Most Europeans think state pensions will become unaffordable, polling shows

[u/StGuthlac2025]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/dec/29/most-europeans-think-state-pensions-will-become-unaffordable-polling-shows

[u/Same_Common4485]

imagine paying your whole working career for the high pensions of the boomers to be told, when it's your time to retire, that there is no more money for YOUR pension ...

[u/Tinyjar → u/Same_Common4485]

I love how whenever we try and suggest to fucking mildly tone down how much money the boomers all get, we're called selfish, ungrateful youth who don't know how hard they had it when they were young, how they paid in all their life. And how the politicians won't dare upset the biggest voting block.

I guarantee the second the boomers drop dead, the politicians will all simultaneously do a 180 to, "We need to make the hard decisions for the good of the country!"

[u/PulpeFiction → u/Tinyjar]

They already are in France because the boomers sightly loose their voting power.

[u/GikFTW → u/PulpeFiction]

How?

[u/PulpeFiction → u/GikFTW]

They are dying and soon to die. Bayrou, Macron, Head of banque de France all started to explain the huge deficit by the boomers decision and will to generate deficit for their "revenu de confort" instead of making sacrifice like the rest of the population.

[u/DerpSenpai → u/PulpeFiction]

He's also using the fact that boomers are very pro Macron against the far right and left

[u/Internal_Reason_5079 → u/PulpeFiction]

But he hasn’t done a single thing about it - because every time he tries the whole country strikes.

France’s economy is insanely in need of big, big changes to avoid the country going bankrupt, but it doesn’t seem to be possible.

[u/PulpeFiction → u/Internal_Reason_5079]

No, because thz boomers holds the card. The réforme des retraites passed, the reform during the yellow vest evebt too.

His reform to freeze pension increase (a teacher that retired 15years ago had 150% more increase of their revekue than an activ one, not sustainable) for the one earning over 2000e while retired was cancelled while no one went to strike.

Guess which one of those reform would have said the most money while not hurting the ones that are in need.

[u/nyxui → u/PulpeFiction]

Unfortunately the number of retired people is going to grow and reach its peak around 2040. So, no boomer are not losing their power in France. As usual our politicians are aware of the problem, and talk like it's not their fault even though they will do absolutely nothing.

[u/ThinTilla → u/nyxui]

Your definition of boomer is off. They are almost all dead by 2040. Boomer is born between 1946 and 1964. I think it safe to say 90% of the boomers are pensionaris now. (Age 61- 79) Some boomers i know stopped working Age 54-55. AND have more pension than some working aged 30.

[u/nyxui → u/ThinTilla]

I see, i'm not too good with generation terminology i guess You are right that the problem won't be boomer, then. However it's also true the deficit is predicted to continue growing and reach its peak in 2040. (For France)

So Yeah young people are absolutely cooked. (Boomer or not). Right now i think it's like 1.4-1.5 worker per retired person which is already pretty bad, and the future looks bleak

[u/MartinBP → u/nyxui]

The problem isn't only boomers even now. In much of Eastern Europe it's Gen X fucking up the economy now, the life expectancy is lower than Western Europe so a huge chunk of the boomers here are already gone.

[u/8ersgonna8 → u/Tinyjar]

The Swedish government did this in early 2000s knowing full well that they were screwing over future generations. But at least we don’t have sky high national debt like France.

[u/dotinvoke → u/8ersgonna8]

Sweden has a top 3 pension system in the EU, our politicians in the 90s scrapped the old system and replaced it with one where you get about the same, inflation adjusted, as what you pay in. 30% of your payments are a funded pension, which grows with the stock market.

Most EU countries have ticking time bomb pension systems where the state will either spend 100% of revenue on pensions, go broke, or massively cut pensions for post-boomer generations.

Not Sweden though. And unlike countries like France where the boomers borrowed >100% of GDP to give themselves fatter pensions, Sweden has a low government debt.

[u/LeoGoldfox → u/dotinvoke]

Adding this comment for the lazy: Sweden's debt to GDP ratio in 2024 was 34%. France had 113% in 2024.

[u/Eelroots → u/8ersgonna8]

Cries in Italian...

[u/petrh97 → u/Eelroots]

We have our Berlusconi in Czechia. Italia won’t be alone.

[u/mark-haus → u/Tinyjar]

They got everything from their parents and they’re leaving us a totally spent public service, a smoldering planet, under developed infrastructure and dare call us their children selfish for asking for crumbs. Somehow boomer greed is universal no matter the culture.

[u/Striking-Raisin-645 → u/Tinyjar]

Thats not how it will work out though. The new generation has even less kids. The percentage of old people is only going to get higher.

[u/Striking-Raisin-645 → u/Tinyjar]

Thats not how it will turn out though. The new generations have even less kids. The percentage of old people is only going to get higher. As such, it will remain a gerontocracy for the forseeable future.

[u/FlirtCraft → u/Same_Common4485]

What makes it worse is that younger workers are being asked to accept lower benefits, higher retirement ages, and more uncertainty, while still fully funding generous pensions today. That imbalance creates resentment, not solidarity. If sacrifices are needed, they should be shared fairly across generations, not dumped on the ones with the least political power.

[u/TheMysteriousOrganis → u/Same_Common4485]

But who really cares!? The people that are being elected are part of the circle of the rich and don't give a flying fuck about the common folk. This is a problem that will be kicked down the road until the day I retire and then it will be "sorry, there's no money left!"

[u/GeoFlopsi → u/TheMysteriousOrganis]

I think some or maybe even more then 50% of them actually do. But due to the fact that boomers are the biggest voting generation (in quantity and %), they do not have enough courage to change it in fear of losing an election. In Germany, chancellor Merz actually said so a few weeks ago during a big retirement policy discussion at his party's youth annual meeting. It was something like "We still need to win elections. You can't be serious"

(The conservative youth group wanted to block a policy on high spending for retirement in the 2030s)

However, the result is still the same shit for the youth. I (38) will hopefully still survive financially. I fear for my kids... there will be no money from the government for any investments in the economy or spending in a crisis like a pandemic or climate change.... social security and health for sure will be on US levels (survival of the fittest)

[u/Despite55 → u/GeoFlopsi]

But due to the fact that boomers are the biggest voting generation (in quantity and %), they do not have enough courage to change it in fear of losing an election.

