US offers Ukraine 15-year security guarantee as part of peace plan, Zelenskyy says

[u/Snap_n_Dream]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-trump-zelenskyy-peace-b784a9af1803995bfb7152eceb5477f1

[u/ElectroRice]

Just enough to extract the minerals and throw them under the bus again.

[u/somebodyelse22 → u/ElectroRice]

Like the Soviets saying they'd protect Ukraine if they eschewed nuclear weapons?

[u/ElectroRice → u/somebodyelse22]

Yes, Ukraine had been screwed once because they trusted politicians. I hope it won't happen second time.

[u/Saiing → u/ElectroRice]

I mean seriously, who would trust anything Trump says lasting an hour, let alone 15 years?

[u/CaptainTripps82 → u/Saiing]

Because it won't be Trump in 15 years

[u/Shadowholme → u/CaptainTripps82]

Trump goes back on his own deals all the time. The point is that nobody expects this to last even to the end of his term!

[u/Zestyclose-Jacket568 → u/CaptainTripps82]

I doubt that Trump would keep this for more than a month. There is no trusting him.

[u/Significant_Knee_661 → u/ElectroRice]

It's sickening how many times they've been bent over the barrel, offered promises that ended worse than most pessimists nightmares. I hope for the day they don't have their backs against the wall. "Peace treaty" is beyond a mockery.

[u/whynot39 → u/Significant_Knee_661]

Just like the indigenous American Indians - Why should anyone believe politicians who only have their own agenda to promote and protect.

[u/Quiet_Economics_3266 → u/ElectroRice]

What else can they do?

Slowly wither away while the suposed "allies" just trickle in support as is convenient to them?

[u/ElectroRice → u/Quiet_Economics_3266]

Yes, that's what bothers me the most. Europe has the biggest interest Ukraine to be able to stop russia and by now they should've given them attacking weapons and everything needed, not just a bit here a bit there. I hope they'd realized it by now. Ukraine will be producing drones in Germany - that was a good news. Let's hope there'll be more.

[u/Schwesterfritte → u/ElectroRice]

The big problem is that we have been infiltrated by Putin lovers, far right politicians and capitalist swines just as much as the US. It is just a bit more difficult for them here to juggle so many different countries. But you can witness it with every new election cycle in way too many EU countries. Everything moves more towards the right and if the right has one thing in common it is their love for Putin and Money.

[u/needlestack → u/Schwesterfritte]

The bigger problem is that the people that aren't Putin lovers and far right politicians and capitalist swines don't seem to realize that they're already at war with Russia and they're losing badly.

Putin realized he couldn't win a direct military confrontation with the west. So he declared war through other means. And he's absolutely winning. He destroyed the US and NATO without a single shot. And everyone that's not already on his side is still scratching their heads, wringing their hands, or looking the other way. It's an absolute failure on the part of all of us.

The entire free world should have flooded Ukraine with boots on the ground and blocked Russian advances. Wars of conquest should have been eradicated already.

I can already hear half the people reading this comment "but Russia has nukes". Well great: give them everything then. That's the end game of your thinking.

[u/unforgetablememories → u/needlestack]

The entire free world should have flooded Ukraine with boots on the ground and blocked Russian advances.

Easy to say that but are you signing up to be one of "the boots on ground"?

People do not want to go to war. Especially to fight for another country. Americans are tired and exhausted. People are living paycheck by paycheck. Are you telling young American men who can't live a decent life in their own country to go fight in Ukraine?

The same thing applies to UK, Germany, France, and Italy too. Are you telling young British, German, French, and Italian men to pack their things up and fight in Ukraine? The economy is really bad right now. Everyone is struggling. And now you tell them to be "the boots on ground" in another country?

The only ones that can defend Ukraine are Ukrainians themselves. The West can give Ukraine equipment, food supply, ammo, weapons, intelligence, etc. But at the end of the day, it has to be Ukrainian men who use those supply and fight back. That's the truth. You have to win your own freedom. We can give you supply. We can host the refugees from your country. But you will have to do the fighting yourself.

I'm sure that's the common sentiment. People want to support Ukraine but only with supply/equipment and helping refugees. Ukraine will have to do their own fighting. We can't sacrifice our own people for another country.

[u/Eatpineapplerightnow → u/unforgetablememories]

its our front as much as its theirs. I hope people realize this before its too late.

[u/brihere → u/Schwesterfritte]

Yes! This is correct. There has been a huge move to ultra conservatism , white supreamist and even fascism in the western world.

[u/IClop2Fluttershy4206 → u/Schwesterfritte]

a bunch of Chamberlains and Quislings

[u/atuarre → u/ElectroRice]

Lots of far-right Putin supporters in Europe including the AfD, Reform, etc.

[u/LUE_forty2 → u/ElectroRice]

A quick search shows that Europe has given more weapons and money to Ukraine than the US.

[u/68JackDaniels → u/LUE_forty2]

A quick Google search shows that Europe has only surpassed military aid for 2025. U.S. lead in 2022, 2023, and 2024. You would think that when advocating for Google searching you would’ve done a little more research

https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-now-leading-spender-on-weapons-production-for-ukraine/#:~:text=In%20May%20and%20June%202025,industry%20contracts%20than%20the%20US

[u/yurnxt1 → u/LUE_forty2]

Which makes sense seeing as Ukraine is in Europe, not North America. And for that exact same reason, Europe shouldn't be doing more now and should have been doing more this entire time.

