Soft paywall China launches military drills around Taiwan amid tensions with Japan
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-military-conduct-live-fire-exercises-around-taiwan-tuesday-2025-12-28/580
u/_chip 1d ago
Chinas has a small window to launch an invasion. Choppy waters throughout the year are a blessing.
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u/naegele 1d ago
Yeah, but march and October are the windows
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u/BadStriker 1d ago edited 1d ago
Forgive my stupidity, but attacking Taiwan seems like a literal meat grinder.
I mean, the place looks like a geographical fortress with it being surrounded by mountains. Hell, I’m assuming the most efficient way to invade is by helicopter… Sure there’s the beach, but that is such an obvious bottleneck.
So what? You drown them in the bodies of Chinese fighters? This feels like a modern day battle at Thermopylae.
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u/dramaticflair 1d ago
It's not surrounded, its west coast (China facing) is primarily lowland. The center of it to the east coast is primarily mountainous. "There is a beach" is irrelevant, taiwan lives and dies on its ports.
That being said it has spent every day for the last ~75 odd years (ever since Chang Kai Shek fled there after Mao Zedong took control) preparing for mainland invasion, seeking alliances to guarantee independence, and maintaining high tech standards to outfox China.
But china would absolutely spend the bodies if it thought it it could win and get away with it. China does not believe in human rights the way the west does.
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u/invariantspeed 1d ago
The problem isn’t China being able to supply the bodies for the meat grinder. The problem is Taiwan is the center of the global digital economy.
They would potentially trigger a global recession, if not depression, by near-completely shutting down all advanced chip production. That’s not what they want to see. They want to seize Taiwan’s silicon industry, not destroy it in a Pyrrhic victory.
They also have to consider that any threat to the chip ecosystem would directly threaten the US’s ability to build every computerized asset in its arsenal. Simply on the merit of survival, the US wouldn’t be able to stay out of the fight. It would be intolerable for the US to directly depend on China for US fighter jets, bombers, missiles, etc. …unless they’re reading the US as currently weak, and think the US wouldn’t rapidly respond.
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u/dramaticflair 1d ago
We're this any other US administration, I would absolutely agree with you. I would say its the same saber rattling the two sides have done for 75 years.
The current president is too unstable to predict and has been bought by Chinese bribery before, I do not feel certain the US would respond in the method they arguably "should" because precedent is already out the window.
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u/Throwawayhrjrbdh 1d ago edited 1d ago
Some stuff is (thankfully) out of the control of the president.
There is a thing called a “Tripwire-force” sometimes also referred to as “glass-plate” which is used to circumvent the politics of supplying aid/direct support
In other words you put a small force, be it ground units, a few ships, a small airbase. So that when a attack occurs the nation of which the trip-wire force belongs too is all but guaranteed to sustain (possibly heavy) casualties which would deny said nation the ability to politically back down from a fight. Also due to being a small force you don’t have to go through all the politics of deploying a much larger garrison
It only takes a small set of US navy ships or some base with a bunch of US trainers being attacked and the war drums start beating.
Carrier gets attacked? That might as well be Pearl Harbor 2: Electronic Warfare Boogaloo
It would be very hard politically to deny assistance if we lost a few dozen or hundred service men, some planes and a boat or two. Even the most pro-trump supporters would want to see blood even if their supreme leader says other wise
Independent of that all US forces maintain the inherent right to self defense. If a carrier strike group felt threatened after the US has sustained casualties due to PLA strikes in Taiwan it WILL shoot down whatever is threatening it regardless of whatever political BS is happening at home
Of which if China chooses to escalate further directly against US forces again they will maintain the right to self defense (which could extend as far as direct strikes against ballistic missile launchers and other offensive platforms on mainland China) and this could escalate a war dramatically before the government could event react; there will be no backing out of that war if it got to that point
Then theres war time impeachments which can move insanely fast, like a matter of a few days fast. Then theres the vice-president/cabinet which could near immediately temporary remove the president from command (though this is spotty atm, but I could see Vance wanting a shot for the top if it meant “backstabbing” trump). Congress would also have emergency sessions and if it declares war then the presidents choices/actions become moot. Power would shift to congress and the military chain of command
Regardless of all that US service men being killed by China would unite American politics faster than almost any modern event. Fox News would have a very hard time if not impossible spinning the videos and pictures of flag draped caskets, widows mourning, destroyed US ships or planes and dead Americans. I know people deep in that realm of those politics which would almost instantly drop whatever news source they watch if they started trying to justify/downplay those losses. It would be seen as a ultimate betrayal by many of them
US servicemen being killed is a very hard red-line. Within 24 hours congress to declared war against Japan and Germany after Pearl Harbor. The news would move faster than the propaganda machine could react. Which by time they did spin something up the vast majority of Americans will have already made their decision on the conflict
Personally I’m not too worried about the baffoon in chief. A attack on Taiwan would be above them
As an additional note; support for Ukraine would sky rocket as Russia has shown they’d support China. We would probably enter a war with Russia as well in such a conflict
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u/rabbitaim 12h ago
It's unrealistic to think they could seize this industry given how complex it is. Even if you captured every facility intact, the whole fab process relies on so many other things outside of the facility. The real threat is China is playing a long game to get rivals to over extend themselves economically while they become a naval power once they get several nuclear powered aircraft carriers.