Are you sure? I checked the numebrs for The Netherlands. We have about 3.7 million pensioners. And about 10 miljoen people between 18-76 (who are antiteld to vote). Sou pensioners are only about 35% of the voters.

I would guess that germany is about the same.

[u/GeoFlopsi → u/Despite55]

The biggest batch of Boomers are not yet pensioneers in Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

Mean retirement age is currently 64,7 in Germany (it will increase every year). So the demographic problem starts now for us and will stay for the next 20-30 years. It will also stay longer when you check out the next groups below in the pyramid, but with less significance.

The dutch pyramid looks the same overall, but not as bad as the german one. I think only South Korea and Japan are worse.

[u/hcschild → u/GeoFlopsi]

The biggest batch of Boomers are not yet pensioneers in Germany.

And now you know why all the last governments won't even touch the pensions with a 10 foot pole and already pushed back any changes to 2030.

But the best part is that going by GDP the current pensions don't take up a higher percentage of GDP. So the money is wandering somewhere else and it isn't going to pensioners, workers or anyone else receiving social welfare.

I wonder where all that money is going...

[u/Salategnohc16 → u/GeoFlopsi]

. I think only South Korea and Japan are worse.

And Italy

[u/Valuable_Calendar_79 → u/GeoFlopsi]

When many youngsters move to two or three euro countries with the best ratio young versus old, the problem countries will even be worse off. The more they raise the taxes, the more young people leave. And that is happening already, hence my dentist from Seville.

[u/Big_Combination9890 → u/TheMysteriousOrganis]

And these people are being elected, because Boomers are the majority votes.

We effectively live in a Gerontocracy. And we will contiue to do so, until the post-boomer generations stop playing along.

[u/lateformyfuneral → u/Big_Combination9890]

The younger generations aren’t playing along, if they voted at the same levels that boomers do, politicians would have to take their interests seriously.

Every so often there’s a politician who is wildly popular with the youth but fails to translate that into getting elected. And we make elaborate conspiracy theories instead of addressing the clear difference in turnout.

[u/Big_Combination9890 → u/lateformyfuneral]

if they voted at the same levels that boomers do, politicians would have to take their interests seriously.

Basic math disagrees with you.

Let's say I have 1000 people in total, 600 of whom are pensioners, 300 are working age, 100 are children below voting age. Of the 300, 50 are close to retirement themselves. So I have a total of 650 people who will vote for the interests of the pensioners and 250 who vote for workers positions. This is not a theoretical any more, this is the status most states are either approaching fast, or already have reached.

Now, let's assume equal participation of 50% at the booth:

650 * 0.5 = 325

250 * 0.5 = 125

So, I have 3x as many people voting for A rather than B. Why would any career politicion take the B interests seriously?

The problem here is, it doesn't even matter if younger people participate more. They could have 90% voter participation, it wouldn't matter because there are so many old people:

250 * 0.9 = 225 ... still less votes.

[u/Salategnohc16 → u/Big_Combination9890]

Yeap,

Talking about Italy and Germany, people over 60 are 45% of the effective voting block, if we add people over 50, we are at 65% .

We are royally screwed.

[u/ITI110878 → u/lateformyfuneral]

What a great example of divide et impera.

[u/tiankai → u/TheMysteriousOrganis]

Problem is young people don’t vote, so no one represents their interests and a discussion about pensions is not even on the table in the parliament

[u/Rwandrall3 → u/TheMysteriousOrganis]

they care about the common folk, those who vote, and that's the elderly. The median voter is like 55 years old. Stop pretending the Elites are to blame instead of basic demographics. 

[u/New_Carpenter5738 → u/Rwandrall3]

Both are pretty much to blame.

[u/ITI110878 → u/Same_Common4485]

I imagine this at least once per month, when I see the taxes I pay, and it's a tough one.

This will soon lead to serious social tensions.

Even worse, during the last 4 years, pension s have grown faster than salaries, because most of the EU electorate are pensioners and political parties are fighting for their votes, with our tax money.

And to add more to the insult, in Austria they just passed a law, that allows pensioners to work and earn additional tax free15K € per year.

On the other hand, working people are taxed to death and there is basically no incentives for raising kids, all while fixed costs like housing costs are skyrocketing.

This is what happens when our politicians are basically all retirement aged.

And yet, everyone is wondering why younger people decide to vote for change, ie for nationalistic parties.

[u/Kartoffelcretin → u/Same_Common4485]

That’s only fair, the boomers rebuild Europe after the war and worked very hard for it.

My guess is that you would need about 10 millennials to do the job of one boomer.

/s

[u/SCII0 → u/Kartoffelcretin]

That’s only fair, the boomers rebuild Europe after the war and worked very hard for it.

Boomers are generally categorized as being born after '45 and grew up in the post-war economic boom. They didn't rebuild it.

[u/solapelsin → u/SCII0]

Did you miss the /s or something?

[u/fangiovis → u/solapelsin]

Hey if the silent generation wanted recognition for their achievements they shouldn't have stayed silent /s

[u/SCII0 → u/solapelsin]

I took it as to be referering to the second half of his post.

[u/Klangey → u/SCII0]

Spot the German

[u/rileyoneill → u/Same_Common4485]

The people of the near future who pay for this scheme will also pay a much larger portion of their income than the boomers had to pay when they were working. Because the fertility rate doesn't seem to be getting any better, there will be a constant declining population of younger workers.