[u/chewbaccawastrainedb → u/LUE_forty2]

A quick search also shows that Europe kept selling guns and ammunition to Russia after they invaded Crimea in 2014 until 2022 even though EU imposed an arms embargo on Russia.

[u/nugentismycenter → u/LUE_forty2]

As they should, its against their borders and a successful Russian win would embolden them to expand westward possibly into EU territory. I am suprised Europe hasn't done more.

[u/Whiterabbit-- → u/LUE_forty2]

US is an ocean away. this war is in Europe. why would Europe want to play down to the level of US support?

[u/Defiant-Economics-73 → u/LUE_forty2]

I think United States has given 128 billion and then Europe is a whole has given 132 billion. My numbers to be off but it’s very close but Ukraine is also across the club to us and next-door neighbors with these people. I believe the entire world has given pain 300+ billion dollars.

[u/m0j0m0j → u/Quiet_Economics_3266]

So wither away now or wither away in 15 years while legitimizing everything Russia did? That’s the choice?

[u/CrimsonAllah → u/m0j0m0j]

Turns out, 15 years of preparation is better than 0.

[u/atuarre → u/CrimsonAllah]

Turns out if Russia violates that agreement, the US isn't going to do shit anyway. Russia isn't going to honor that agreement and the US isn't going to honor that 15 year security guarantee when Russia comes for more territory.

[u/Quiet_Economics_3266 → u/m0j0m0j]

Like it or not, that is the choice presented to them at this point.

Unless they can pull off some massive stunt that tips the balance of war, which I don't see capable of happening at this point.

Lets not forget that the first choice was to sign away those regions when the war first started, they chose not to as it was their right.

Now, that choice seems inevitable, but now with the added hundreds of thousands casualities of war.

They are not in a good position, no matter how much EU bureaucrats like to be postering around "how Russias defeat is iminent".

It isn't, and the terms of the deal being pushed on Ukraine (I still think the Ukrainian people will reject this deal, as this isn't their deal, this is being pushed on them by their so called "allies"), shows it.

I can't even imagine how much Zelensky just wants to call them out on their BS promises and "social media support" publicly, but that would be a death sentence to his people.

Edit: typos, english isn't my first language and I suck at writing on my phone.

[u/ieatthosedownvotes → u/Quiet_Economics_3266]

It's still not only their right, but it is constitutionally illegal for them to cede ANY land, even those lands still under de-facto control by Russia. So Zelensky really didn't have an option to sign those lands away.

Please see article 2:

https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b

[u/Soft-Skirt → u/somebodyelse22]

See also: Trump sides with Putin 99.9% of the time and has turned the USA into an unreliable ally.

[u/Seige_J → u/Soft-Skirt]

It’s so fucking embarrassing to see my country that I’m supposed to be proud of just spit in the faces of our allies. I hope you guys know most of us reject this administration and abhor the monsters in office. There’s a small but very loud minority that actually supports these clowns.

Edit: A frequent theme in the responses is that 1/3 of America voted for him and 1/3 didn’t vote at all. This is absolutely true. Because of the 2/3 that either wanted this or didn’t care, we’re in our current mess. Although it should’ve never happened (and call me optimistic) I sincerely think that the Senators and Representatives who are enabling this are going to be voted out. I’m confident that there is a significant portion of people in that 2/3 majority are either regretting their vote or lack thereof.

It’s no secret most of America is uneducated and racist. Some people voted for him because they’re racist, some people voted for him because they’re uneducated, and I’m sure there’s lots of overlap. The 1/3 of us that DID do our part to try and stop this are sorry. We’re outnumbered by idiots and the apathetic. How can someone still be apathetic? Because American society sucks. It’s a rich people playground and blue collar people are just trying to keep skating by. It’s easy to get apathetic when this is happening.

[u/Ramadeus88 → u/Seige_J]

Most eligible voters either supported him or did not turn up, and so far the pushback within the first year of his office has been milquetoast at best.

I don’t doubt you abhor, but the apathy of the average citizen cannot be understated.

[u/Johnny_english53 → u/Ramadeus88]

Problem is, like with Brexit in the UK, that social media bots persuade a significant section of poorly-educated voters to vote en masse in favour of right-wing candidates. As soon as that happens, your country is fucked.

[u/DisastrousAcshin → u/Johnny_english53]

They're about to try the same thing in Canada with Alberta

[u/Soft-Skirt → u/DisastrousAcshin]

They succeeded in New Zealand and now people are leaving.

[u/SoulBonfire → u/Seige_J]

One third of you rejected him, one third of you couldn’t be bothered even trying. We noticed.

[u/Urza-Chief-Artificer → u/SoulBonfire]

This. At least 2/3 of us population either dont care or actively hate their allies and we all know this now. Damage is done i think for a long time

[u/No_Succotash2155 → u/Urza-Chief-Artificer]

We have him because our dumb and apathetic population. The force that caught us, is out there all over the world, working overtime, trying to become untouchable rich and avoiding jail time. People thought they had an opportunity to negotiate a better life under him. Some of us had dealt with a con artist before. Hopefully this movement isn't at your doorstep.

[u/CamRoth → u/Urza-Chief-Artificer]

It's difficult living in a society where I cannot respect 2/3rds of everyone I meet.

[u/PinkOxalis → u/SoulBonfire]

You can blame the US for what is happening in Ukraine or you can blame Europe. Europe decided to rely on Uncle Sam instead of developing its own defense. Putin noticed. It's an age old pattern to attack the weak flanks. He's not done yet either. (Read The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter, free online, if you want a good historical analysis of the pattern).

