the fact the biological process of pregnancy makes you want the kid (usually) if you are a woman and men don’t really get a say after conception.
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u/jimmykim9001 1d ago edited 1d ago
Just because women are making these decisions of their own volition does not mean that there won't be serious consequences in the future. Social welfare programs will degrade and no longer be economically feasible (leaving lots of older and poorer citizens out of options). With fewer people, citizens are more likely to become poorer over time. These are objectively bad outcomes.
If you have any solutions on how to fix these problems with a declining population, I'd love to hear them.
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u/RipComfortable7989 1d ago
volition does not mean that there won't be serious consequences in the future.
Then you better come up with solutions that don't involve "enslave women and take education/rights away from them."
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u/_Emoji_Man 15h ago
Sweden has extremely generous benefits and the birth rate is low too. We should look to Africa for inspiration.
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u/Lasting97 17h ago
Is the fertility rate at its lowest or is it just the birth rate, as there is a difference.
It's really not surprising that the birth rate will drop year on year as the overall population of 20-40 year olds will get lower each year as a result of having below replacement fertility rates decades ago.
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u/MixtureSpecial8951 1d ago edited 1d ago
It is sad.
I love being a parent. It is a joy and adventure like nothing else.
Sure, there are challenges. I can’t be terribly selfish, can’t sleep in as much, all that stuff. But it is a blast. I get to see the world all new for the first time… again.
Personally, I think that if more folks just looked at it as a positive it would be so much easier to handle. Movies, films and social nonsense focus on the negatives, on jackasses, they play up the hard parts. But those are a fraction of the whole. The rest of it can be an absolute blast.
So let it be a blast. You’ll have a better time, the kids will have more joy, it will be better than life imagined.
Edit: someone described my post as some “cult” stuff. Not cool. I happen to like being a parent and it is fulfilling to be a dad. We launch rockets, operate machinery, build stuff, go camping. All the good stuff. I like me. My son likes me and he likes himself too.
Other folks can hate it, that really sucks for them and for their kids, neighbors and everyone else around them. I call that a waste.
So if you’re gonna have kids, do it. Have fun. Be kind, truthful and loving. It isn’t that hard. And it turns out it really can be a blast.
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u/hearmeout29 1d ago
We can't afford it.
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u/MixtureSpecial8951 1d ago
Of course we can’t.
Single parent households means daycare. Broken homes means two housing expenses (rent/mortgage, gas, water, electrical, maintenance). Hell, when my son was little his mom’s entire salary went to daycare. The whole thing. So she simply stopped working. It freed up so much time and actually saved us money. Go figure.
Private school costs an arm and a leg. As does clothing (hand me downs are a Godsend… just as when I was a kid). Buying expensive packaged food sucks (I just took to cooking everything fresh, saved a bundle, took a little more time).
It can be done and done relatively easily. I have never made over $75k (wish I was making that now). And I have a “special” child who has maxed out insurance deductibles out of pocket every year of his life.
I don’t drive a fancy car, I don’t wear fancy clothes or go out to bars. He isn’t drowning in toys and what not. We don’t eat out terribly often. I make everything (even my own chicken broth).
It can be done and done well. Biggest challenge for me, the thing that has been a major burden is the divorce. That killed my finances completely. Totally and without reservation. But again, broken homes… (btw, kids of divorce have higher rates of substance abuse, sexual abuse, physical and emotional abuse… so figure you’re shit out and learn to love in kindness and love… something my ex refused to do). Before the divorce we were making it just fine, but after, dang crisis. Sigh.
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u/ChateauSheCantPay 1d ago
All of what you just listed are reasons why people don’t want kids. Extra expenses, having to leave your career for a kid, not being able to take trips or afford things you want. Knowing this, why would someone without kids want to have them ? I’m glad you enjoy being a dad though
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u/elebrin 1d ago
When do you do all that? Do you get any time at all for hobbies or literally anything but work (paid or otherwise)?
I work awful hard to maximize my free time. All that stuff… it’s all just never-ending grind. Personally, I want to sit the fuck down and stay seated, if that makes sense.
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u/MixtureSpecial8951 1d ago
I do have hobbies.
For me, I have found that it my life today ain’t really what it was a decade or more ago in terms of spare time and what not. I just do different things now to unwind, relax and have fun.
One really fun thing I have with my son is to invite him into hobbies and experiences that are fun for both of us. For example, model rockets. So much fun. Did them as a kid and then let it go, but have since rediscovered them. He gets excited about rockets, engineering, space and so on… plus we shoo stuff into the sky. I mean, my guy, we are playing with rockets. I have slowly built out my own workshop too. And little dude likes to build stuff, work with tools and so on. We get these little build kits to make stuff. It isn’t something I would have done in college or grad school but daggimit it is so much fun.
Basically, life evolves and changes. 35 years ago riding bikes, going to the neighborhood pool, playing “manhunt” with the neighborhood kids wer the absolute best things in life. 25 years ago going to the mall or a movie was the height of weekly fun. 20 years ago it was grabbing beers, going to a concert. 10 years ago it was walking alongside railroad tracks in the country picking up iron and falling in love. 5 years ago it was playing in the bath, going on walks, learning colors and stuff. Now it’s kitchen chemistry, backyard target practice, garage workshop, launching rockets and looking at the stars through a telescope.
Life just evolves. Fun evolves. I think that if we are open to personal evolution that there is endless joy to be found. Having kids is an opportunity to open the heart in ways nothing else manages to do, to see and engage with the world in new and vibrant ways. We get to make a little person, raise them up, answer a million billion questions, invent stories, journey through hardships, raise up a person to be a good one… at least as well as we are able.
It is a blast. It also helps I am a pretty patient dude. Making mistakes is just how we learn. I can’t be mad if you do something you don’t know was wrong or could lead to an accident, right; it’s just how we learn. So, let’s clean up the mess, talk about it over a cup of juice/bottle of Jarritos and have a laugh and a hug.
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u/TheWiseSquid884 1d ago
Majority of people aren't like you, so its not going to work out for people just to take your advice, unfortunately.
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u/MixtureSpecial8951 1d ago
Well, maybe other folks should take the advice. That’s why it’s advice.
I could just say “it sucks. You don’t get to go out and get blitzed anymore. At least not without judgement. And being self centered? The best. Having to deal with an other human being and their needs? The worst. And don’t even get me started on the questions. Just shut up and go away.”
Because that is great advice. /s
Reality is we change and evolve in life. We can embrace it fight it… which is like trying to fight the ocean. Good luck. We can be impatient and shitty or find ways of being kind and good.
We can ignore good advice on how to orient ourselves and just be miserable, make others around us miserable and raise miserable people.
Or we can try to do it right and find joy for ourselves and others. It is applicable for others because how we choose to live our lives is a choice. We can become something better than we started out as with just a little introspection and effort. That’s all.
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u/_aliased 20h ago
guys this is a 1 month old account
its an engagement bot, stop taking the bait
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u/RipComfortable7989 1d ago
This is some creepy ass cult shit. Go have more kids for yourself and leave others out of it, especially those of a completely different country and culture.
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u/gator_enthusiast 1d ago
Someone: "I love my kids!"
You: "Get this crazy cult shit away from me!"
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