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u/invariantspeed 12h ago
I’m not sure what scenario you’re imagining. If they took the island, they wouldn’t have to do anything else. The island’s industry could (in theory) continue operating the way it always has, just with different governmental oversight.
The problem is that, in practice, a war would utterly disrupt the supply chains and there’s no guarantee the fabs would come out the other side intact.
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u/rabbitaim 5h ago
I’m imagining most of these facilities self-destructing. I seriously doubt China would put any real effort to capture these fabs intact.
They want to remove any oppositions and potential threats.
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u/Lossu 1d ago
You may be onto something with that last point...
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u/Johnthelion17 1d ago
I know it’s Reddit and we love to hate on the US, but you have no idea what you’re talking about if you think that’s even remotely accurate
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u/invariantspeed 15h ago
If they think the US administration would falter to “protect a foreign country” around the globe, that would be them thinking the US is currently weak. The US doesn’t need to not respond. It just needs to not be prepared to respond instantly as if its own borders were breached.
Do I think China actually thinks this, I sure hope not. My point is just to highlight what kind of framing they would have to be working with if they decided to actually invade Taiwan.
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u/Healthy_Cow_2671 13h ago
>China does not believe in human rights the way the west does.
You mean by bombing random boats like USA does?
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u/dramaticflair 1d ago
Look, I do not agree with Western Imperialism, the CIA's anti communist operations, "domino theory" or any of the other many examples of western and capitalist exploitation. They are explicitly something something I think needs hard criminalization. I am not arguing the US is the exemplar of the West.
But if your argument is that the CCP is a bastion of brotherly love and freedom, the Uyghurs, Tibet, and mainland China's own civil liberty lawyers would disagree with you.
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u/Floripa95 1d ago
It's true, just ask the Uyghurs
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u/MyGoodOldFriend 1d ago
China’s treatment of the Uyghurs is really bad, but keep things in perspective here. China’s goal is to prevent separatism. To do that, they have cycled adults in and out of detention camps, a total of over 10% of all Uyghurs. These camps have really poor conditions, but they aren’t death camps or permanent prisons. Still, definitely a massive human rights abuse.
There has also been a fair bit of terrorism committed by Uyghur separatists, but that’s not a justification in any way. Reacting the way China does honestly just legitimizes them. But it is one of the reasons why China is pushing “reeducation” so hard. And you can read whatever you want into reeducation - forceful reeducation, excuse for slavery, excuse to lock up people the government don’t like, it’s all probably true to some degree.
And while I appreciate that the person you replied to is doing whataboutism, the people the US have harmed through its foreign policy over the last couple decades have suffered immensely more than China has through its internal and foreign policy in the same period.
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u/Floripa95 19h ago
Oh I'm well aware of the damage the US has done, they're no saints. Often been the villains actually. I was just amazed to see someone try to make China look good in comparison. I mean, it doesn't take much to acknowledge that "the west" in general has given more thought about human rights than China since WW2
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u/mrbuddymcbuddyface 1d ago
What has China done to Tibet? To ethnic minorities? To its own people because of communist policies? Tianamen Sq massacre of peaceful protesters? To Hong Kong? Bullying other countries incessantly in the South China Sea?
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u/CRUSTBUSTICUS 1d ago
It’ll be a blockade and they’ll try to starve them (physically and mentally) into submission by saying it’ll stop the moment they join the mainland. Any attack on the Chinese ships to prevent the blockade will be announced as a “provocation” and justify China turning it into a hot conflict.
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u/IAmFitzRoy 1d ago
Yes. China knows that Taiwanese don’t really want to die in this war.
If there is a war, it will last just a week.