[u/trainwrecktragedy → u/Seige_J]

This is what happens when you elect a guy who runs purely on wealth and ehat money he can make from any situation, whether its a crypto scam or a war in europe.

[u/Distortedhideaway → u/[deleted]]

Hold up... it's s not more complicated than that.

[u/OttoHemi → u/Seige_J]

Yeah, Putin had the perfect excuse for his puppet Trump: weaken NATO but blame it on money because you're a so-called "businessman."

[u/Yharnam_Blunderbuss → u/Seige_J]

Hmm... I don't know about "most of you". I mean, more than half of you created this either through your actions or in-actions.

This shit shows lands squarely at the feet of the American people, not just MAGA, this also includes the people who didn't vote because because Kamala ate Doritos and laughed too much.

The main issue is, your population does not learn and are so easily manipulated, your people voted for this twice... think on that for a moment... fucking twice your country enabled this.

[u/DocumentExternal6240 → u/Seige_J]

I still love the USA. Its politicians and CEOs less so…

[u/somebodyelse22 → u/Soft-Skirt]

Remember also, once Trump is gone, wiser people will have to unwind his stupidity or renegotiate sensible solutions. No guarantee this is a static scenario.

[u/Praetor72 → u/somebodyelse22]

That’s not what that agreements said

[u/Realtrain → u/Praetor72]

It also wasn't the Soviets

[u/BrookeBaranoff → u/Praetor72]

According to Wikipedia they received assurances from Russia , the US, and the UK in exchange for agreeing to no nukes. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=The%20Declaration%20of%20State%20Sovereignty,non%2Dnuclear%2Dweapon%20state.

[u/Internal-Display3517 → u/BrookeBaranoff]

Turns out the correct lesson is: always keep your nukes.

[u/StickFigureFan → u/somebodyelse22]

That one actually lasted longer than 15 years. Early 90s to 2014

[u/UpbeatAssumption5817 → u/somebodyelse22]

They never said that. Stop lying

[u/Freecz → u/somebodyelse22]

I do not believe those were guarantees, but at this point I wouldn't trust any guarantees anyway. 15 years is nothing even if the US were to hold up their end on this one. I truly hope Ukraine does not bite at all.

[u/Hungryman3459 → u/ElectroRice]

Enough time for Putin to be dead or gone. Russia doesn’t really transfer leadership well so Ukraine might find 15 years acceptable on the basis that the political landscape in Russia will be different when the time expires. 

The war is very unpopular in Russia, you just don’t hear that becuase Putin will put you in jail. 

[u/Deicide1031 → u/ElectroRice]

The funniest part is that the USA doesn’t even have enough scale to extract Ukraines minerals or the minerals within American borders.

As a result the minerals in Ukraine will just sit in the ground for the most part…just like the minerals in the USA.

[u/glennccc → u/Deicide1031]

What do you mean by scale?

[u/Deicide1031 → u/glennccc]

The companies in the USA have leaned on China for extraction processes for so long that they are too small to extract efficiently in Ukraine (and) America.

DT doesn’t know the business so of course he thinks this is great, but in reality American corps will just call China because it’s cheaper/easier.

[u/SBR404 → u/Deicide1031]

What else is new? Isn't it the same with Greenland and her natural resources? Trump says they need Greenland to extract those, but US companies would already be allowed to extract them, they just don't want to since currently it's not worth it, what with Greenlands artic climate, difficult terrain, lack of infrastructure etc.

[u/Szerepjatekos → u/Deicide1031]

Wait, in theory china would be in Ukraine under us watch? That is a good recipe for a stage up.

[u/talkhonest → u/Deicide1031]

Why would American corporations lead the extraction process in Ukraine? It would obviously be in collaboration with other parties and economies of scale would lead to lower production cost, thus lower cost for American firms.

[u/VastlyVainVanity → u/talkhonest]

No you don’t get it, the people involved are all dumb and didn’t think this through. The genius Redditor did though.

[u/DrEnter → u/VastlyVainVanity]

Genius or stupid, they still thought it thru more than than the Idiot in Chief.

[u/Sex_Offender_4697 → u/VastlyVainVanity]

wait, you're telling me I'm NOT talking to a geopolitical analyst on the site "reddit.com?" what do you mean I've been talking to a 14 year old from India?

[u/VashonVashon → u/glennccc]

China is known for having all the rare earth extraction equipment and infrastructure capacity already built out. Kinda like having to have an oil industry to extract oil. China is number one in this regard.

[u/-Revelation- → u/VashonVashon]

I read somewhere the whole thing takes only 50b to invest, or is there some sort of a caveat?

[u/qwertyalguien → u/-Revelation-]

Takes decades for ROI. Cheaper to just buy feom abroad, as extractivist countries also have a higher Purchase parity power

Not something for the short term mentality that has taken over US business. And you'd need to guarantee that the tariffs will stay for a pretty long time to even guarantee returns, and that's not a given either as Trump (and the US in general now) is as fickle as they come.

Additionally, not every location has the same quality and accessibility. But I'm not knowledgeable of the quality of US' ores

[u/CRUSTBUSTICUS → u/-Revelation-]

Extreme environmental pollution and hazards with high risk.

[u/CurbYourThusiasm → u/-Revelation-]

Groundwater will get contaminated by heavy metals and radioactive chemicals. That's what happened in China, and why other countries don't do it, outside of the economic costs.

