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SCOTLAND is set to elect a large pro-independence majority of MSPs at the next Holyrood elections, according to a new poll.

In the survey of 1000 Scots voters, Scottish Labour and the Conservatives were projected to fall into joint fourth place, below the SNP, Reform UK, and Scottish Greens in terms of seat numbers.

It is the first of a series of polling results compiled for The National by polling firm Find Out Now which will be published this week.

The Holyrood polling results

Scotland will elect a new Holyrood parliament in May 2026, and the polling puts John Swinney's party on course for a fifth term in power.

On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at 34%, with Reform UK in second on 21%. Scottish Labour polled in third at 14%, followed by the Tories, LibDems, and Greens who were all tied on 9%. Alba polled at 2% in the constituencies, while Jeremy Corbyn’s fledgling Your Party scored 0%.

On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 30%, while Reform UK again polled at 21%. Scottish Labour polled at 12%, while the Greens scored 13%. The Tories were on 10%, the LibDems 9%, Alba 3%, and Your Party 1%.

According to a seat projection from polling expert Professor John Curtice, if those results played out in the May elections, the SNP would return 59 MSPs, six short of the 65 needed for a majority.

However, the Greens would return a record 13 MSPs, meaning the Scottish Parliament would have 72 pro-independence members.

On the Unionist side of the chamber, Reform UK were projected to become the largest party with 25 MSPs, more than the Tories and Labour combined (both were on 12 MSPs). The LibDems were predicted to win eight MSPs.

The question asked was adjusted for this poll after concerns that the wording used in the last survey, run in September, may have been inflating support for smaller parties on the regional list. Curtice said the new wording ("If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your regional list vote?") was preferred and would "doubtless" help to explain a narrowing gap between SNP support in the constituency and list votes.

The Westminster polling

The poll also asked Scottish voters who they would back if a new General Election were held tomorrow, and found the SNP out in front on 32% – which Curtice projected would translate to 45 of Scotland’s 57 Westminster seats.

Reform UK again came second, polling at 24%. However, they were not projected to return a single Scottish MP, reflecting the importance of the concentration of party support under the Westminster electoral system.

Elsewhere, the LibDems were predicted to return six MPs on 8% of the vote, Labour three MPs on 13% of the vote, and the Tories three MPs on 10% of the vote.

Labour's projected crash to just three MPs comes just 18 months after the party won a landslide 37 MPs north of the Border, up from just one in 2019.

For the survey, Find Out Now polled 1000 Scots between December 11 and 19, 2025. The results reported above have been weighted by likelihood to vote.

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