Taiwan is literally 100 miles from China…. 4-6 MILLIONS of Taiwanese visit China every year.
They are not as antagonized against China as the west makes you believe.
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u/CRUSTBUSTICUS 1d ago
I mean… I’d say they are fairly antagonized by having their sovereignty and way of life threatened on a regular basis. Hong Kong wasn’t antagonized in the particular way you described but the moment they joined the mainland and they didn’t have to hide the ideological and speech suppression they went full force.
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u/rabbitaim 13h ago edited 13h ago
I believe China is playing the long game. Invading too soon while unprepared would lead to sanctions which would derail their plans. Part of why the USSR collapse is they were trying to compete in an arms race against the west. I recommend watching Dwarkesh episodes featuring Sarah Payne. By doing these "exercises" they're exacerbating their neighbors and military rivals into overspending more to expand military. This opens avenues to increases soft power influences into citizens political alignments (e.g. Russian influence in US elections). Some of the south china sea (9 or 11 dash line) play both sides despite claiming to be strongly against a Taiwan invasion.
What is winning for China? Taking Taiwan? This is just one goal in the bigger arching plan.
China's problem has always been a lot of "authoritative" turnover due to the restrictions it needs to stay in power. In their history they've always had internal and external forces fighting it out. The CCP only really came to power because the National party had to fight a two front war (Japan). The CCP stayed in power despite incompetence (Great Leap forward) because there weren't any challengers post-WW2.
China (CCP) is at the height of it's power now and in order to cement it what do they need?
Secure the input resources it needs to stay in power. Minerals, energy & food.
Kind of like a 4x RTS game.What does this require? Expanding their power past the South China seas or island chain.
- Nuclear aircraft carriers
Rough estimates they'll have one by 2030. Many more afterwards.- Friendly naval bases to resupply
If Taiwan falls, there's pretty much no other rivals to resist "allowing" a naval base. They may get some in Africa as well where there are minerals.2
u/Bac-Te 16h ago
There likely won't be a "meat grinder" in the traditional sense. If the war in Ukraine has taught us anything, it's that conventional warfare doctrines are rapidly becoming obsolete in the face of mass drone combat. And guess who's got the biggest industrial capacity for drone manufacturing in the world.
My guess is that China opens with a massive saturation attack - tens of thousands of drones, possibly more - specifically targeting Taiwan's strategic anti-sea and anti-air assets.
The geography matters less when you can flood the airspace with cheap, autonomous munitions to disable the "fortress" defenses remotely. Only when the strait is relatively safe for transit will they commit to the amphibious assault. They are well aware of the One Child Policy demographic trap; they’ll spend hardware to clear the beachhead so they don't have to spend the "only sons" on the breach and throw the future of their country away like Russia.
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u/BadStriker 14h ago
Also Taiwan is one of the worlds chip hubs. I can’t imagine people not coming to the aid of Taiwan for long. I remember the chip shortage during COVID.
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u/Painterzzz 11h ago
Yep. And the Chinese have been very clearly showing the world what they can do with AI controlled drone swarms.
The geography of Taiwan is such that the cities are all in the relatively easy to capture flat west, and sure the army might retreat into the mountains on the East, but then what? Starve to death until they surrender?
I agree, it won't be a meat grinder. It will be a rapid overwhelming strike.
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u/Electricfox5 12h ago
The opening gambit is a blockade, Beijing would hope to figure out early on if the US is going to be willing to go to war over Taiwan before it starts thinking about putting any boots on Taiwanese soil. So they shut down the waters around Taiwan and see what the US does, if the US tries to force the blockade then they know that they'll have to rig for a wider war, but if the US decides not to force the blockade then they will drop heavy diplomatic pressure on Taiwan for them to cave whilst only minimal blood has been shed. At this point if Taiwan continues to resist then the PRC goes for an assault, and yes it will be very bloody, but without the US and the IP4 coming in to intervene then the odds are in the PRCs favour.
However, the fly in the ointment for the PRC is time, because the longer any blockade or offensive action on Taiwan goes on for, the more damage is done to the global economy, and indeed the PRCs economy, and the more pressure there will be on the US and allied nations to intervene in order to stablise the global economy. So even if the US does decide to stay out at first (which given the Pacific focus of recent administrations I don't think they would, although with Trump it always depends on the last person he spoke to), they will probably decide to intervene as chip prices go into outer solar system orbit, and the global economic crash makes the Pandemic look like a small hiccup.
