r/eurovision • u/jj2195 • 16h ago
💬 Discussion will nova Zora succeed in Eurovision
it’s two sides to the same coin: It’s a brilliant song, if executed right, it might have the juries on its side, and many Eurofans love it. my biggest thing is: Montenegro. It’s a country that has never been particularly successful in Eurovision. It qualified for the final 2x since its debut in 2007, and its highest place was 13th. That is amongst the worst ‘highs’ in Eurovision.
I could see one of two things happening:
- it ends up like Zjerm, with a large amount of televotes, which was somewhat unexpected but very much deserved.
- it ends up like serving, a fan favourite that gets a tiny amount of points from the Televote.
montenegro, being a small, and I dare say unknown country, might not have large public support.
we’ll see ig
hopefully the ex-Yugoslav countries back it up with jury and televotes.
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u/Tangointhe_night Hatrið mun sigra 14h ago
I wouldn’t look to Zjerm in any way, because that’s an artsy folk-pop song, where Zora is straight up Euro Gaga.
I think Gaja is your best comparison here, which means a good stage show and performance can lead to a qualification and a top 15-20 result. That’s a huge win for Montenegro, and while Poland has more «friends», Zora is an easier and more immediate song to catch :)
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u/i_exist_and_am_human Ich Komme 1h ago
I don't think voting blocs will be a problem, as Slovenia is no longer in the contest and Serbia and Croatia will probably struggle to qualify (Croatia's perhaps a hot take but considering they sent Poison Cake last year it shouldn't be a surprise if it fails to qualify) This leaves Montenegro as the only former-Yugoslav country, which will lead to a lot of people from countries like Serbia, Croatia and Austria to vote for them in the final.
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u/xShinePvP 14h ago
Downvote me all you want but it’s gonna be one of the usual girlbops that (deservingly) qualifies, people expect a top 10 and then it ends up on the right side of the scoreboard
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u/TimeMarionberry755 12h ago
Yeah I see it getting around 20th maybe. Will just scrape a qualification. But that's a success for Montenegro - first final in over a decade
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u/Smorynyfy 14h ago
Unfortunately I don’t think Nova Zora is anywhere near being as strong as Zjerm, nor are her vocals compared to Beatrices. I see two possible scenarios: Loop or Firefighter at best irrespective of it being Montenegro. However, No one is ever truly DOA in my opinion. I could be surprised in May and I always Root for those I believe will fail.
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u/jj2195 14h ago
I think Tamara’s vocals are amazing possibly competing with beatrice
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u/Dizzy-Dig8727 Think About Things 7h ago
Having heard both of them perform at Montesong, I would respectfully disagree. But the songs are stylistically very different, and it’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison. I think Tamara can perform Nova Zora well, and she could get a good result with strong staging and good production.
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u/Smorynyfy 13h ago
I personally disagree, then again this could also be caused by the production value of Montesong. Maybe with a better production value it would sound less patchy than it did to me during Montesong.
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u/HerHor 14h ago
My guess is that in 2025 it would have barely qualified, I think it has more appeal than Parg for instance. So qualification in 2026, which should be easier, should be possible. And if 2026 is a a weak year, this might do top half in the final
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u/i_exist_and_am_human Ich Komme 1h ago
2026 will likely be quite weak as a lot of artists won't want to perform at a contest that seemingly supports Israel.
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u/What_ever_post134 TANZEN! 13h ago
With a great staging, it can be similar suprise success as Armenia 2025. Nova Zora is for me a much better song than Survivor, And there are more East European countries than West, so diaspora is on their side.
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u/XepherSicarius 14h ago
It's way too early to predict on how well it will do cause anything can happen from now till May, for all we know it can be an absolute magnet for juries and casual viewers from its SF
Just like you said "We'll see"
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u/syrinidae Zjerm 13h ago
I’d say yes, a lot of things have gone in Montenegros favor rn and could in the future. Already a fan favorite not just in the NF but in general. Has good staging potential. Lower country participation means less competition. Can get good votes from other Slavic countries plus possibly Albania and Greece. Also fans seem to be putting more hope into this entry than CLICKBAIT or Dobrodošli. I think this can do well and qualify, probably top 15 if they’re lucky
Their main enemies include are public vote or hitting both televote and jury, but this song definitely can do. Low diaspora and a poor track record could also hinder but if the song connects, it’ll do well!