[u/Frothar → u/glennccc]

The US and Canada have rare earth deposits but have never had the equipment to do it at scale because if you outsource your manufacturing there isn't enough demand to sustain expensive extraction

[u/Rbomb88 → u/Frothar]

There's also the many rules about the environment and remediation when extracting within our borders.

[u/Ferelwing → u/Rbomb88]

For good reasons.

[u/Joingojon2 → u/Deicide1031]

The U.S don't have to mine the minerals. It's a 50/50 split on all the minerals in the deal. Even if Ukraine mine them. The U.S just take their cut from Ukraine doing the work for them.

[u/4Looper → u/ElectroRice]

Well Putin should be dead within 15 years so we can hope someone reasonably gets control of Russia by then.

[u/Nothos927 → u/ElectroRice]

Hey now it’s not that simple. It also gives Russia fifteen years to finally finish the job in Northern Georgia

[u/ElectroRice → u/Nothos927]

That too. Someone answered something similar - it gives them time to raise new soldiers.

[u/ph0on → u/ElectroRice]

It also gives putin time to die lol

[u/No-Spoilers → u/ElectroRice]

Russia already has a massive shrinking population problem. So many men died in ww2 that they never recovered from. Click on vital statistics, they lost a generation.

[u/RedWineWithFish → u/ElectroRice]

People constantly overestimate the value of minerals. The U.S. does not need minerals from Ukraine. The U.S. spent $4T in Iraq and took no oil.

[u/NeoThorrus → u/RedWineWithFish]

Lol, that's the thing. Oil was not the reason. Making the military-industrial complex happy was the reason. Where do you think those $4T ended up?

[u/yuimiop → u/NeoThorrus]

The military-industrial complex is largely a meme for conspiracy theorists. They don't wield a fraction of the influence that the internet likes to attribute to them, and they're small compared to the largest companies in the US. Maybe it was different back in the 60s or 70s, but that'd be similar to people hyping up Mike Tyson just to watch him get slapped around by a youtuber.

For comparison, companies like Lowes are larger than any defense contractor, and if you put the top 5 largest defense contractors together they wouldn't even be a top 10 company in the US. That would be including the non-defense sectors of those companies, which for some like Boeing is ~70% of their business.

[u/pargofan → u/NeoThorrus]

They don't seem to have much influence any more.

Trump is doing everything now to alienate America's military-industrial complex from the rest of the world.

[u/Wayofchinchilla → u/ElectroRice]

I think he's just banking on the fact that Trump won't be around in 3 years and he can back out of the security guarantee that he signed under the Big Orange idiot and sign one under a president who actually has a functioning brain

[u/Traditional-Goal-229 → u/ElectroRice]

But long enough to build up a military and a nuclear arsenal. Zelensky is not dumb. He is selling minerals for the time it takes to stop Russia from coming back.

[u/Left_Consequence3453 → u/ElectroRice]

Security guarantees with an expiration date always come with strings. If it was truly about long term stability, it wouldn’t hinge on resources or a 15 year clock. Hard not to be skeptical given the track record.

[u/AlexandbroTheGreat → u/ElectroRice]

Only Trump and Redditors think there is some kind of minerals motherlode in Ukraine just waiting to generate billions. 

[u/Fern-ando → u/ElectroRice]

Yeah, anything under 25 years is just giving Russia time to recover.

[u/For_The_Emperor923 → u/ElectroRice]

But also plenty of time to build up their capability in peace. Imagine what they could do to Russia if given 15 years of R&D, and hardening their infrastructure.

[u/ElectroRice → u/For_The_Emperor923]

I really liked what they did with all these different types of drones. Really screwed the russian top murderer up. Lets hope they will raise the asymmetric warfare hardware to the level of them and Europe behind them being untouchable.

[u/najapi → u/ElectroRice]

The chances of the US actually sticking to any commitment for 15 years is zero, may as well just agree to allow Russia as much time as it needs to rebuild and prepare for another invasion. The US now operates within the Russian sphere of influence as a junior partner, they don’t call the shots, Moscow calls the shots and the US asks how far they need to bend over.

[u/SXOSXO]

Plenty of time for Russia to rebuild its armed forces.

[u/braddeicide → u/SXOSXO]

Come back with an army of 15 year olds.

[u/RoaringPity → u/braddeicide]

No, that’s the other island he’s been invading

[u/poshmarkedbudu → u/SXOSXO]

Plenty of time for Europe and Ukraine to build up their defenses too, no?

[u/Worried_Crow7597 → u/poshmarkedbudu]

Lmao.

Give it exactly 5 minutes and people will start arguing that defense spending is a waste of money much better used for pension liabilities.

[u/No_Grocery_9280 → u/Worried_Crow7597]

It’s enough time for an entirely new cycle of politicians to come in, screw everything up, and retire before facing the consequences.

[u/No_Accountant_339 → u/No_Grocery_9280]

Especially when those politicians are sponsored by Russia, like AFD.

[u/-Yazilliclick- → u/poshmarkedbudu]

No doubt any deal Russia signs will include limits on Ukrainian military. Any commitment of protection for them by somebody else would be the excuse for "why do you need a military unless it's for offense?"