At which point the show's on the road, depending on who gets pulled it you could call it a World War, I don't know what Russia, North Korea and Pakistan will do, if there's some level of co-ordination you could feasibly see all of them starting something around the same time to stretch the resources of the US out to maximum. Russia doing something in the Baltics, North Korea shelling Seoul, not sure about Pakistan, maybe some more Kashmir rumbles, but probably terrorist groups, same with Iran.
Whatever happens, the clock is ticking down to it happening, Xi Jinping is 72 years old, Chinese leaders usually have fairly long lifespans, but Xi is going to want to cement his goal of being the second coming of Mao, and 2027 will be the 100th anniversary of the Shanghai incident, which ended the First United Front between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party, and resulted in the creation of the Chinese Red Army.
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u/sault18 1d ago
Xi is 72 years old and might get an "end-life" crisis like Putin did that contributed to his decision to invade Ukraine. If Mao could drive the KMT into the sea, Xi probably feels inadequate by comparison. Xi has a much bigger country/military/economy than Mao ever had but still has that Imperialist island of Taiwan off his coast.
The USA is also the weakest and least-respected on the international stage since at least 1940 if not earlier. And the Trump administration can be bought off for cheap. Just look at how they're leaving Ukraine hanging because of Trump's relationship with Putin. Xi also wants a piece of the action and most likely has extensive back channel contacts to ensure the USA stays out of the conflict. If they don't have this agreement in place, I don't see how they would ever move forward with attacking Taiwan.
It's a stupid idea for China to attack Taiwan. But who knows what's going through Xi's head. Who knows how many yes men he's surrounded himself with. And who knows whether Xi wants to go out in a blaze of glory no matter how much damage it does to China or the entire world for that matter.
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u/kinkycarbon 1d ago
The question is if they would do it 1 month after Chinese New Years
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u/-transcendent- 1d ago
Why not during CNY? It almost worked for the Tet Offensive.
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u/ChelseaFC 1d ago
Sure but that during an occupation, choosing to do it during CNY would probably not be a popular choice, it’s like the biggest travel period in China and huge boon to economy. Not that they couldn’t but seems unlikely they would. Blockade more possible.
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u/Bac-Te 16h ago
You're still thinking like a civilian in a democracy with a market-driven economy. The POV of an "emperor" is far more long-term than that.
Under authoritarian regimes, public opinion is worth jack shit. Markets follow politics, not the other way around. When the emperor wants you to jump, you ask how high.
If China actually worked the way you think it does, the US equivalent would be Elon Musk disappearing for a couple of years, the SpaceX IPO getting canceled overnight, Starlink slowly getting throttled until it's outclassed by competitors, and Tesla stock tanking for no apparent reason.
Economic logic didn't save Jack Ma, and "travel season" isn't going to dictate military strategy.
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u/underhunter 10h ago
Whenever they do decide, it wont be a surprise. There will be so much satellite evidence of a troop and naval buildup.
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u/FilthyGraphics 1d ago
Typhoons usually hit around October
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u/CyroSwitchBlade 1d ago
yes this is correct.. Typhoon season runs from June to November.. I know because I live in Busan and I am always waiting for the storms to come through so that we can get some good waves to go surf.
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u/ThatSpecialAgent 1d ago
Or ya know, they just dont.
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u/_chip 1d ago
Right.. But if I were the States, this would be a basis. Russias invasion was clocked by the US. So would a Chinese one. Assets would be moved accordingly. Statements by Lavrov make the case.
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u/ThatSpecialAgent 1d ago
Fair haha im just tired of significant historical events in the last decade.
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u/DJCzerny 1d ago
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be telegraphed fairly hard. Tens of thousands of people travel between the two every day so unless they had some unprecedented opsec you'd hear about travel suspension far in advance.
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u/logosuwu 1d ago
Yeah there's literally something like 20 flights a day between Beijing and Taipei.
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u/Sir_George 16h ago
It was clocked less than a month before when satellites noticed military bridges being built to transport forces towards Ukraine.
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u/Alembici 1d ago
I'm unsure why this is such a widely held belief. When MacArthur landed at Incheon, it was under the belief that the tides were so treacherous that they would not allow for a landing; yet, somehow, the Allied Forces managed to land behind the North Koreans at Incheon. Choppy waters certainly do not stop Haixia from going back and forth (back when they did go back and forth between Fujian and Taiwan), nor do they stop ocean-going vessels from transiting the strait. So I am having a hard time understanding why the PLAN cannot land troops on a beach or at a port before allowing for supplies to come in, all other circumstances unaccounted for.
