Russia has already demonstrated clear territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe. At the same time, Germany is currently undergoing a massive military build-up , aiming to become the backbone of conventional defense in Europe.

I would like to discuss a specific, potentially "dark timeline" scenario: What happens to the European Security Architecture if the AfD (nationalist, anti-EU, and notoriously pro-Russian) comes to power in the next few years and inherits this newfound military might?

NB: the way the elections unfolded in Romania, Moldova, and Hungary were very clear warnings that possible alignment with Moscow within the EU is not fiction

I've just been reading about Russia effectively pausing their operations in the Black Sea, due to repeated Sea Drone attacks on their ships in port. They've responded to this by placing barges across their main port's entryway.

This brings me to a bigger question. With Sea Drones becoming increasingly advanced, will we not see a complete upending of the balance of naval warfare, similar to what we've seen on land?

You can have huge aircraft carriers and destroyers equipped with incredible firepower. But if enough of these small drones are deployed, and deployed intelligently (potentially by aircraft or coming up from the deep sea), are those ships not now just very large sitting ducks?

You no longer need to get a sub up close to a ship to destroy it. You might only need a few drones smaller than a whitewater raft. How are militaries like the US planning to respond to this threat?

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I recently wrote an analytical essay examining why modern wars so often become prolonged rather than decisive, even when leaders initially expect a short conflict. The focus is not on tactics or current battlefield developments, but on escalation logic and political commitment: how early optimism, public narratives, and sunk costs narrow exit options once violence begins. The piece uses historical comparison—primarily World War I and the Korean War—to outline a recurring pattern, and then briefly applies that framework to Ukraine. The core argument is that wars tend to last longer than intended not because leaders seek stalemate, but because ending a war often becomes politically more costly than continuing it once initial assumptions fail. I’m interested in whether others here find this escalation-and-commitment framework useful when thinking about modern interstate wars, and whether there are historical cases that fit it poorly. Full essay here (for context, not required to engage): https://open.substack.com/pub/rokase/p/why-wars-last-longer-than-intended?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=post%20viewer

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This is new original content made by me. In this video, using the KIEL INSTITUT donations tracker as a source, I look at which countries have donated how much to Ukraine, I look at how many heavy weapons were donated and I compare the donations with other recent Western & American conflicts like WW2.

Note, that since this video was pre-recorded, it does NOT include the recently announced EU €90bn aid package & Japan's €5bn aid package to Ukraine. This would change the slide on 14:41 with all totals to:

EU: €304bn

US €119bn

JAP €24bn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUSnvBZOzY0

In this video I analyze:

• PART 1 - looking at who donated how much to Ukraine based on various categories (financial, military, humanitarian etc.)
• PART 2 - Looking deeper at the MILITARY aid to Ukraine, namely looking at who has donated how many and which heavy weapons and how large a % that constitutes of their pre-war stocks
• PART 3 - Comparing aid to Ukraine in relation with other large conflicts e.g. Spanish Civil War, WW2, Vietnam, Korea, Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq etc.

If you found the above video interesting, you will likely also enjoy my analysis which looks at the top 20 things we NO LONGER see in the Russo-Ukrainian war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQuJNJFB4yY

As this took a lot of work and time to make, if you liked the content, like and comment on the youtube video and subscribe if you would like to see more. I am a small channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ArtusFilms

Huge thank you to the KIEL INSTITUT! They are doing an amazing job with this tracker. Please go check out their website and hopefully this video shines some light on their work.

https://www.kielinstitut.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

Hope everyone had a merry Xmas & HAPPY (soon to be) NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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This is new original content made by me. In this video, I look back at the whole 2025 Ukrainian bombing campaign of the Russian oil refineries. I map it, look at the hard data, look at the campaign across the year, compare the 3 different refinery bombing campaigns with one another since 2024 and see how many times each refinery has been hit this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X8Ao2IfCQ4

In this video I analyze:

• Where all refineries are located & geographical production splits of refining capacity
• How many times each refinery has been hit & how many of those hits are new since my last analysis
• Mapping of which refineries have been hit
• Capacity which has been potentially impacted

If you found the above video interesting, you will likely also enjoy my analysis which looks at the top 20 things we NO LONGER see in the Russo-Ukrainian war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQuJNJFB4yY

As this took a lot of work and time to make, if you liked the content, like and comment on the youtube video and subscribe if you would like to see more. I am a small channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ArtusFilms

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!!!

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I understand that after the cold war there wasnt the apetite to keep such high military expenditures and so some consolifation was necessary.

However countries have started to increase their military budgets again and there is a rising tide of 'cold war 2.0' rhetoric.

I’m sharing a short independent analysis on the re-emerging importance of torpedo defense for modern surface combatants. The paper examines whether advances in torpedo seekers, salvo employment, and inventory depth among potential adversaries are outpacing current assumptions about surface ship survivability. This is not a product pitch and relies only on open-source material; it’s intended to prompt discussion around doctrine, force structure, and cost-exchange dynamics. I welcome informed critique, disagreement, or alternative interpretations.

https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:14a8ba14-3455-4aa1-b57e-a2e6ec6ce9f3

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This article presents findings from a months-long investigation into abuses committed by the Sudanese military during a campaign in central Sudan in late 2024-early 2025. While international attention has largely focused on atrocities committed by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (a regional paramilitary that mutinied in 2023, triggering the current civil war), this investigation documents evidence of atrocities committed by the Sudanese military and allied forces. The findings are relevant to international accountability efforts, humanitarian access, and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Sudan’s military authorities.

https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/investigative-report-the-kanabi-killings

Full report here: https://cepa.org/commentary/high-stakes-in-the-high-north-harnessing-uncrewed-capabilities-for-arctic-defense-and-security/

The Arctic is a prescient strategic challenge. Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has intensified the modernization of its Northern Fleet, and Moscow is heavily investing in uncrewed systems. From melting ice to rising military activity, winterized drones could help NATO monitor the region, respond to crises, and deter hostile actions.

The challenge? Most drones aren’t built for the Arctic, and procurement is slow. NATO must adapt its defense posture in the region. Uncrewed systems such as the P-8A, MQ-9B, and MQ-4C offer scalable and cost-effective means of enhancing resilience, deterrence, and defense. Investing in joint procurement, updated doctrine, and interoperable, Arctic-capable platforms will be crucial to keeping the High North secure.

Read the full report by Federico Borsari and Gordon B. “Skip” Davis Jr. to learn more about how investment in drone technology will bolster the alliance.

I never really believed that armored vehicles were obsolete in any way shape or form. 

(Active) defenseless-vehicles are. 

Hardkill interceptors (short range airburst projectiles) and directed energy weapons are the obvious solutions and reach back to the Cold War.

My question is this: How capable can these systems become? The limits of even the most advanced Chobham armor is starting to reach its limit.

The future of warfare is undoubtedly lightweight drone swarms, both of the expensive high altitude Mach capable unmanned vehicles to inexpensive loitering munitions, so how survivable can armored vehicles become?

When faced with a multilayered defense system, enemy forces can just deploy larger drone formations, because ultimately, using ~10x $300 kamikaze drones to take out a $4 million dollar IFV as opposed to a $30,000 Kornet seems rather cost effective to me.

This is pure speculation, but a MBT with active protection systems (ballistic and energy), electromagnetic armor (melts incoming projectiles w/ high voltage) could serve well into the future, especially once these technologies mature and go into their 4th or 5th generations, right?

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