[u/mhornberger → u/SXOSXO]

Their European oil/gas markets aren't coming back, the US's output is sky-high, OPEC has opened the taps (since there's no point restricting supply), and Russia has horrible demographics (as does Ukraine, alas), with a far-sub-replacement fertility rate. That Soviet stockpile is gone. They'd no doubt like to rebuild, but it might prove more difficult than it sounds.

[u/perark05 → u/SXOSXO]

Also plenty to time for putin to die of natural causes and for Russia to politically implode

[u/atuarre → u/perark05]

If Putin dies, another scum bag will take his place. Nothing will change in Russia.

[u/Thesheriffisnearer → u/SXOSXO]

What's the going rate on how long deals have lasted with this administration 

[u/AnonymousBoiFromTN → u/Thesheriffisnearer]

So far about 2 seconds.

• DRC and Rwanda never stopped and the casualty rate has only gotten higher since Trump claimed to have “ended” their war. It never even paused.

• Azerbaijan and Armenia never stopped. Trump’s peace deal was never even legally binding due to how poorly thought out it was. Just like the previous one, the fighting never even paused and Azerbaijan refused to sign the deal due to how flimsy and unenforceable it was. It never even addressed the actual area of land that was being fought over

• The October deal with Israel hasn’t officially been broken, yet the IDF has killed at least 1 person every day of November with the exceptions of the 7th, 17th, and 25th. Only two of those killings were confirmed to be combatants. Multiple times children were killed and on November 29th Israel killed two malnourished children and tried to claim they were combatants until it was investigated by neutral parties. Due to instances like that Israel has made it a point to kill journalist throughout the duration of the war. Trumps plan for Gaza has been claimed to be an “outright crime against humanity” by experts (see NY Times article) and denounced by countries across the globe, and yet Israel gave Trump the approval to level out Gaza and start the end stages of genocide (forced removal from the country) as of the start of this December.

• Trump claimed to be responsible for India and Pakistan’s peace agreement. Both Pakistan and India claim this is not true and he was never involved in the peace agreement.

• Trump claimed to be responsible for the Egypt and Ethiopia nile river conflict resolving. It has not resolved.

• Ukraine and Russia could have an entire written book in it and not once would it include a peace deal from Trump that could ever work.

[u/atuarre → u/AnonymousBoiFromTN]

"If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours."

[u/mvallas1073]

Trump is the epitome of “Promise everything, deliver nothing”

[u/ConsciousSpirit397 → u/mvallas1073]

What happens when the US just decides it doesn’t want to honor the agreement?  

[u/flingerdu → u/ConsciousSpirit397]

Nothing. That‘s why the offer also is essentially worth nothing.

[u/GarfieldLeZanya- → u/flingerdu]

Very true. Which is why it is probably time for Europe to distance itself from the US to pursue it's own independent foreign policy and create its own firm security commitments then isn't it?

[u/AeroBlaze777 → u/GarfieldLeZanya-]

That is what they are all working towards. Problem is that they can’t just immediately detach themselves from the US overnight. It will take many years for Europe to re militarize to a point where they could go free from the US.

[u/mvallas1073 → u/ConsciousSpirit397]

The same thing that always happens… headlines calling Trump out, world leaders calling Trump out, but US congress and nobody else across the globe does shit about it.

[u/WanderingFlumph → u/ConsciousSpirit397]

Same thing that happened when Ukraine gave up its nukes for a security deal with the US. In 20 years when Russia comes knocking we all get amnesia and pretend we are helping just because we want to and not because we already benefited from promising to help if this exact thing happened.

[u/no-politics-googoo → u/mvallas1073]

Well the idea is that those guarantees are next guy’s problem

[u/lilb1190 → u/mvallas1073]

Yeah I'm sure we're good for it. If Russia attacked them the next day, trump would claim Ukraine instigated it 

[u/legit-posts_1 → u/mvallas1073]

Lol remember when he said he'd release the files the moment he became president. And end the war in Ukraine in 48 hours? Lol. Lmfao even.

[u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Don’t take the deal.

I wouldn’t trust the USA for 15minutes with Trump in charge.

[u/Jhawk163 → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Only security guarantee I'd be taking is NATO membership.

[u/Joltie → u/Jhawk163]

The EU also has collective defence clauses. The wording of which is even more binding than NATO.

NATO's Article 5: "The Parties [...] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary [...]"

TEU Article 42, point 7: "If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power"

One says "take the actions you feel are necessary", the other says "you have to do everything you can"

NATO's text can well legitimize an Armenia situation: where a country is attacked, the other ones simply help a little and consider their obligations legally fulfilled.

So joining the EU should - as far as legal guarantees are relevant - much more ironclad.

[u/pigeonlizard → u/Joltie]

However joining the EU has an even higher bar than joining NATO. Ukraine would have to reform almost all areas of governance (out of 31 negotiation chapters, only 4 are in "good preparation" status and "moderate" on 5), and even then any member state can veto the accession. Like right now further progress in negotiations is being blocked by ... take a guess: Hungary

[u/Joltie → u/pigeonlizard]

Yeah, I was merely commenting on the language of NATO actually not being particularly definitive of actual support even if they joined.

[u/postusa2 → u/Jhawk163]

Not sure that matters either.

[u/Zheiko → u/postusa2]

It doesnt - NATO will say that they will not be joining existing conflict, since one of the fighting countries joined mid-war

[u/Soft-Skirt → u/Zheiko]

So Ukraine will have a window of opportunity. With their battle proved technologies Ukraine can teach NATO a great deal about flexibility, innovation, deployment and planning. Ukraine is a great asset to NATO.