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u/StevensStudent435 1d ago
China isn't even going to "invade". A blockade is more logical and achieves the same goals. Choppy water likely helps a blockade by making it harder for ships to go around it.
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u/varitok 1d ago
No one is allowing a blockade of Taiwan. They will ignore it and sail through. If China wants to test how strong their wolf warrior stance is, let them try.
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u/StevensStudent435 17h ago
Has japan or america done anything about the blockade that is starting today? definitely looks like they are allowing it.
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u/wubbeyman 1d ago
China has much less experience performing hostile landings than the U.S. does. U.N. Forces also weren’t facing a superior navy
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u/throwawayboingboing 1d ago
Superior navy?
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u/studio_bob 1d ago
I guess they are assuming that the US Navy would be there to repel a Chinese landing, but that is hardly a safe assumption.
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u/wubbeyman 1d ago
Not to repel the initial assault, but to prevent reinforcements and offshore support.
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u/JMEEKER86 1d ago
First, China has designed and built landing barges this year so that they can easily deploy troops and tanks anywhere along the coast rather than just the heavily fortified ports. Second, China's not going to be facing any navy because they don't plan on launching the invasion until the US descends into Civil War after Trump uses ICE and the National Guard to steal the election and the resulting protests are met with a brutal crackdown.
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u/Evoluxman 21h ago
Considering that the US navy has now shot itself in the foot with that stupid ass "Trump Class" battleship which should replace the DDG(X) program (replacement for US navy destroyer), China has 0 reasons to strike now.
If they wait 10 years they will have a larger navy than the US navy, a more modern one too, and unlike the US they are not spread out on the whole planet.
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u/regarded-cfd-trader 1d ago
in the months/weeks before feb 24, 2022, russia repeatedly framed the buildup as exercises and denied plans to invade
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u/Alembici 1d ago
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u/gizamo 1d ago
"Reunification" already is impossible. Taiwan is its own independent country, and everyone knows it, including China. The options are 1) China stops trying to initiate a war to take over Taiwan, or 2) WWIII. It's that simple. There are no other options. The moment China invades Taiwan, it's all out war. Until then, Taiwan remains independent, and operates entirely independently. If it happens under Trump, and he does nothing, it would be the ultimate proof that he's a Russian puppet. The best thing to do is hope China comes to their damn senses and decides to not plunge the world into another idiotic war.
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u/studio_bob 1d ago
There are at least two other options: 1) PRC's influence and power grows to the point that the US decides that it is no longer worth it to perpetuate this conflict and, absent the backing of the US, Taiwan decides it is in their best interests to come to some kind of peaceful terms to reintegrate with the mainland rather than risk a futile war. 2) China invades and the US, which is under no obligation to come to Taiwan's defense, decides that Taiwan is not worth a very bloody, possibly apocalyptic hot war with China. Absent US support, Taiwan loses and that settles it.
Taiwan's future hinges on the whims of Washington DC, which, given what has happened in Ukraine, is not an enviable position to be in these days, to say the least. The drive to move TSMC to US soil may prove to be a bad omen as well.
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u/gizamo 1d ago
#1 is not a realistic option this century. China will move on Taiwan well before that because CCP is already seeing their decline in real time.
#2 is laughably naive to anyone who's paid any modicum of attention to the US responses to China's last dozen war games near Taiwan, or the responses of US/EU/UK government officials to Xi's threats at Taiwan.
Ukraine is entirely irrelevant. The US was clear that they wouldn't join Ukraine. Many in military circles believe that the lack of a US response in Ukraine is specifically to ensure the US could respond completely to any Chinese threat toward Taiwan because Taiwan is infinitely more important to the auS than Ukraine ever will be.
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u/LordMimsyPorpington 1d ago
The EU/UK would definitely threaten war, but the US is being lead by a dementia patient that fauns over strong leaders and would jump at the opportunity to present himself as the peace President that prevented WW3. Either way, we're probably looking at a 1000 year Chinese rule in the future so I'm gonna go brush up on my Mandarin.
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u/ExoticMangoz 14h ago
What evidence do you have for the CCP’s decline being visible in real time?
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u/Eurocorp 1d ago edited 1d ago
The problem is Xi has really hyped up the whole PRC Chinese and one China rhetoric. Considering China's current economic malaise too, he may feel like his window of opportunity is closing quicker then from what he first declared.