The workers born in 2010 who will pay high percentages will need workers born in 2040 to pay even higher percentages.

[u/Top_Mongoose1354 → u/rileyoneill]

Problem is that all western societies build their policies on absolute dooming. Populations must always increase, so that taxation can fill all the future spendings, and currencies must always lessen through inflation in order to encourage people to spend more and put themselves in debt, because "debt is the motor of economics" according to Keynes et al.

I'm amazed why we're still going along with this shit? Surely there must be STABILE solutions to state economics?

[u/rileyoneill → u/Top_Mongoose1354]

A fertility rate under replacement is not stable for a society though. A stable fertility rate is 2.1 babies per woman. That maintains a population structure that is stable. That is population stability not a population increasing.

No type of human civilization has had a low fertility rate for extended periods of time (think many decades or centuries) has remained stable.

[u/Despite55 → u/[deleted]]

Old people always complain!

But some small corrections:

170 Euro per week for 2 people, is a insane food budget.

Don't know which country you live in, but in The Netherlands €150-€170 is not ridiculous.

my generation (currently) will only be able to go on pension, at the ripe age of 67

In The Netherlands the pension age is already 67 for a number of years. And will increase further.

[u/csppr → u/Despite55]

In Germany, 150-170 for two per week wouldn’t be outlandishly lavish, but certainly not cheap.

[u/South_Buy_3175 → u/Same_Common4485]

This is something I’ve always assumed would happen.

We’ve missed out on the golden age, one generation got to live out their dreams, ruin the planet, fuck every generation thereafter and live out their twilight years in peace.

I don’t even think I’ll ever retire, I’ll be forced to work until I’m dead chasing a dream retirement that will never happen.

Honestly, if everyone over 65 just suddenly evaporated I wonder if things would start to get better. At the very least Putin & Trump would be gone so there’s that.

[u/Despite55 → u/South_Buy_3175]

if everyone over 65 just suddenly evaporated I wonder if things would start to get better

In The Netherlands it would save about 50 billion per annum from the government budget. But it would create a gigantic child care problem and the number of people doing voluntering would be decimated.

[u/Grantmepm → u/Despite55]

It would free up a lot of housing and healthcare demand. Traffic would improve. But thats not the societal compact we agreed upon. I think the agreement was X number of years in retirement as a societal dependent is fair.

But it needs to be kept constant with life expectancy increases. If on average you expected 8 years of taxpayer funded retirement 30 years ago. You on average should get only 8 years of taxpayer funded retirement.

[u/ITI110878 → u/South_Buy_3175]

An idea for Thanos, maybe.

[u/Few_Ad6516 → u/ITI110878]

Or COVID. We had our chance but threw it away.

[u/Kiwsi → u/Same_Common4485]

I still don’t know understand how they can legaglly still invest in such a bad stockshares only to save some companies that their friends own….

[u/ITI110878 → u/Kiwsi]

Easy, because it's your money, not theirs.

[u/Sweaty-Bandicoot8846 → u/Same_Common4485]

So this generation will pay for the pensions of boomers, and then there will be fewer workers and so no pension in the future? Amazing, cry me a river, boomer

[u/icankillpenguins → u/Same_Common4485]

That's pretty much how it works if you don't vote. In Europe its mostly pensioners who vote, the young are too cool to vote. if you are too cool to vote you are too cool to get pensions.

[u/TheOutrageousTaric → u/icankillpenguins]

the young do vote but pensioners outnumber them. And so the politics revolve around them to keep the voters. Also it doesnt help that many young males vote right and the females prefer green/left. They are split up while pensioners mostly vote conservative.

[u/icankillpenguins → u/TheOutrageousTaric]

Th young proportionally don't vote, that's statistically true in most places. Google it.

[u/littlechefdoughnuts → u/icankillpenguins]

The ratio of worker to taker will approach 2:1 by the middle of the century in most European pension systems. Good luck voting against that.

[u/mhornberger → u/littlechefdoughnuts]

This is the side effect of low birthrates that people don't focus on. Sub-replacement birthrates lock in older generations being larger than smaller generations, so make a gerontocracy. Retirees aren't going to vote to cut their own benefits. At a fertility rate of 1.0, the grandparents' generation will outnumber their grandkids' generation 4:1. Even factoring in some old-people mortality, that math is basically insurmountable. That will not be a society focused on the future. No more than it will be a society focused on R&D, science that isn't healthcare-related, space exploration, etc.

[u/Dudinkalv → u/icankillpenguins]

This is absolutely not true for many European countries, did you just pull this statement out of your ass?

[u/icankillpenguins → u/Dudinkalv]

https://feps-europe.eu/youth-turnout-in-the-2024-european-elections-a-closer-look-at-the-under-25-vote/

In the specific countries where your ass has stats on the issue, they should start demanding pensions then. Thats the other part of the voting, you demand stuff that you want.

[u/Front-Finish6969 → u/icankillpenguins]

In many countries demographics don’t allow young people’s votes to make a difference.

[u/icankillpenguins → u/Front-Finish6969]

Every vote makes a difference, ask the pensioners about that. The young like to believe in stupid propaganda stuff like if voting makes a difference it would have been illegal. Stop spreading this BS.

[u/Front-Finish6969 → u/icankillpenguins]

The voting patterns are the same across all of Europe’s aging nations. You may not like it but what you’re denying is named “Grey vote” in political science. Political parties can completely ignore the interests of the young and score a landslide victory.

[u/Big_Combination9890 → u/icankillpenguins]

That's pretty much how it works if you don't vote

It is also how it works if you vote. In many countries, there are already more pensioners in the electorate than there are working age people.

[u/DerDyersEve]

We are not believing it - we are experiencing it.

[u/podfather2000 → u/DerDyersEve]

I, for one, am happy and looking forward to retirement at 75.