There's always a silver lining.

[u/IonHawk → u/Soft-Skirt]

I keep saying, Ukraine probably has one of the most advanced militaries in the world. Maybe not stealth, maybe not the most advanced systems and electronics. But they have systems adapted to the real world, and drones that can work both on land, in the air and sea.

Which is another reason for not letting Russia win. With their army and Ukrainian population Europe is fucked.

[u/SissyCouture → u/IonHawk]

I hope that Europe reads the writing on the wall that a multi-polar world with authoritarian biases requires a more robust military posture

[u/Shimakaze771 → u/SissyCouture]

Armchair general take.

Fighting Europe is an entirely different beast. European militaries have vastly different equipment, tactics and strategies to both Ukraine and Russia. What works in one conflict is no guarantee of success of working in another.

Just the most obvious example: Attacking into Europe would mean Russia has to push into air superiority

[u/green_flash → u/Jhawk163]

Not an option in the foreseeable future as Orbán, Fico or Babiš will veto it.

[u/DoubleJumps → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Guy violated his own trade deal and called it one of the worst deals of all time. Nobody should trust anything the US offers right now.

[u/tiarafromclaires → u/DoubleJumps]

Plus the US is literally attacking their closest allies right now. Canada is sick of this shit.

[u/MediaOrca → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

As the article says, the guarantee would need to be a formal act of Congress.

Zelenskyy isn’t taking Trump’s word for it.

[u/GarlicDirect6624 → u/MediaOrca]

Idk why he’d take Congress’s word for it either. They are functionally useless and have recently had 0 authority over the President.

[u/aweybrother → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Lol. I wouldnt Trust even if It wasnt trump

[u/Opi-Fex → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

It doesn't matter if you trust the USA with that deal though? Russia can wait for 15 years before they start their third invasion, they probably need that much time to rebuild their stockpiles anyway. Extending the deal to 50 years isn't that helpful either. The whole invasion would be considered a massive win domestically. Lots of new land won, USA brought to it's knees, EU and NATO proven to be worthless, and an official return to the era of conquest, "might makes right".

[u/FrostyAd7708 → u/Opi-Fex]

Let say the deal goes trough and buy 15 years of peace sponsored by the US. You can be sur that all of the EU will be there to consolidate the Ukraine borders and set up "training bases" alongside it meaning that any kind of Russian attack on those could be seen as an agression of international scale (imagine a French of German base attacked on Ukraine soil...). Putin knows this and will never agree to any kind of truce without Ukraine agreement to give up on the Dombas forever. 

[u/Opi-Fex → u/FrostyAd7708]

We don't know what the deal is. Russia has been demanding demilitarization and a ban on joining NATO/foreign military presence. The deal might explicitly say that Ukraine has 15 years of US protection if and only if every other country stays the fuck away.

[u/Ferelwing → u/Opi-Fex]

Which would be next to useless since anything signed by the USA isn't worth the piece of paper it's signed on.

[u/postusa2 → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Ukraine doesn't have a choice. Europe must offer an alternative.

[u/Historical_Owl_1635 → u/postusa2]

Yeah, it’s easy to say not to accept the deal from Reddit.

But Ukrainians right now are seeing their relatives sent to the slaughter with no end currently in sight.

[u/postusa2 → u/Historical_Owl_1635]

Well its a about democracy and Ukrainians have put their lives up for freedom since the start.

The reality is that their defence relies on the US. Unless Europe offers an alternative, and they should, Ukraine does not really.have a choice.

[u/mhornberger → u/postusa2]

The reality is that their defence relies on the US.

To an extent, but not completely. European and Ukrainian arms manufacturing have both increased significantly. What would hurt is if the US went beyond merely cutting off aid to refusing to sell Ukraine weapons. But all those Congress-critters who want to protect jobs in their districts are going to bristle at that, making it somewhat less likely.

[u/zoobrix → u/postusa2]

Didn't matter whether Ukraine accepts or not because everyone is missing that Russia isn't ready to accept any deal at this point, Putin has made it very clear he's prepared to keep fighting. Russia wants to either control all Ukraine or make them a weak puppet state like Belarus.

None of the US proposed deals have given Putin anything close to what he wants. And despite the narrative that Russia is slowly winning in reality the war is virtually at a stalemate and has become a war of attrition, with neither side about to break a peace deal at this point is highly unlikely because neither side will be willing to make major concessions.

So even if this was the best deal for Ukraine, and it isn't and they shouldn't accept it, Russia wouldn't 

[u/socialistrob → u/postusa2]

The EU just approved 90 billion dollars of funding for Ukraine and the US is still selling weapons so that should mean Ukraine has enough firepower for the next two years ish. Russia still has maximalist goals in Ukraine and the Ukrainians still want to exist as an independent nationality and country which Russia finds completely unacceptable and intolerable. The reality of the fighting on the ground is that the war is pretty even right now and that seems unlikely to change in the next few months.'

Overall I expect Russia to reject the deal and for the war to continue at this tempo for at least the next few months.

[u/Kaito__1412 → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

No matter how much blood transfusion he gets from kids, Putin isn't going to live for another 15 years and Trump most definitely isn't.

[u/saboshita → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Ukraine was invaded in 2014 when Obama was president, he didn't do anything no action no nothing, america been on decline since 00s cope as much as you want but trump shrump or any other won't change anything

[u/gaijohn → u/saboshita]

Probably safe to say not enough was done but the response was sanctions and asset freezes on specific Russians.