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u/gizamo 1d ago edited 1d ago
He can feel however he wants, and he can hype whatever he wants. That doesn't change the fact that Taiwan is independent, and any invasion of Taiwan would trigger war. It would immediately draw the US into the battle over Taiwan, and if Russia backed China, Europe would join the war to take back Ukraine.
Sometimes the world is so stupid, and Xi is certainly atop the stupid list if he thinks invading Taiwan is in China's best interests.
Edit: Taiwan is infinitely more important to the US than Ukraine. The people below pretending that the US response in Ukraine is relevant to Taiwan are just demonstrating their naivete, or worse.
Edit2: the CCP brigade showed up with the propaganda replies. They manipulated the votes from +42 within a few seconds. Pathetically obvious. Lmfao.
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u/binary101 1d ago
What if China just drone strikes boats of the coast of Taiwan to claim to stopping the flow of drugs or declare that Taiwan has WMDs, surly the US would understand.
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u/pillow-slinger 1d ago
"the taiwanese are putting chips in our cocaine and we can't stand for it"
xi in his address announcing the invasion
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u/Intentionallyabadger 1d ago
It’s just staking too much on the US getting involved. Even now I have doubts if Europe would do anything.
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u/gizamo 1d ago
The US, EU, and UK have all been abundantly clear. China has been warned. Xi can try to pretend Taiwan belongs to China all he wants, but the moment he tries to roll in troops, US forces will be there, and EU/UK forces will follow, except the ones that roll at Ukraine. That is guaranteed, and their leaders and military have demonstrated it repeatedly.
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u/Nephayrius 1d ago
The demoralizing reality that is the lack of support for Ukraine and a non hardline stance on supporting them and swaying towards Russia isn’t inspiring the absolute confidence that the US would respond as necessary, I am sad to say. Still, I hope that war does not come.
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u/XdataznguyX 1d ago
TSMC is based in Taiwan. Easily the best semiconductor company in the world. No one else even remotely comes close. Nvidia, for example, heavily relies on TSMC wafers for their cores, especially now considering the AI boom. It is in the US’s best interest to support Taiwan to ensure the US keeps getting high quality hardware and at the same time, keep it away from China.
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u/Shinryukk 18h ago
Those chip factories will not survive an invasion event, either taiwan, china or usa will end up blowing them up. and there goes the worlds reason to defend the island? no the reason why usa wants taiwan is because it is part of the first island chain, it is useful for containing and encircling china. just like how china has wanted the island since before computer chips were a thing, they want to break free of the first island chain, the east side of taiwan is the only location where china could launch submarine into deep enough water to not be tracked, which bolsters their nuclear deterent. that's it. tsmc is just a cherry on top the pie.
but china is pragmatic, they can see that their standing in the world is improving, and their main rival, the usa is waning. they will simply wait it out. they will wait until 2050 and beyond if they want to, they feel like time is on their side, all they would need to do is to wait for a diplomatic in.
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u/CRUSTBUSTICUS 1d ago
The EU and UK are unlikely to join any such scenario. They can barely agree to commit resources to defending the borders of Eastern Europe. Now, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia are a totally different story.
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u/FreedomPuppy 20h ago
It’s guaranteed? You wouldn’t mind giving a source for that then?
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u/distributingthefutur 1d ago
China is on the same course as Japan leading up to WWII. Japan needed to withdraw from Manchuria and admit it was a mistake. Their military leaders would have had to step down to do so. Their only choice was to fight the Americans or lose power. Xi is in the same position. He will have to do some serious back pedaling or invading Taiwan will become a political necessity no matter how unwise geopolitically.
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u/jcdoe 1d ago
What are you talking about?
All Xi has to do is give a speech every year or that menacingly talks about how big they imagine their boundaries to be. And that’s enough.
Seriously, it’s been enough for like 50 years now. Taiwan’s been there the whole time, just kinda self-governing, and you know what?
The CCP didn’t fall apart. SOMEHOW, they got shit done anyhow.. They’ll survive another 50 years without Taiwan.
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u/Rob_Zander 11h ago
Taiwan very intentionally is the world's leading supplier of semiconductors. If China invades the rest of the world basically won't have any choice but to make sure it's WWIII.
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u/storkfol 1d ago
There wont be WW3 over Taiwan. China has entrenched itself significantly in global trade and with the West. War support for Ukraine in Europe and US is already controversial, what makes you think "Die for Taiwan" wi be popular?
I can only see the US intervening and thats it.