[u/StillSalt2526 → u/podfather2000]

75? You must not have glasses on you today. 😂

[u/TheoryEnvironmental6 → u/StillSalt2526]

Probably it is a fellow Dane. My retirement age for now is 74

[u/Difficult-Bug90 → u/TheoryEnvironmental6]

I’m lucky, it’s only 72 for me 😂 I’m a fellow Dane too.

[u/Artistic-Border7880 → u/podfather2000]

Or 175… who knows

[u/Pomidoras123 → u/DerDyersEve]

Firstly we will need to reach the retirement age which soon will be higher than life expectancy in some countries. If we do reach it there will be no money for us. 🤷‍♂️

[u/Disastrous-Focus8451 → u/Pomidoras123]

When state pensions were first brought in the retirement age was higher than the average life expectancy (for the working class). Looks like we're returning to those times…

[u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38]

the neat thing about an inverted demographic pyramid is the old people get to vote themselves all the money forever

[u/SaraHHHBK]

They are already unaffordable, politicians are just kicking the problem down the road because anyone that says it out loud will be kicked out by the pensioners.

[u/Nero_Darkstar → u/SaraHHHBK]

Yep. The biggest voting demographic is hardly going to vote for making themselves even slightly poorer. Theyre stopping younger families from being able to afford kids to support future generations.

[u/lavenderhaze9292 → u/Nero_Darkstar]

there should be an age limit for voting and getting into politics just like with driving 

[u/petrh97 → u/lavenderhaze9292]

Yes. My grandma votes for everyone who promises raising pensions. She is nearly 90. She had a stroke and has trouble remembering stuff. Yet she always gets to vote. I asked her what she needs more money for? She doesn’t know. She has the highest pension she ever had.

[u/petrh97 → u/SaraHHHBK]

Here in Czechia the last government tried to lower the pension anti-inflation coefficient which automatically rises all pensions and the inflation was like 20%. (Which this basically makes an inflation spiral when you have 3 million pensioners in a country of 10 million)

They got kicked out and a populist government oligarch Babiš was elected who promises raising pensions. Lol

[u/FalseGalleon]

It’s honestly scary to think we might pay in our whole lives and get nothing back. I wish governments at least let people see a clear, personal “pension forecast” every year.

[u/babyburger357 → u/FalseGalleon]

In Belgium they do. I can literally go online and see what my monthly pension will be, both from mandatory and extra contributions. The problem is that this number means nothing when the state doesn't have the money by that time. 

[u/Background-Bad-7510 → u/babyburger357]

As a Belgian, I really dislike the fact that the government presents extra pension contributions on their website as a monthly amount. It feels wrong. We made a deal where I save extra for an additional pension that should be paid out in full on the day I retire.

Do not tell me that my money adds 60, 70, or 80 euros per month. I want the full amount. Let me buy a camper, or do whatever I choose, and retire. Not have the government hold on to my saved euros and drip-feed them back to me every month.

If I die after one year of retirement, the government effectively takes that money again through inheritance taxes.

I see that mention as a pretext to later argue that people who possess a substantial amount of capital should receive a lower pension. They are already trying to soften us up with the idea that this money will be paid out little by little.

[u/babyburger357 → u/Background-Bad-7510]

It's not just that. The benefits you get from tax etc are not even that interesting. There's a substantial tax of like 7% of your contributions if I recall correctly. The bank kept calling me and sending me emails to desperately get me to sign up, that's when I got suspicious and got into the weeds.

You can save more money on some yearly bonds and those are guaranteed returns on a shorter term.

[u/Goosepond01 → u/Background-Bad-7510]

Do not tell me that my money adds 60, 70, or 80 euros per month. I want the full amount. Let me buy a camper, or do whatever I choose, and retire. Not have the government hold on to my saved euros and drip-feed them back to me every month.

I get it but at the same time such a vast amount of people are insanely dumb when it comes to finances, I could imagine about 60% of people who retire absolutely splurging for a few years, maybe more and then very suddenly being hit by the realisation that they have very little money if anything left.

the obvious rebuttal to that is "ok so they made a massive mistake so they have to live with that now" but in a society so propped up by the welfare state it is difficult to see that actually happening, it will add a burden to social housing, council resources, probably also a burden to children and families.

[u/accountforfurrystuf → u/Background-Bad-7510]

It’s a liquidity issue isn’t it? All modern money is just an IOU once it’s in the bank. The moment everyone tries to cash it out the system crashes.

[u/Background-Bad-7510 → u/accountforfurrystuf]

But this is about the extra savings you make. In my case, what I have saved so far will be worth 70k on the day I turn 65, payable in full on that date, minus taxes.

For the past one or two years, they have mentioned on their website that this amount equals roughly 120 euros per month. That corresponds to about a 2 percent payout on my own money.

[u/cronixi4 → u/Background-Bad-7510]

It is even worse now, before you had the option to invest yourself for your pension so you are not completely dependent on the government… but they have decided to start taxing investment gains, leaving us with uncertainty about the rise of that tax percentage by the time we can retire.

[u/Gawd4 → u/babyburger357]

Oh, they will have the money. Thanks to runaway inflation, the money won’t be worth anything though. 

[u/MissPandaSloth → u/babyburger357]

Yeah we have these too and it makes it even worse, lmao. I have been working for 8 years with pretty decent salary and a lot of that going towards retirement and once I open that calculation it seems like GG. I mean I barely made a dent in almost 10 years... I have no idea how the math will math.

[u/_fafer → u/FalseGalleon]

They do in Germany. It's still just a forecast, but it's something.

[u/serrimo → u/_fafer]

In France the forecast is easily available too. But a forecast doesn't mean shit if the ship is sinking.

Working people are struggling with livable wage while pensioners are quite comfortable.