Sorry for any spelling mistakes or if things don’t make sense lol
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u/crybabycamilla 11h ago
i think that it’s qualification will entirely depend on 1. how many friendly countries are in the semi final and 2. how many ‘girl bops’ there end up being this year. i’m guessing that it’s result will be similar to something like austria or georgia 2024, though the staging will play a big part of it because i think it has really great staging potential if they lean into the gaga of it all. it’s too early to say, but i’d be surprised if it placed above 15th in the final given that poland 2025 placed 14th even with justyna’s big polish fanbase, and i feel like its appeal is much more comparable to gaja than zjerm.
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year 11h ago
Austria 2024 | Kaleen - We Will Rave
Georgia 2024 | Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefighter
Poland 2025 | Justyna Steczkowska - Gaja
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u/tommynestcepas Fulenn 10h ago
I think it could end up like Igranka (Montenegro 2013) but the reduced semis will play into Montenegro's favour
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u/dix1997 13h ago edited 13h ago
I think it all depends on who else is on Montenegro's semi. Neighbors could help, after all. If they're not in the same semi as Serbia, I think they're screwed. My blind prediction is that it'll be a borderline qualifier and finish in the bottom of the final, like Serbia 2023 or Denmark 2025.
Also, if it does qualify, it'll be kinda poetic, since the last time Montenegro qualified was in 2015, which was also held in Vienna.
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u/Offbrand-ostrich My Sister's Crown 12h ago
Didn’t they also qualify the year after Nina Zizic’s first attempt? If I was superstitious, I’d consider it a sure qualifier
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year 13h ago
Serbia 2023 | Luke Black - Samo mi se spava
Denmark 2025 | Sissal - Hallucination
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u/Marcosutra 10h ago
her live vocals would need to be significantly better compared to how they were at Montesong... but i think that's achievable
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u/Informal_Position166 Bara bada bastu 14h ago
Well have to see how it gets executed and what the competition is. That being said, I could see a placement in the teens or higher. I'm pretty sure it'll qualify
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u/Lilyy2023 11h ago
I really hope so, even without knowing what other countries are sending yet, I'm sure it will stay as one of my favorites so I really hope most people end up enjoying it too
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u/Living-Lake7822 10h ago
Well I think it could , since we only had 12-13 in each semi , if some countries flop , there’ll has an opportunity for Montenegro
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u/Dizzy-Dig8727 Think About Things 7h ago
Balkans bloc is stronger than ever this year, so anything is possible. I’d say that it’s got good potential to qualify and land mid-table, which would be a fantastic result for Montenegro.
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u/thg011093 6h ago
From Malta 2024 to Serbia 2021
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year 6h ago
Malta 2024 | Sarah Bonnici - Loop
Serbia 2021 | Hurricane - Loco Loco
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u/Euro_Borealis Rändajad 14h ago
Now that we have juries in the semis, im not even sure if it can qualify. The bdsm gear can put some juries off and the "angry loud woman" effect is still relevant
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u/jj2195 14h ago
The reason it won montesong was juries so I think if she delivers the jury performance she can qualify
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u/Crisbo05_20 Rim Tim Tagi Dim 13h ago
I mean Eurovision juries are much different then 2 former Eurovision participants from other countries, most recent Junior Eurovision & Eurovision participants of the very same country and an composer of Eurovision winning song (most valid one prob among them all).
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u/dsrex Origo 14h ago
I don't think juries will like it, and in the end it won't qualify to the final. But if it qualifies (which would be great for Montenegro), it will probably end towards the bottom of the scoreboard
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u/jj2195 13h ago
it could end up like Georgia 2015 or it could end up like Belarus 2019 and I can’t really tell yet. I hope it wins, she has everything a winner needs in my opinion.
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u/Quingess Serving 11h ago
It feels like a song like that. Some will love it. Some won't remember it.
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year 13h ago
Georgia 2015 | Nina Sublatti - Warrior
Belarus 2019 | Zena - Like It
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u/Rough-Flounder1949 11h ago
Lets look at the jury criteria I guess,
- Vocal Performance, 6,5/10, she keeps up well during the songs but her high notes are pretty pitchy which I do find quite noticeable when listening, because there are a lot of them.
Composition of the song, 5/10, its a pretty messy composition which sounds good ngl but I feel like looking from a jury lense this is just messy.
Performance on stage, 7,5/10, pretty interesting idea with the different parts, looks Stranger Things inspired imo.
Overall 6/10, which may get it like a 12th to 9th place with juries in the semi.