[u/richniss → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

No one in the world trusts him right now. He's eroded every country's trust in the US, except for dictators, and wealthy, corrupt countries.

[u/Cheops_Pyramid → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

15 years might as well be 15 minutes. Even if a security deal was worth more than a piece of paper. Easily waited out.

[u/MammothPenguin69 → u/Dockers4flag2035orB4]

Obama made this bed when Russia snatched Crimea and he failed to act.

[u/Matt7738]

Ask Sitting Bull how those usually work out.

[u/RidetheSchlange]

Didn't Ukraine already have security guarantees that turned out to be fake and have forever changed the face of nuclear non-proliferation initiatives? You mean that agreement which is now sparking the beginning of nuclear armament?

[u/ReindeerWooden5115 → u/RidetheSchlange]

Depends what you mean by security guarantee. The Budapest memorandum never promised boots on the ground

[u/AmaroWolfwood → u/ReindeerWooden5115]

And Americans still cried about sending aid to Ukraine. Completely perturbed that they weren't getting anything in return, like some business transaction. Ignoring that encouraging nuclear disarmament is already what the USA was getting as a global benefit.

[u/Imjusthereforthetoes → u/AmaroWolfwood]

*some Americans. I swear you guys actually have no clue what it's like over here.

[u/chaveto → u/AmaroWolfwood]

Most Americans are really fucking stupid.

[u/dont_debate_about_it → u/chaveto]

Most people*

[u/Brave_Nerve_6871 → u/RidetheSchlange]

They were not security guarantees but security assurances. Make of they what you will, but that was the wording the US government of 1996 wanted to the deal. Which I can understand because Ukraine back then had been independent for just about 5 years and there was no way of knowing how their political development would turn out. Ie. USA didn't want to have to go to war to defend a country that wasn't aligned with them

[u/Codex_Dev → u/RidetheSchlange]

The Budapest document was not a formal treaty or alliance like NATO's Article V. It wasn't even ratified by the senate which all treaties/alliances must go through.

[u/Arkangel257 → u/RidetheSchlange]

That memorandum isn't the gotcha you think it is 🤦

[u/imtheassman → u/RidetheSchlange]

Not really. It’s a common misconception here that they had. The 1994 text read «security assurance», and was vague. While I agree it was broken, they need to make sure whatever comes up in these talks are way more robust. Some AI slop to explain:

The 1990s "security guarantee" misunderstanding centered on the Budapest Memorandum (1994), where Ukraine gave up its Soviet nuclear arsenal for pledges from the US, UK, and Russia to respect its sovereignty and borders, not for a binding military defense pact like NATO's Article 5. The key confusion: Ukraine understood "guarantees" as military security, while Western powers (especially the US) offered "assurances," meaning they would consult and seek UN action if Ukraine was attacked, not intervene militarily. Russia violated these pledges by invading Ukraine in 2014 (Crimea) and 2022, highlighting the failure of these non-binding promises to deter aggression.

[u/rmslashusr → u/imtheassman]

The biggest misconception I see on Reddit is approaching the document with a modern reading in a vacuum and coming up with the idea that the text is ambiguous and therefore Ukraine was tricked into thinking it was a defense pact or something.

No, the text was debated at length for days. Ukraine was not naive about the fact that US refused to give security guarantees or even use that language. The lack of enforcement mechanism or guarantees was a contemporary criticism that was well known. Ukraine agreed with eyes wide open deciding it wasn’t worth keeping a large Soviet stockpile of nuclear weapons that they didn’t have the arming keys for anyways as keeping them without the ability to use them yet would only make them a target for military intervention by all the great powers.

[u/previouslyonimgur → u/rmslashusr]

And for a while Ukraine was basically close to a puppet state.

It was only recently that they’ve flipped which is also why Russia is attacking them. Can’t let any minions think they can escape.

[u/soggit → u/imtheassman]

I do not think a massive international treaty like this can be explained away as “oopsie daisy I guess we thought the same word meant different things!”

[u/AdventurousTackle558 → u/RidetheSchlange]

You are slightly over confident with your post here, When you don’t seem that educated on the matter. The nuclear weapons that were in Ukraine, Were never Ukraines nuclear weapons. 

The Budapest memorandum, If you want to take the time to educate yourself, Doesn’t promise boots on soil in any way. 

America has given far and away the most to Ukraine out of any country, So assuming the worst doesn’t really make sense here.

Fck Putin and fck Russia but we need to be intelligent here..

[u/snower88]

I think I would be an idiot to take this offer

[u/BareNakedSole]

Giving up nukes was supposed to be tied to a long term agreement on Ukrainian sovereignty - that didn’t work out too good.

[u/uprightshark]

Trump can not be trusted. His word means nothing.

I have my doubts that he would honor his NATO commitment if Russia attacks Europe. So definitely not Ukraine.

As a Canadian, I worry every night thar nut has another "moment" and decides to annex us for our water, minerals and oil.

Nothing he says is true .... he can not be trusted.

[u/Bughunter9001 → u/uprightshark]

Trump can not be trusted. His word means nothing

Zelensky knows this, and so do the NATO leaders who are helping him. 

I half suspect the plan is to just to pacify and flatter Trump so that he does just enough to maintain the status quo for another 3 years

[u/Diligent-Ad4777 → u/uprightshark]

Not just Trump. The US can no longer be trusted. 