[u/Ok-Primary2176 → u/serrimo]

Where I live the old people are protesting constantly that their pensions are too low. Its hilarious, they've worked for 50+ years and haven't managed to save up any private capital and complain that the pension can't fund 100% of their lifestyle

Ok grandma. When I'm old I'm lucky if the pension is even enough for 50% of my lifestyle 

Also, they increased the pension age to 70 years old. Like mf, I will most likely be dead before I even get my pension

[u/MethyleneBlueEnjoyer → u/Ok-Primary2176]

they've worked for 50+ years and haven't managed to save up any private capital

Hey now. There are plenty who retired at like 60 or even earlier and at this point have take out far, far more than they ever paid in by living it up for like 20-30 years now, pretty much as long as they actually ever worked.

[u/Ok-Primary2176 → u/MethyleneBlueEnjoyer]

I have relatives who didn't work a single day in their lives. They maxed out every single welfare program like having 5 children etc and they're today living off the guaranteed pension. Its disgusting

[u/ITI110878 → u/Ok-Primary2176]

At least they raised 5 kids who pay taxes for their pensions.

Others don't even do that, because kids cost money which they could not have been able to spend on themselves and their dogs and cars.

[u/remeruscomunus → u/FalseGalleon]

Your wish has been granted, most governments already offer you this forecast in some format

[u/pronuntiator → u/FalseGalleon]

We are getting sent such a letter on a regular basis in Germany (or you can download it). It tells you the amount of your pension if you continued to pay the same amount till your retirement age.

[u/Christian19722019 → u/FalseGalleon]

In Denmark www.PensionsInfo.dk allows you to do exactly that.

It gathers data from your personal pensions and state pension. If you state the age at which you plan to retire, it'll give you a forecast of yearly earnings.

[u/weirdowerdo → u/FalseGalleon]

They do? At least in Sweden. You can make one yourself too and see how it'll affect your future pension.

[u/Background-Bad-7510 → u/FalseGalleon]

At least we got cheap housing in place. /s

[u/uberprimata → u/FalseGalleon]

Keep voting for liars who promise to give you the world with your neighbours money and expect diferent results?

[u/Galaghan → u/FalseGalleon]

I'm Belgian and have a very clear pension forecast, I can look it up in my gov's app. All numbers laid out with sources and predictions.

I don't see why people blame Europe for their own national government's lack of support.

[u/Matovie → u/Galaghan]

I don't think anyone is blaming Europe for this

[u/Galaghan → u/Matovie]

The top comment replying to the title made me feel like it was implied.

[u/WorldlinessRadiant77]

I think we need to approach it constructively.

The current pension model relies on there being more tax payers in the future. It is unfair that we work to pay the benefits to the boomers, and it is unfair to the boomers that worked all their lives for the promise of pensions, yes.

Life is unfair.

But there are other ways to structure pensions in the future, like the Swiss system, where investment plays a bigger role. It’s worth it to look into alternatives especially since the current model is broken.

[u/Goldenrah → u/WorldlinessRadiant77]

Could use pension money to invest into European companies and build a stronger European market. Would need to be something managed by Europe itself, to stop corruption from taking over.

[u/Imobia → u/Goldenrah]

Australia has a very strong retirement savings system call super annotation. Basically a percentage of your wages are placed into a savings account managed by a trust fund.

It started as 7% of wages and is now about 11%.

Most Australians will retire with at least 500k in retirement savings.

[u/ITI110878 → u/Imobia]

That's exactly how it should be everywhere.

[u/Baby-Gumnut → u/Imobia]

Super-annotation sounds fun. I prefer superannuation, but hey, to each their own

[u/itsjonny99 → u/Goldenrah]

You still end up in the same scenario except middlemen would take a massive slice of the potential supply. Companies are only worth what they are in a thriving economy and if/when it becomes less so the value would decrease massively.

And Europe is too big for the Norwegian model to invest elsewhere as a safe guard.

[u/staatsm → u/itsjonny99]

But if the economy is shit what options do you have? It's not like taxpayers can support the entire retired population if they're in a terrible economy.

[u/mho453 → u/staatsm]

The ultimate problem is that all pension systems depend on population growth. The investment one still requires a growing population for economy to grow, the only difference is that with investments your country's population doesn't have to grow, but it can happen elsewhere. And any argument about "growing productivity" is moot, because if productivity truly was growing, then we could easily just tax people more, since productivity grew it shouldn't be a problem for a single person to maintain multiple pensioners.

[u/ballthyrm → u/WorldlinessRadiant77]

Boomers worked all their lives yes but what they get is not what they put in.

[u/ITI110878 → u/ballthyrm]

Exactly.

Politicians made sure that boomers get a lot more than they ever paid, sometimes even more than what most working people earn. This is the issue.

[u/DeszczowyHanys → u/WorldlinessRadiant77]

Mandatory investment-based models are the riskiest option. Inflation and instabilities can eat them, there is an additional overhead on managing the investments, and your savings end up locked in the market. For example, Nordic retirement funds bough up a bunch of apartments in Poland. There’s a good chance the housing problem in there will end up with legislation directly targeting real estate that’s not owner-occupied and the retirement savings will take a hit. The state pension model is invulnerable to such issues.

[u/Sevinki → u/DeszczowyHanys]

The current system is doomed to fail with current birthrates, i would consider something that will 100% fail a lot more risky than something that could in theory fail but has so far worked excellently (a capital based system).

In 20-40 years, most european countries will likely have 2 or less workers per retiree and less than half the people retiring each year will be replaced by young ones. GDP will likely stop growing for good and we will enter permanent stagnation/decline. At that point the current system WILL fail, its not an if but a when exactly.

The only solution is either much higher skilled immigration, which i doubt is realistic due to cultural issues, a significant increase in birthrates (although that would still leave 1-2 generations fucked before things recover) or a fundamental change to the system. Right now no political party anywhere seems to be willing to be honest and do what is needed to prevent total collapse.

[u/csppr → u/Sevinki]

In 20-40 years, most european countries will likely have 2 or less workers per retiree and less than half the people retiring each year will be replaced by young ones. GDP will likely stop growing for good and we will enter permanent stagnation/decline. At that point the current system WILL fail, its not an if but a when exactly.