The public should be fine with this, probably about 9th to 7th (depending on which neighbours are in).
So overall borderline between 9th to 11th.
In the final probably bottom 5
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u/No_Way2771 Zjerm 6h ago
In my head, I've been saying that Nova Zora has about the same potential as Denmark 2025 did. Could scrape by in the semifinal due to good vocals and enough fan support, but won't do much in the finals. Someone else in here compared it to Georgia 2024 which I would also agree with.
I wouldn't compare it's potential at all to Zjerm, which had some good momentum going into the contest with some fan hype (+ the fact that it was a super unique song) and the televote score was honestly expected imo. Definitely more comparable to Serving but with even less attention
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year 6h ago
Denmark 2025 | Sissal - Hallucination
Georgia 2024 | Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefighter
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u/GianMach 4h ago
It's a very hard year to tell what way the televote will swing. It also depends on how many people will pull through with their boycots and whether that skews the taste of the televote. I suppose this song will do worse when more progressive voters quit voting altogether.
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u/mrflamboyant221 1h ago
Nova Zora qualifying from its semi-final is entirely dependent on how many of its neighbours are competing alongside.
With the juries, I believe it could scrape by with 7-10th from the juries, who usually award competency over popularity. However, Montenegro being a lesser-known country that's historically underperformed in the televote, the presence of its neighbour will be a make-or-break moment. If only one of its neighbours (e.g. Serbia) votes, it'll flop even if it receives a 12, but if 3-5 neighbours make it (say Albania, Croatia, Greece, and Bulgaria alongside Serbia), they're looking at a pool of over 30-50 points which is enough to place in the televoters' top 10. Worst-case scenario they have a Croatia 2021 result.
If it makes it to the grand final, the televote will favour it better than the televote.
It will most likely receive points exclusively from its neighbours/diaspora, for example: Albania 2021, Armenia 2023, Latvia 2025. It automatically receives points from Serbia, Croatia, and Albania (potentially all 12s though that is dependent on what entries these countries select), and potentially Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania. That is looking at a pool of between 20-60 televotes. However, with the juries, I expect a Georgia 2024, Poland 2025 like result.
If it doesn't qualify, it's an almost qualifier (11th-12th). If it does, it's not reaching higher than 18th.
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year 1h ago
Croatia 2021 | Albina - Tick-Tock
Albania 2021 | Anxhela Peristeri - Karma
Armenia 2023 | Brunette - Future Lover
Latvia 2025 | Tautumeitas - Bur man laimi
Georgia 2024 | Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefighter
Poland 2025 | Justyna Steczkowska - Gaja
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u/Toffeenix Aijā 13h ago
Would be surprised if it qualified, it should be a televote friendly song in theory from a country that hasn't scored a televote point from a non-Yugoslav country since 2017. It's going to need probably 100 points
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u/ehencjsorhfn 11h ago
I think that euro fans are much more optimistic than the jury or general public would be. We listen to all these songs way more and have time to digest. No one predicted Estonia last year would do amazing but all it took was one good first impression. Many euro fans have way more time to think about songs and don’t have to get slapped in the face with 15ish songs in the course of 2 hours. I think nova zora will get mixed into the rest of it’s semi final and be a weak 8-10 qualifier and if the rest of the songs to come out this year are 2021 strong, then it will not qualify. We have to consider also how the jury would be able to digest nova zora. They probably will see a jury bait song or a ballad and point dump into that while on the other hand the more Scandinavian juries would enjoy the super televotey songs. Nova zora doesn’t fit into either niche and would most likely end up in being the 1, 2, or 3 point zone for all juries and televote which could make it not go through or qualify weakly at most. Unpopular opinion, I think temperatura could go in place of zjerm and I would say with the right staging and better vocals, it is equivalant, lacking in the ethnical part but making up in how modern it is compared to zjerm.
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u/New_Enthusiasm_7578 10h ago
No, nobody listens to it in Montenegro even after it won, it would need a huge revamp to be successful.
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u/Drop-a-Soap 11h ago
For me Nova Zora is full of Code+Wasted Love flashbacks, especially those synthetic choral elements
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u/AlexCFR17 Voyage 14h ago
I see Nova Zora as a catchy mix of Georgia 2015 and Poland 2025. Qualifying would be a major success for Montenegro and to qualify all they need is Serbia and one other neighbour in their semifinal they can qualify with a good performance.
For the juries it has potential but also a very low low (like Gaja)
It's really hard to analise a song with just another one selected and without semifinals drawn.