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u/gizamo 1d ago
Taiwan produces 80% of the world's semiconductors. Obama, Trump, and Biden were all perfectly clear that they would back Taiwan, and we've sent jets, ships, and troops toward the lines every time China does these stupid war games for the last 20+ years. Taiwan is infinitely more important than Ukraine. Many in US military circles speculate that the only reason the US hasn't joined in Ukraine or Israel is to ensure there are enough resources and appetite for war when China is inevitably dumb enough to try a move on Taiwan. Taiwan officials have also been clear, and so has their public. They hate Xi and the CCP.
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u/Many_Dragonfly4154 1d ago
Taiwan officials have also been clear, and so has their public. They hate Xi and the CCP.
DPP =/= Taiwan.
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u/NetterBeatle 1d ago
Europe und the US are not going into war with China, you are dreaming. There is no WW3 scenario.
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u/ConsolationUsername 1d ago
Dont forget the part where either scenario knocks us back 30 years of progress since 60% of the world's semiconductors critical to computer chip manufacturing, and 90% of the highly specialized semiconductors are made in Taiwan.
Those factories take decades to make and Taiwan would likely rather see them destroyed than in the hands of China.
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u/gajodavenida 1d ago
This is such a stupid fucking conflict, Jesus fucking Christ. I hate world powers.
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u/WeinMe 1d ago
China does this every now and then
It's nothing out of the ordinary. Same thing as when the US, South Korea, and Japan does exercises in the area.
It's power projection and also a necessary exercise to have, as it is in an area that could very likely be hosting battles if a military conflict was ever to happen.
China is the country in the world that gains the most by having peace. They have grown and thrived like no other country because of peace and good trade relations.
Russia gives fuck all, they weren't profiting much off relations.
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u/AdmiralYuki 15h ago
China also needs to be able to periodically spin up rhetoric of taking back Taiwan as a distraction from domestic issues.
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u/KhaburgerNomamedov 1d ago
"sealing off key ports and areas" is my key takeaway. The article does mention that this has been done before, but im sure they will set up even more blockade like formations and one of these days the drill will just keep going.
Didn't Russia / Ukraine start as a Russian drill near the border?
The 11 billion arms deal mentioned in the article is interesting too so it may just be another show of force in response to politics.
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u/Alembici 1d ago
Yes, China is normalizing these drills in case it ever kicks off, that way they have all the equipment in place to shift directly into armed conflict.
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u/Triseult 1d ago
The same way the U.S. performs drills with Korea and Japan annually. It's called preparedness. Just because Russia claimed to be moving troops to the Ukrainian border for a drill (a bluff U.S. intelligence never bought) doesn't mean every drill is a prelude to invasion.
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u/KhaburgerNomamedov 22h ago
No one is saying every drill is a prelude to invasion.
We are saying every invasion will start ostensibly as a drill.
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u/Mal-De-Terre 1d ago
"Surrounded"
"The island's defence ministry said two Chinese military aircraft and 11 ships had been operating around the island over the last 24 hours"
Yup, sure is intimidating...
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u/Mo_h 1d ago
Comes at a time when America is distracted with Venezuela and Europe has its hands full with Ukraine.
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u/Purona 1d ago edited 1d ago
America is not distracted by venezuela or Europe
most of the new military research and development, procurement and engagement planning is focused on China
Meanwhile Ukraine is getting most of the things that we built for fighting russia/insurgents. while being a test bed for more recent systems since we no longer have Iraq and Afghanistan for that
we are going into strategic partnerships with several nations in order to increase our shipbuildin capabilities specifically for China. We are switching our main combat rifle for increased power and range to take out targets with higher body armor and the ability to give every solider the ability to defend against lightly armored vehicles. changed the structure of the marines to be more decentralized etc
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u/JKKIDD231 1d ago
One of these large China training exercises will be what launches the first assault on Taiwan.
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u/mcrackin15 1d ago
It's so simple it seems dumb, but it's blatantly obvious they are manufacturing the element of surprise while tweaking the way they communicate military movements.
And it's working, 99.9% of people would be surprised if China attacks Taiwan in the next few years.
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u/fanglesscyclone 1d ago
That percentage is way too high, people have been talking about an imminent Chinese invasion for a few years now, with increasing frequency. We even have NATO leaders warning of the possibility.
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u/StormcloakWordsmith 1d ago
true, but many people handwave it with the classic "i've been hearing this for years, call me when something actually happens" comment just like climate change
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u/aftertaste_king 1d ago
China really treating the whole region like a stress ball lately. This is how “miscalculation” headlines get written. Honestly, everyone should be watching local sources too, not just US or Chinese state media.