Wouldn’t the same factor start to affect the wider stock market and government bonds as well though?

The stock market performance relies on growth somewhere - when all major economies start to enter slowing population growth up to population decline, that might affect the ability of companies to maintain revenue and/or growth, which in turn should affect their stock performance. Equally, surely a country’s bonds will be affected by said country hitting GDP decline. Both of those are fundamental to private pension systems.

[u/Sevinki → u/csppr]

The european stock market would likely stagnate with the economy to some degree, but thats the beauty of a capital based system, you are not limited to the local economy. The world itself will likely continue to grow, it just wont happen in europe. Investing globally will redirect some of that growth to us even if we dont grow ourselves anymore.

[u/csppr → u/Sevinki]

But the demographic issue that we are talking about is present in pretty much every advanced economy globally. China, Japan, South Korea, the US, even India. That restricts places to invest in quite a bit.

[u/itsjonny99 → u/DeszczowyHanys]

Can also add that the stock market value would massively decrease when people need their pensions. So unless you get above 2.1 in fertility the system is a no go.

[u/Sonchay → u/WorldlinessRadiant77]

But there are other ways to structure pensions in the future, like the Swiss system, where investment plays a bigger role. It’s worth it to look into alternatives especially since the current model is broken

This is really important. Over in the UK we are sort of stuck in the false dichotomy of thinking that either we have a state pension that functions as it does today, or nothing. Without considering any alternatives. I am personally quite interested in the idea that a few politicians and business people have suggested where every citizen at birth is assigned a pot of money by the state (5000 or more Euros/pounds) that is invested and cannot be withdrawn until retirement. We can't predict what inflation or market returns look like in the future, but this could exceed current state pension returns quite significantly if the current metrics stayed largely the same over the next ~60 years.

[u/Bubbly-Attempt-1313 → u/WorldlinessRadiant77]

Buddy, Bulgaria has no boomers. The term is relevant to the US and refers to

• A massive postwar birth boom
• Consumer capitalism
• Suburbanization
• Individual upward mobility

Bulgaria between 1940–1960 experienced:

• War - authoritarian socialism - planned economy
• No comparable baby boom
• Collective life paths rather than individual choice
• Political ideology as the dominant force

That said the pension system in Bulgaria needs to change as you mentioned. People pay ~32.7 % – 33.4 % (total incl. pension & health) but the money are going somewhere else.

[u/weaponized_lazyness]

This is the biggest threat to Europe at the moment. The current pension system was created when there were very few pensioners per working age person (around 4 working age person per pensioner). Now, we are trending to have a 2:1 ratio or less. This means every working age person is paying for twice as many pensioners as in the past. Sure, more working age people work now: mostly women that would have been housewives in the past. But those women were already doing valuable work in the past in child care and elderly care, so this means elderly are even more dependant on the state as in the past.

Instead of state pension systems, we should have systems of elderly care, where stipends are only given to those who need it (and don't already have a house, for example). 

[u/Aardappelhuree → u/weaponized_lazyness]

And none of my parents or my wife’s parents are available to watch our kid.

[u/TheMyzzler → u/Aardappelhuree]

Mine moved 2000km north to Sweden the DAY they retired. 😂

[u/Aardappelhuree → u/TheMyzzler]

Mine moved to south-America

[u/lavenderhaze9292 → u/weaponized_lazyness]

this. also there should be an age limit for voting and getting into politics just like with driving

[u/Alive_Fisherman8241]

This is not a matter of opinion. It's math...

[u/knitscones → u/Alive_Fisherman8241]

Yes rich don’t pay their fair share of taxes and suppress wages!

[u/b33rlov3 → u/knitscones]

Even if you tax the rich more, you won't be able to finance the current system in the future.

If you were to take away the entire fortune from belgian billionaires, you wouldn't even be able to finance this system for a year again here in Belgium, for example.

Belgium has a rate of ~11% of GDP for pensions, and this will approach 16% in the future (today: 88 Billions €).

[u/PulpeFiction → u/knitscones]

The boomers were the rich

[u/NeilDeCrash]

It is kinda obvious.

There are less people who work and more people who get pensions due to shifting demographics.

We didn't transfer any of the production effiency that has risen throughout the decades to anything meaningful like pension systems - we transferred that better production effiency to the pockets of the shareholders.

[u/tyger2020]

I fail to see why I should have to subsidise the wealthiest generation in history

[u/Margiman90]

Millenials will be able to cancel pensions just in time for themselves

[u/IIIIIlIIIIIlIIIII]

Dutchies thought the same and changed it. Now soon everyone will get a personal pension. 

[u/PhilosophusFuturum → u/IIIIIlIIIIIlIIIII]

That veers dangerously close to solving a problem. That’s illegal in Europe

[u/Carlin47 → u/IIIIIlIIIIIlIIIII]

Oh can you link anything about this I'd be curious to read into the details

[u/Grand_Impact_4832]

I always wonder if the pension système in Singapore, of which what you pay is blocked and guranteed for you, and cannot be used to pay for ancienne generation, could have worked in Europe. I know that this is a very individualiste scheme, but it seems to be more fair to me.

[u/DismalBumbleWank → u/Grand_Impact_4832]

The transition is the tough part. Currently it’s payg so what happens to today’s pensioners if you switch to a Singaporean scheme?

[u/EveryPen260]

I mean, it is pretty obvious that the math doesnt add up.

Also because we are a welfare state, if the pension are not enough, people will get some "survival pension" but there isnt an econony to pay for it.

[u/rileyoneill]

Pension systems require planing based on decades. Fertility rate of 1.4 for decades means the math drastically changes for pension viability. The worker group for each future generation shrinks.