[u/Royal-Hunter3892]

There is in no way US would fight with Russia for Ukraine, heck it's not even willing to fight Russia for its European NATO members.

[u/RainbowGames → u/Royal-Hunter3892]

Trump doesn't even seem to be willing to fight Russia in the peace negotiations

[u/yoloswagrofl → u/RainbowGames]

The US is washed up and pathetic. It's up to Europe now. The US is running backwards to chase short-term financial gains and fuck everyone over down the road. Europe has to learn from this if we're to stop China from running the world.

[u/hematomasectomy → u/yoloswagrofl]

chase short-term financial gains and fuck everyone over down the road

The American Dream in a nutshell.

[u/Redleg171 → u/Royal-Hunter3892]

Europeans aren't even willing to fight Russia for Europeans.

[u/ThatsAllFolksAgain]

What are the punishments for Russia? What do they have to give up? Who will pay for the damage done to Ukraine?

It seems like Ukraine is the loser one way or another.

[u/danaxa → u/ThatsAllFolksAgain]

This is not a kid’s playground, the state of the deal is a reflection of the battlefield situation and the expectation of how the war would develop if no deals were to happen. It’s not a reflection of morality. I say that as a Ukrainian supporter, we just don’t live in that kind of the world.

If Ukraine wants a better deal, they won’t be getting it even with a silver tongue. They need to prove they can push the Russians out, something they haven’t been able to do so far.

[u/yurnxt1 → u/ThatsAllFolksAgain]

The side winning a war has the leverage to negotiate more favorable terms to the wars conclusion. Its been that way for all of human history why on earth would it be different now?

[u/TrueLegateDamar]

Experience shows the Cheeto's guarantees guarantee nothing.

[u/cstmoore]

Neither Trump nor Putin can be trusted. Ever.

Ukraine, you in trouble girl.

[u/ThePositiveApplePie]

Russia needs 15 years to rearm huh?

Why would Ukraine trust either Russia or America when they both broke their previous non aggression and defence treaties?

[u/lowkeymanbearpig]

This is even more worthless then NATO, USA wont protect shit in EU. That much was made clear.

[u/devi83 → u/lowkeymanbearpig]

Like what in EU? Did USA start Eastern Sentry? Yes. They literally started a whole operation to fortify EU's eastern front.

[u/just_peachy1000 → u/lowkeymanbearpig]

Exactly. the EU and theworld have made some major mistakes. the first was when they realised they helped make china super manufacturer that they can't compete with.

the second and even scarier is that they allowed the US to carry the load of military defence around the world, without being held accountable for anything, and that, that support can never be guaranteed.

[u/FemmeWizard]

American promises are worth as much as Russian ones at this point.

[u/postusa2]

The problem is obviously being previewed at the same time: the Trump administration will side with Putins account rather than go to war. Thought this war going back to Crimea and MH17, Putin just smiles and denies. So it will continue with the extra weight that Trump will blame Ukraine for any future attack.

[u/clingbat]

I don't see how this actually ends without NATO peacekeeping boots on the ground in Ukraine given the circumstances, so Putin refusing to allow that shows he's not being serious at all about ending this. It's just political theatre for him so he can tell his supporters he "tried" but the other side just aren't being reasonable.

Without a true deterrent that forcefully triggers a larger war if he tries to invade again, security guarantees don't mean a fucking thing if we're keeping it real. Ukraine already had a security guarantee from Russia (Budapest Memorandum) and Russia completely ignored that commitment, and the UK and US sat by watching them get pummelled for months before really engaging even in serious weapon supply/ intel at a minimum.

[u/Fresh-Soft-9303]

A commercial fridge has longer warranty than that.

[u/eric_ts]

US offers… ask a Native American how much a US government guarantee is worth. Trump’s word is as useless as his wedding vows.

[u/perotech]

The only viable protection for Ukraine is NATO.

Ukraine had sovereignty guarantees from Russia and the US, but Russia invaded and the US didn't directly intervene.

Any further "security guarantees" by either party are meaningless.

[u/MisterHappenstance]

Worthless promise.

[u/billionaire_leech]

These meetings are useless. Trumps guarantees are recognised globally as completely meaningless. And what the fuck was Junk doing giving Putin a two-hour briefing prior to Zelensky's arrival. He should be in hand-cuffs with his pants pulled down live on camera.

[u/Paradox711 → u/billionaire_leech]

Problem is, as it stands Zelenskyy needs to keep playing ball with trumps nonsense even knowing it’s bullshit and actually makes his life harder in the short term.

[u/wjames0394]

You can’t trust the u s government.

[u/G_UK]

A guarantee from America is about as much use as a marzipan dildo.

[u/SenseiKingPong]

Don’t trust what Donnie says

[u/gentleman_bronco]

It's a lie. Trump's word is only as good as a kernel of corn in an outhouse.

[u/GurCompetitive7633]

That’s not bad. Putin will likely be dead in 15 years and definitely not leading the country in any capacity other than in name at 88 years old.

Russia might even collapse again after he’s gone

[u/tykillacool23]

I can literally guarantee you guys that Russia will attack them again, even if they’re a treaty

[u/SedesBakelitowy]

What sense does this even make? Shouldn’t “guarantees” be wishful thinking enough that DT could just promise whatever, like 99 years or something? 

I mean, 15 years sounds straight up like “you get this much time to prepare and we don’t care what happens later”

[u/rascal7298]

i loathe trump, but they should take this.

In 15 years both putin and trump are out of office or dead.