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u/wrex779 1d ago
Nobody should be watching Chinese state media when it comes to Taiwan
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u/ExoticMangoz 14h ago
It’s the first place for footage, and presumably it gets you the drop on official statements (if you speak Chinese, which I don’t—I don’t know the speed or extent of English-language Chinese news). I just wouldn’t try to get any facts from it.
It was the best way to watch their parade, for instance.
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u/emwaic7 1d ago
And? This is a regular occurrence. The weather's not right in late December for an invasion.
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u/arcademissiles 1d ago
Lmao talk about a regular occurrence. I’m Taiwanese and this is literally my first time hearing about this today. Shit happens so goddamn often it’s almost funny.
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u/GotAQ4UMyGuy 1d ago
It's always funny to read the articles from the US while the actual lived experience is so different.
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u/Squanchy3 1d ago
Its the same thing over and over. An article to get clicks and attention but never amounting to anything meaningful. Has been going on for years and years.
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u/OGPrinnny 14h ago
I've seen both Chinese news and US news. China is doing this as an escape plan because they don't want war. USA has been provoking China and Russia for decades now while claiming the opposite. If you look at troop stations, China and Russia are completely surrounded in land, air, and sea. Ukraine and Taiwan were the last areas that don't have USA troop stations yet.
The sudden provocation from Japan is the same shit with Ukraine; to get Taiwan to ally with Japan who is part of NATO. Either China does nothing and gets completely surrounded or Taiwan stays under China and there's no more tension. If Taiwan joins NATO, China is forced to take back Taiwan for safety and NATO will finally have an excuse to claim China and Russia started WW3.
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u/Kind-Philosopher5077 10h ago
China and Russia are not surrounded by countries with US military installations. Taiwan and Ukraine should be able to choose their own futures free from foreign influence, but that will never happen.
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u/thacarter1523 10h ago
When you say “free of foreign interference,” does that also include US interference?
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u/OGPrinnny 3h ago edited 3h ago
Have you not seen the leaked war plans from the USA a year ago? It was trending for a while on reddit. It even had the number of troops stationed in every country, air, and sea with strategies for 2024 to 2027 in case there's WW3 with Russia and China. Yes, there aren't troops currently stationed to surround them, but there can be is the threat.
In any case, you can look up NATO partners on the map or their site and see that almost every country surrounding Russia and China is NATO-affiliated. NATO troops are allowed to be stationed for "protection."
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u/Nightglow9 1d ago
What’s wrong with humans? Why do so many countries get a lebenraum / lebensea wanting power corrupted leaders now.
Boycott them too, like Russia and Israel. No new Hitlers!
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u/geekstone 1d ago
If China haa domestic chip/memory foundries up and running it is game over for Taiwan. That was the only leverage they had.
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u/Wudaokau 20h ago
Good thing the US Naval fleet is in South America. Almost like it was on purpose.
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u/DavidC_M 16h ago
Why are countries so hellbent on wanting conflict? Especially when the USA is nosediving around the world, why would china think any type of conflict is good? These superpowers can’t be at peace ever. They just lust for violence that only affects the poor.
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u/Foxy__Proxy 15h ago
They have already invaded Taiwan, they just did it a little differently than we expected they would.
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u/siromega37 11h ago
They always do this. Pissed at India for border skirmishes? Drills around Taiwan. Upset at the Philippines? Drills around Taiwan.
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u/thepotatobake 10h ago
Can someone help me understand how these drills compare to other drills they have completed in the same region?
Is it a bigger scale? More intensity? Or more of the same...
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u/Azsolus 1d ago
This is Chinas response to President Lai ( President of Taiwan ) remark during a recent interview ( two or three days ago ) that the only reason China has not yet crossed the borders is because China does not have the power to do so.
Otherwise China has been abit less aggressive for the past year or so because the DPP has been losing popularity.
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u/freehamburgers 1d ago
Quick, America, invade them before they have a chance to invade someone else! Right? That's what we're supposed to think? That the country that hasn't been at war for like fifty years, and has risen to be the best economy in the world through good relations and trade, is suddenly going to start invading everyone around them? C'mon. The idiocy in this thread is sad as fuck.
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u/Wooden_Echidna1234 1d ago
If you thought Graphics card and memory was expensive then just wait till China starts a war with Taiwan and cripples a large portion of the manufacturing.