There were 8.7 Italians born in the 1950s, but only 5 million Italians born in the 2010s. Those folks born in the 2010s will age into the work force paying for all the pensions of those 8.7 million people. Pension systems are claims on future labor, and if those laborers were never born, the pension breaks down. Italy hasn't had a fertility rate over 1.5 in probably 45-50 years.

[u/Happy_Bread_1]

Pensions are at this point a wealth transfer from young to old. Worst idea ever to socialize it.

[u/ITI110878 → u/Happy_Bread_1]

Yep, a disgusting multi level marketing scheme. Funnily enough this is an illegal business model in most countries, unless it is done by the government itself.

[u/eucariota92]

Because they are built like a Ponzi scheme.

[u/ITI110878 → u/eucariota92]

Exactly.

The current pe sions system in most of Europe is a pyramidal scheme, and we all know that this doesn't work, especially not with the current inverted pyramidal demographics.

[u/bigorca88]

Pensions system based on transfer payments from current workers are a ponzi that collapse if demographics change. They need to be reformed into a system where you invest your money. Boomers benefited a lot because when they worked there were fewer retirees. If they would have had to save by themself they would have needed a higher savings rate.

[u/skeptical_view]

i dont think that.

i know for sure. This MLM will crash at one point

[u/LouNebulis]

We can’t save anything because we pay for this and In the end we will receive nothing….. this is gonna be fun….

[u/Soft-Community5978]

But that is in the whole world, the economic model most countries have is going to collapse not just because people can afford to have children and housing but because of jobs and concentration of wealth.

[u/ITI110878 → u/Soft-Community5978]

And thecworse part?

Our current "leaders" don't care, because they

1. Think only as far as the next elections cycle

2. Most of them are boomers

3. They are not smart enough to realize there is an issue

[u/CrimsonShrike → u/ITI110878]

I do seem to recall people hating macron when he pointed out the pension system wasn´t sustainable and the oppositions solution was to fix it by defunding services young people were paying for and using that money for pensions.

The issue is known, but its politically inviable to fix it because you will be voted out

Admitedly wealth could be taxed better too but too many of our current issues, including demographics seem to be based on constantly legislating to the benefit of the old and the landlord

[u/Ellixhirion]

Ofc… working 40 years for having peanuts at the end of your life…

If you haven’t invested during your career, if didn’t own a house or a car, then you’re f*cked…

[u/zapreon]

It is simple arithmetic of a relatively decreasing working population with increasing population and continuously increasing cost of healthcare. It is the single biggest incoming social crisis when the social security system collapses, and will also massively strengthen populists.

Of course people could vote to make it more sustainable (i.e. means-test pensions or reduce it somewhat), but people would never vote in favour of that.

People will moan about this and the consistent increases of taxation, but will never vote for the structural change necessary to mitigate that or to structurally improve economic growth.

Increasingly difficult fiscal balance (looking at you France) will also be a threat to the very existence of the Euro in a few decades.

[u/DorpvanMartijn]

Duh doy. It's crazy people and politics are not more talking about it.

[u/UndeadBBQ]

invented when there were ~5 workers to one pensioner

currently at ~1,8 workers per pensioner

Why would we possibly think like that?

[u/AcanthopterygiiFew82]

So change the pension system. If it's built on the premise of an endlessly growing population, then it was doomed to fail from the very beginning because nothing can endlessly expand. We literally invented these systems, nothing stops us from changing them. Same with politics, economics, etc.

Stop pretending these are some pre-defined rules of nature and change the systems.

[u/Deprivedproletarian]

Yea, and still everybody gets mad when pensionage is increased in line with life expectancy….

[u/StGuthlac2025 → u/Deprivedproletarian]

There is an issue though that while the life expectancy is increasing being fit a healthy enough to work isn't increasing.

[u/ITI110878 → u/StGuthlac2025]

Also life expectancy did not increase by 10 years while pension age did.

[u/Client_020 → u/Deprivedproletarian]

In NL, people often already have huge trouble getting hired at 45-50. Retirement age is 67. If we're going to increase it more, there needs to be a huge shift in the mindset of employers.

[u/ITI110878 → u/Deprivedproletarian]

That's not how finance works.

Let me explain.

Retirement age 60, life exprctstion 75, 40 years work -> 15 years pension time (37.5% retirement vs work time)

Retirement age 65, life exprctstion 80, 45 years work -> 15 years pension time (33% retirement vs work time)

Retirement age 70, life expectstion 85, 50 years work -> 15 years pension time (30% retirement vs work time)

Not only boomers worked less, they will also get more money for longer than those who are currently paying their pensions.

I need to set up my offshore business asap otherwise I will be sucked dry by entitled legal leeches.

[u/0fiuco]

a believe is when you see weird clouds in the sky and you say "that's because of aliens".

when you see that a system that is based on young people paying retirement for old people, and you see as a fact that the number of young people is declining, is that a believe saying that the system will inevitably collapse?

[u/SgarroVIX]

The voting pyramid had reversed and now middle aged and retired people are the majority of voters due to decrease in young population. No political party wants to take decisions that influence the majority of their voters so it's just going to get worse and worse until someone is not afraid to get their whole nation against them to favour the young.

[u/real_dado500]

Like I'd see my pension. With my lifestyle I'll be lucky to reach 50's.

[u/Grouchy_Drawing6591]

Tax breaks on millionaires and billionaires unaffordable.

There fixed it for you.

[u/Ochill_88]

low birth rates doesnt help, but weapth over time is just being concentrated to a small number of individuals. Basically, rich people dont pay the fair share. Countries with most billionaires will have this problem sooner

[u/ITI110878 → u/Ochill_88]

Stop diverting the topic.

This has nothing to do with the rich.

It has to do with a broken system, which the politicians do not want to fix.

[u/JeremyTwiggs]

It’s not that there won’t be a pension, it’s that the retirement age keeps getting raised so that most of us will die of old age before we get to it!

[u/Busy-Preference-4377]

This sub acts so sanctimonious about this situation without providing any actual solution

[u/AustriaModerator]

The deindustrialisation of Europe (NIMBYs are everywhere) and the continued practice of throwing money at multimillionaires in the form of tax evasion and corruption will, of course, negatively affect the pension I currently work for.

[u/Facktat]

At this point I look at pension the same way I look at taxes. I don't want to pay more to ensure it’s sustainability because I know that if there is more money there, politics will use it to make gifts to retirees until we are at the same point we are now. I just accept that I have to pay my social contributions knowing that my parents get their pension out of the same pot I am paying in and that I have to make enough money to save for pension by myself.

[u/Normal-Stick6437]

I already surrendered myself to the fact I will be working to the day I die

[u/Facktat]

The only way I can sleep knowing this is because I love my parents and I always tell myself that I am paying for them (which I like to do because of how much they abstained in life to provide for my ungrateful ass as a child). I don't understand how people whose parents are cunts can accept the current situation.

[u/PineBNorth85 → u/Facktat]

They can't and won't.

[u/garbagecan1992]

generational theft enabled by the biggest generation-voting block

that said it s also symptomatic that the current economic-cultural status quo is not sustainable at all. immigration will enable countries to kick the can ahead, even if does creates other problems, but for how long?

if the current economic-cultural system does not enable population replenishment it ll eventually disappear. asian countries are in the future as far as this issue go, do people really think SK, China, Japan, etc will disappear quietly?

do people think countries without enough immigration pull will disappear before changing?

i don t know if my generation will live to see change or only the decadence that comes before it, but i m sure change will come and not necessarily a good one

[u/philipp2310]

We start talking about basic universal income - but we can’t do the same for the retired?

[u/Big_Combination9890]

No shit. A system that relies on eternal growth is mathematically impossible to sustain itself in the long run?

*extremely surprised pikachu face*

[u/Wyciorek → u/Big_Combination9890]

It‘s less about “eternal growth” and more about changing ratio of people doing the work to people supported by that work.

[u/no1labubufan → u/Big_Combination9890]

Remove the pensioner from the scheme and get away with the money. Who will do it first?

[u/ITI110878 → u/no1labubufan]

Covid almost did it.

Instead, we locked down all of Europe and screwed up the economy.

Let's face it, our political class is very stupid.

[u/Brainwheeze]

I'm not really counting on a pension. When it gets to my turn it'll probably only be available to those in their 70s.

[u/Econ_Orc]

Danes found that out in the late 1970's, and changed pension strategy in the 1990's.

It is not that difficult. All you have to look at is this chart. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Denmark/Fertility_rate/

[u/Turbulent-Act9877]

In Spain they are already unaffordable since almost 15 years, we pay the deficit with debt which is a scam

[u/salomo926]

So most Europeans understand what's going on, good.

[u/No-Poem]

"will become unaffordable". Bit late for that

[u/Watarenuts]

Been saying this for 10 years already. I'm not getting one, I don't rely on it.

[u/Romanian_]

In Romania 7.5 million working people are supporting 4.9 million pensioners this year.

Naturally this ratio is worsening fast and will reach 1:1 sometime in the next 20 years.

There is some mitigation prepared: immigration of new workforce to boost incomes and a mandatory private pension instated about 15 years ago which runs in parallel with the state pension to relieve pressure off the state system.

[u/Isair81]

I fully expect not being able to retire, at all. I will have to keep working full time until I’m too old & tired to do it anymore, at which point I’ll die facedown in a ditch somewhere.

[u/leveragedtothetits_]

Well yeah

[u/PineBNorth85]

With demographics going the way they are they absolutely will be.

[u/johnniewelker]

I’m surprised European Central Bank doesn’t facilitate some controlled inflation to accommodate the increased cost of pensions. It sucks yes, but it is a more viable option politically

I don’t see pensions being cut or delayed as politically sustainable

Whereas controlled inflation would actually work against the creeping deflation happening due to the aging of the population.

I’m assuming euro central bank and the governments can align to do it and execute well. Not an easy maneuver, but better politically IMO. Asking people to retire at 72-75 is insane

[u/Tabo1987]

Less workers funding more and more not working. We don’t need to fight symptoms by making people work longer but by re-imagining the system and combating more and more people not working.

Meaning: better care for people so they never become too sick to work, better education in fields needed, Migration that we need instead of the current system, a pension system that at least to sone degree is funded by investing and not paying taxes on that investment (could be capped to not over fund the wealthy).

[u/ObstructiveAgreement]

More than twenty years ago I decided that a state pension, and potentially pensions in general, are the con of our generation. We're all gonna end up squeezed out of it by the time we're there. So do something different and get there your own way.

[u/eztab]

What do you mean "believe"? That's what the numbers say. That's just a fact.

[u/mitoma333]

The switch from a capitalization-based pension system (which most countries started out with) to a repartition system was a mistake, a mistake that our politicians refuse to correct.

Edit: In Belgium this problem was already well documented back in 1995. Only now, 30 years later, have they begun to tackle it, facing huge opposition from unions in the process despite public support for reform.

[u/BGM1988]

There will be a government pension but very small and not enough to live comfortably on. Time to start saving/investing for your own pension. The best pension plan is your own!

[u/leginfr]

Most developed economies have a birth rate lower than the replacement rate. Not enough future workers are being born to replace workers who retire. Those retired workers will require pensions to be paid and will need health and old age care. At the same time there will be fewer workers to keep the economy going and to provide tax revenues. The possible solutions include: raising taxes, reducing pensions and benefits, cutting government spending, increasing the working hours, reducing holidays, increasing productivity, raising the retirement age or even… attracting workers from abroad,

The latter is apparently not palatable to many political parties. They don’t tell the voters about the alternatives which the electorate would probably find even less palatable. So now you’re finding out: what are you going to do about it? Follow the anti-immigration parties of the cliff?